Ramblings: Building the Eastern Conference Fantasy All-Star Teams (Jan. 29)
steve laidlaw
2016-01-29
Nicklas Backstrom and the Capitals dominate as we name the Atlantic and Metro Division Fantasy Hockey All-Stars.
With no games to report on this All-Star Weekend there isn’t a ton to react to. The reprieve is a great opportunity to reflect on the first half of the season and outline some of this season’s most important fantasy contributors. Sticking with the All-Star theme let’s build some All-Star rosters based on the top fantasy contributors from the first half. Just like the NHL, we will build a team for each division with six forwards, three defensemen and two goalies and each team from each division must be represented. Our rosters may not differ all that much from those selected for the real All-Star game, we’ll just have to see. Because of the rule that each team must be represented, and the positional scarcity of the goaltending and defense positions we will start with those two before moving on to the forwards. Here we go!
The Atlantic
Goaltenders
The Contenders
Ben Bishop – 19-14-3 – 2.02 GAA – 0.926 Sv% – 2 Shutouts
Bishop has been named an All-Star by the NHL but he falls short in the fantasy department though not for lack of effort. Bishop’s average draft position saw him as the sixth goaltender taken and he has lived up to that performing even better than last season. The early struggles by the Lightning offense certainly cost Bishop some wins and a likely spot on this fantasy All-Star squad.
James Reimer – 8-8-6 – 2.10 GAA – 0.932 Sv% – 0 Shutouts
Drafted in just 2% of leagues, Reimer has given a huge boost to fantasy owners who were quickest to the waiver wire. Stiff competition is enough to keep Reimer off this team.
The Picks
Roberto Luongo – 22-13-4 – 2.08 GAA – 0.930 Sv% – 4 Shutouts
On average the 13th goalie off the board has been the best goalie on most fantasy teams instead of being a good #2. That incredible value is only surpassed by the Atlantic backup.
Petr Mrazek – 18-9-4 – 2.03 GAA – 0.932 Sv – 3 Shutouts
Goaltending has held the Red Wings in the playoffs. After some early competition from Jimmy Howard, Mrazek has taken control of the Detroit crease and is delivering a top-five goalie performance despite being on average the 31st goalie off the board. Somehow, he is owned in just 80% of leagues, if you can believe it.
Defense
The Contenders
Aaron Ekblad – 10 G – 11 A – Plus-19 – 6 PPP – 108 SOG
On average the 18th defenseman off the board has been steady and vitally important to the Florida Panthers but in terms of value it’s hard to say Ekblad is doing more than simply living up to his draft position.
Dion Phaneuf – 3 G – 19 A – Minus-3 – 7 PPP – 105 SOG
Phaneuf remains a stud in rotisserie leagues and was woefully overlooked as the 41st defenseman off the board on average. The bounce-back in SOG production is an excellent development but the continued absence of goal production sees Phaneuf fall just short.
The Picks
Erik Karlsson – 11 G – 41 A – Plus-3 – 18 PPP – 145 SOG
He is basically a cheat code.
PK Subban – 4 G – 33 A – Plus-6 – 18 PPP – 134 SOG
The Canadiens are in freefall but don’t blame Subban who has lived up to the hype as the second defenseman off the board. Sure, he hasn’t been the second best fantasy defenseman this season but coming in at #3 isn’t much of a drop.
Rasmus Ristolainen – 8 G – 23 A – Minus-14 – 14 PPP – 118 SOG
The plus/minus rating is an issue but Ristolainen’s breakout performance is a huge part of the Sabres returning to respectability. He is also providing top-25 defenseman numbers after being drafted in just 6% of leagues. That’s excellent value.
Forwards
The Contenders
Mike Hoffman – 22 G – 17 A – Plus-8 – 9 PPP – 141 SOG
Hoffman makes this team if the last three weeks didn’t happen but with a tight field there is just no room to let up. With just five points in 12 games in January Hoffman has fallen off enough to lose his spot.
