May 12, 2015
Michael Clifford
2015-05-12
Montreal/Tampa Bay Game 6, Ryan Callahan’s injury, Chris Kreider’s fantasy value, and thoughts on Anton Stralman.
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After falling down in the series three games to zero, the Montreal Canadiens have an opportunity tonight to force a Game 7. All they need to do is go to Tampa Bay and get out with a win. They did take Game 4 in Tampa Bay by a score of 6-2, but in the regular season, the Habs were outscored 11-3 in two games at the Amalie Arena, being outshot by 24 in those two contests (though to be fair, that margin all came in one game).
The big news here is that Lightning forward Ryan Callahan had to undergo an emergency appendectomy and will be out for this series. Should Tampa Bay move on, he may be ready later in the Eastern Conference Final. That's speculation for another time, and I'll get back to Callahan eventually.
As I mentioned in a Ramblings last week, the Habs were due for a major shooting percentage correction. Montreal is starting to get back to normalcy at five-on-five (via War On Ice), and four even-strength goals in Game 4 certainly helped in that regard. The Habs are still shooting 3.3-percent on the power play, after shooting just shy of 12-percent in the regular season. Their movement and scoring opportunities with the man advantage looked much better in Game 5, and if that power play can reel off a couple of big games (as the shooting correction suggests), this could get dicey for the Lightning
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I know Callahan hasn't produced for Tampa these playoffs (three assists and no goals in 12 games), but he did produce at a first line rate in the regular season; Callahan finished inside the top-90 in points per 60 minutes at both five-on-five and all situations (from Hockey Analysis). This is a loss for Tampa Bay, who will now likely turn to Jonathan Drouin, a guy that can't get coach Jon Cooper's trust.
I think there is room for growth with Kreider. As he becomes more of a focal point of the Rangers attack and plays 16-17 minutes a night, there's no reason to think he can't be a 25-goal, 55-point guy who racks penalty minutes and is fine in the shot on goal department. Assuming the Rangers are good again next year, I have a hard time thinking Kreider doesn't push to be a top-25 roto forward in 2015-2016.
Kreider is an absolute physical freak, too. He's big, fast, and very strong. The video below demonstrates just how good of an athlete he is (and this was two years ago):
It's funny how often people freak over bad performances from established players. Remember when Henrik Lundqvist was getting lit up at the start of the 2013-2014 season, and also at the start of this year? Well he's second among playoff goalies (minimum five games) in overall save percentage, and has a better five-on-five save percentage over the last two years than goalies like Sergei Bobrovsky, Semyon Varlamov, and Jonathan Quick. Is that good?
Maybe Lundqvist slows down towards the end of his contract, but for now, he's still The King. Maybe we shouldn't freak out if he has a stretch of bad games in October.
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Eventually, teams will stop using and/or signing defensemen like Tim Gleason. Sure, he's tough and can block shots, but over the last two years, he's 198th out of 203 defensemen in five-on-five goal differential (GoalsFor percentage). He played on bad teams, but since he's joined Washington, he's pretty much break-even in goals for relative to the Capitals, and that's playing third pairing minutes. That's not very good.
It sucks to say because as a youngin', I was a defenseman that was "tough and blocked shots." Looking back, I just wasn't very skilled.
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The Anaheim Ducks are in the Western Conference Final, but had a scare in their closing second round game when Corey Perry looked to hyperextend his knee on a hit from Calgary's Matt Stajan.
Perry came back and scored the overtime winner (of course), but had he been lost for any amount of time, it would have been disaster for the Ducks. Think about this:
Without Corey Perry on the ice with him, from 2007-2014, Ryan Getzlaf's possession rate drops six percent (which is massive), and Anaheim's goals against goes up by half a goal per 60 minutes. Those numbers are similar with Perry when he isn't with Getzlaf, so the Ducks should be thanking their lucky stars Perry seems to be fine.
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