December 17, 2015

steve laidlaw

2015-12-17

Rask is playing like a world-beater again, Justin Williams keeps hanging around, Hammond returns and more.

Anyone else remember when Justin Williams couldn’t stay healthy? It’s been a while but that was once a stigma on Williams. Well he has missed just one game over the previous four seasons. Somehow he has become more reliable in his 30’s.

This season, Williams is just playing in all the games but he looks really good too. Last season he looked sluggish, as though the multiple years of extended playoff runs had taken their toll. A missed post-season might have been the best thing for Williams.

Williams is back to being fantasy relevant as well as he is on pace for 52 points after averaging 42 the past two seasons. It’s amazing what an extra 10 points can do for someone’s fantasy stock but it’s true. If he was on pace for another 42-point season, Williams would likely be languishing on a lot more waiver wires.

Of course, the difference between a 42-point pace and a 52-point pace at this point is only the matter of a couple of points so Williams could easily veer of course. Indeed he has scored just six points in 14 games in the past month.

The underlying numbers look good for Williams as there are no off-the-chart percentages helping him to produce over his head. Williams is skating more minutes than he did in Los Angeles last year and is shooting the puck more as well.

Just had to point out Williams because when I scooped him up off waivers early this year he wasn’t a guy I expected to keep for very long and maybe I should have dumped him in the past month but he hasn’t had any extended runs without production so I haven’t felt the need to make a move. In fact, Williams’ run of three straight scoreless outings, which ended last night, was his longest of the season.

Alexander Ovechkin is currently riding a three-game scoreless drought and it is his second of such length already this season, which is crazy to consider when you look at just how much power-play time he receives. Indeed, Ovechkin is back to double-shifting on both power-play units. Only four guys see more power-play minutes than Ovechkin: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Erik Karlsson, PK Subban and Mikkel Boedker.

Tom Wilson received a match penalty for a blindside hit on Curtis Lazar. Whether you think the hit warrants more discipline or not there is an expanding book of questionable acts by Wilson. I am starting to think that this is a player playing his way out of the league instead of into a bigger role within it.

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Andrew Hammond played a great game in his return to the lineup after over a month off. Not exactly an easy opponent either. Hammond will be key to the Senators sticking in the playoff race because with two goalies on their game this team can be something. Given what they ask of their goalies having just one is almost certainly not enough.

Quiet night for the Senators’ offense but it is understandable. They got Holtby-ed.

Question in the Dobber Hockey forums: Mark Stone vs. Jakub Voracek?

I’d call this one a dead heat but if forced to make a choice I’m picking Stone. I don’t know if that’s recency bias or just looking to be contrarian but that’s where my head is at. It just feels like the foundation in Ottawa is more stable. Maybe if Voracek was skating with Claude Giroux still I might feel differently.

The point is that Stone is on this level. We’ve got him up against a guy with pedigree coming off of an 81-point season and there is good reason to take Stone. Awesome player.

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Tuukka Rask, ladies and gentlemen. The season-long numbers still aren’t there just yet but they are improving every day. He hasn’t had a bad game in a month with a run of nine straight starts with three goals allowed or less, all but one of which was a quality start. The Bruins earned points in all of those including seven wins and three shutouts.

ELITE!

Jimmy Hayes scored his first goal since November 5th, a run of 16 straight games with a goal plus some healthy scratches thrown in for good measure. He can score in bunches but there’s no way I’m hopping on board until he is back in the top six. Just 9:21 of action for Hayes last night.

Ryan Spooner is going on another tear as he also scored a couple of points. He is much more believable as a member of the top power-play unit. Spooner is like Boston’s Mathieu Perreault. Skating on a lower line and without the big name he mixes in enough playmaking to stick on a top PP unit with some absolute studs and scores just enough to stay relevant. 50 points, here we come.

Alexander Khokhlachev was back in the lineup but skated just 7:55, which totally defeats the purpose if you ask me. Why even bother calling him up if he isn’t getting a bigger role? He doesn’t necessarily deserve a bigger role. I am at the point where it’s a matter of when, not if, Khokhlachev goes back to Russia, though I’d love to be proven wrong.