Dylan Larkin – 15 G – 18 A – Plus-24 – 2 PPP – 127 SOG
Larkin is a star. Check out this excellent profile on Larkin:
Sometimes in Detroit, a young player comes in and respectfully tries to feed Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg the puck. Larkin has maintained respect for the Red Wings' veterans, but if the right play is for him to shoot it, he's shooting it.
Red Wings coach Jeff Blashill noticed that mindset immediately when Larkin showed up to play for Blashill and Grand Rapids in the Calder Cup playoffs last spring after competing in the World Championships.
"He was playing with Teemu Pulkkinen, who tore up the American League last year. He was in the offensive zone and had a chance to force a pass to Pulkkinen," Blashill said. "Instead, he made what he thought was the best play."
Same thing with Zetterberg.
"He doesn't just pass to Z because Z is Z. He's only passed when he thought it was the right thing to do," Blashill said. "That to me showed a huge maturity and huge confidence level. I don't think you can have success as a young player if you're deferring to guys all the time."
This is so incredibly important. Look at Ryan Strome on Long Island. He is constantly deferring to others instead of just making the appropriate play. Having the wherewithal, maturity and confidence to not be starstruck but rather to just play the way you have for years is a big hurdle for many young players.
As far as the fantasy numbers go, Larkin hasn’t been exceptional since starting out at a point-per-game pace for the first month. The underlying numbers suggest he has been extremely fortunate to boast such a strong plus/minus and you see those power-play points? Just not enough power-play time to be a fantasy All-Star. The best fantasy skater on the Red Wings is Pavel Datsyuk but he missed too much time for consideration.
Brad Marchand – 20 G – 12 A – Plus-12 – 6 PPP – 142 SOG
Marchand is having a breakout season, with an outside shot at cracking the 60-point barrier. He can thank some added power-play time for some of it but more importantly, Marchand has boosted his shot production by nearly one per game while losing little for efficiency. Unfortunately, extracurriculars have cost him some games that fantasy owners can’t get back and that is enough to keep him off this team.
Aleksander Barkov – 13 G – 18 A – Plus-12 – 8 PPP – 95 SOG
I would love to force him in here but Barkov just hasn’t done enough. He missed a bunch of games due to injury, which has become a real theme so far in Barkov’s career. It is still #@*$ing unbelievable that he is owned in less than half of all leagues.
Max Pacioretty – 19 G – 17 A – Minus-5 – 11 PPP – 195 SOG
Pacioretty just misses the cut. A disastrous December with just five points in 14 games crippled his All-Star hopes. That SOG total is nearly enough to help him make the cut anyhow but he falls just short.
The Picks
Patrice Bergeron – 19 G – 25 A – Plus-10 – 20 PPP – 173 SOG
Note the 20 power-play points listed above. That’s the most Bergeron has had in a season since 2006-07. The Bruins moving to a stacked #1 PP unit is a huge reason why he is on pace for a career high 75 points. All this comes after a 55-point season that saw him slip way down the pre-draft rankings.
Nikita Kucherov – 20 G – 21 A – Plus-2 – 18 PPP – 119 SOG
Amazingly, the Lightning still need to find a representative but Kucherov is an easy choice. While he started slow with just three points in 12 October games thanks to some injuries to linemates Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson as well as some plain old struggles, Kucherov has been money since with 38 points in 37 games.
Ryan O’Reilly – 17 G – 23 A – Minus-16 – 17 PPP – 114 SOG
The Sabres have two All-Stars? Absolutely! Only 20 players have more points than O’Reilly yet he was picked on average around the 160th pick in fantasy leagues. That kind of value is unassailable.