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Jeff Zatkoff played a heck of a game stopping 26 of 28 in a losing effort. I’m of the mind that the guy to go after is Matt Murray. Just more talented. And I do think that Murray is worth pursuing in one-year formats for the simple fact that we don’t know how long Marc-Andre Fleury will be out.

If Fleury has a concussion how in the hell do they have a timeline for him?

Fleury could miss any amount of time and I wouldn’t be surprised. Concussions are just touch and go like that. So the proactive move is to grab Murray. That’s my new stance on this situations. Get in early. Even if Fleury gets back before Murray has a chance to settle in, there’s enough upside to make the acquisition worth it depending on who you drop.

Trevor Daley skated 18:40 in his Penguins debut 3:03 of which came on the power play. He led all Penguins’ blueliners in PP time though a good chunk of his minutes came with the second unit rather than the first. It was David Warsofsky instead who saw top unit minutes.

All told, Daley was fairly invisible. Even on the stat sheet he came up with donuts across the board. I won’t base anything on just one game, however.

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No Nick Bonino for the Penguins as the injury bug continues to take its toll. Well, in Bonino’s case it was just illness but a loss nonetheless.

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I have been competing in daily fantasy quite a bit lately though I have to admit to losing more than I am winning right now. I am fairly committed to improving things though. I look for and soak up advice wherever I can find it, be it one-on-one conversations with pros, podcasts, articles, projections, etc.

I have found the mentality of creating a new lineup every day to be very rewarding. I think it has improved my overall fantasy skills by forcing me to really evaluate which players I trust. In the case of guys like Giroux, Rask and Sergei Bobrovsky, preaching patience has proven to be the right move but with other guys it just hasn’t paid off to the same degree. Coming from the daily perspective you would “dump” these players much faster.

Of course, since the player pool resets every night you aren’t dumping these guys for good so in the year-long pools there is definitely still value in patience that daily fantasy simply does not reward. The point being that I am finding value in this different perspective.

I have been waiting for a slow night for NHL action to bring up this foray into daily fantasy and last night was certainly the night. It was really an interesting one to be playing daily fantasy. I was fortunate enough to cash in most of the leagues that I participated in, mostly thanks to Rask’s brilliance.

One thing I noticed looking over the competition in most of my leagues was a whole bunch of daily fantasy professionals so I was probably lucky to have cashed in. Looking over some of the names it looked a heck of a lot like the scene in Rounders where all the poker pros were in Atlantic City taking money off of each other but mostly picking off suckers.

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Just as the Flames offense was really perking up they lose an important two-way guy in Michael Frolik who is out indefinitely. No real specifics as of yet but it doesn’t sound all that positive.

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It sounds like the Rangers are expecting Derek Stepan and Kevin Klein back on Friday, which means they should get their defensive game back on track after what was a woeful Western road trip.

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Some good stuff in Elliotte Friedman’s latest 30 Thoughts:

7. That wasn’t the only trade proposal I came up with. If Colorado decides it can’t (or won’t) sign Tyson Barrie, wonder if Vancouver, badly needing a defenceman, makes a play.

Would the Canucks do Ben Hutton and Jake Virtanen? Could see them trying Virtanen and Yannick Weber, but I’m not sure that would be enough. Just spitballing. Thank goodness there’s a real trade to talk about.

My brain can’t comprehend the possibility of Barrie skating with the Sedins.

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Check out my latest Waiver Wednesday piece for six players worth snagging off the waiver wire.

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Sportsnet has an excellent profile on PK Subban that is worth your time.

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Sean McIndoe ranks the GMs most likely to deliver a mid-season trade.

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Thanks for reading. You can follow me on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw.

One Comment

  1. krisco 2015-12-17 at 17:30

    No mention of Conor Sheary's first game with the Pens, by all accounts he had a pretty solid first game, was 4th in ice time (for forwards) and saw regular shifts with Geno… and even got onto PP1 for a shift, Coach Sullivan said "…he was terrific…"

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