Leo Komarov – 16 G – 15 A – Plus-5 – 7 PPP – 92 SOG
He might be doing it with smoke and mirrors (a 17% shooting percentage) but Komarov has produced incredible numbers for fantasy owners, including rocking a positive rating on this Leafs team. Komarov has added value as one of the league’s top hitters if your league scores such categories. Ultimately the Leafs needed to find a representative from somewhere and while they came close with Reimer and Phaneuf, Komarov gets the call.
Bobby Ryan – 18 G – 25 P – Plus-2 – 12 PPP – 117 SOG
Ryan’s rejuvenation has flown well under the radar thanks to some bigger storylines on his own team but for fantasy owners the only Senator who has been better is Karlsson, who also makes this team. While most of his teammates have slumped, Ryan has kept on producing and thanks to finally seeing power-play minutes Ryan is flourishing.
Steven Stamkos – 21 G – 17 A – Minus-5 – 17 PPP – 145 SOG
Even though he has performed better of late Stamkos has still been a fantasy flop. On average the third skater off the board, Stamkos hasn’t even been close to providing value for those who drafted him. Still, thanks to a last minute poll he makes the team.
Need to firm up the final Atlantic forward slot for my Fantasy All-Star rosters, who you got?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) January 28, 2016
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The Metro
Goaltenders
The Contenders
There are none because…
The Picks
Braden Holtby – 30-5-3 – 2.07 GAA – 0.929 Sv% – 2 Shutouts
The best goalie in fantasy hockey.
Cory Schneider – 22-15-5 – 2.03 GAA – 0.929 Sv% – 4 Shutouts
Criminally underrated for far too long. Schneider has held a save percentage above 0.920 in every season at the NHL level barring his first two where he played a combined 10 games of which he started just six. He is awesome. Period. And he is keeping the offensively starved Devils in the playoff race. Remember a couple of years ago when the Devils were intent on giving a mummified Martin Brodeur starts over Schneider? That seems so silly now. The 10th goalie off the board in your average league, Schneider has produced like a top-five commodity.
Defensemen
The Contenders
John Carlson – 6 G – 21 A – Plus-6 – 12 PPP – 87 SOG
Carlson was able to return for Washington’s last game before the break but had previously last played on Boxing Day as an injury has cost him his iron man streak. Carlson hadn’t missed a game since turning pro full time. Losing a month of action is enough to drop him off the roster.
Keith Yandle – 3 G – 23 A – Plus-5 – 8 PPP – 99 SOG
Yandle is woefully underused and underappreciated in New York. With the Coyotes, he was skating almost 25 minutes a night, with the Rangers he has been under 20. It is a disservice to him, his team and his fantasy owners who jumped all over him at the draft table making him the 12th defenseman off the board. How Yandle can continue to drive possession and generate scoring chances better than any other defenseman on the Rangers and still see third pairing minutes is crazy. He is seeing fewer minutes than Dan Boyle. They don’t know what they have.
Ryan McDonagh – 6 G – 18 A – Plus-10 – 9 PPP – 87 SOG
A better real life defenseman than fantasy defenseman, McDonagh has nevertheless been good in the make-believe realm. After starting slow with just one point in October, McDonagh has turned it on to provide value for owners. It’s too bad so many of the folks who made McDonagh the 19th defenseman off the board bailed out after his slow start. Instead, he was someone else’s waiver treasure. Seems folly to reward that.
The Picks:
Justin Faulk – 14 G – 19 A – Minus-14 – 16 PPP – 154 SOG
This is the easiest pick of them all. There is no one even remotely close to All-Star calibre on the Hurricanes other than Faulk. Can you imagine him on a team that could score? He would be right up there with Brent Burns and Oliver Ekman-Larsson fighting for second in the defenseman scoring race. Faulk has two fewer power-play goals than the rest of his team combined.
Kris Letang – 6 G – 27 A – Minus-12 – 17 PPP – 111 SOG
Letang’s injuries have cost him 10 games already but you knew he would miss time before you drafted him. Letang missed 104 games over the previous four seasons. It’s a part of the package and it’s why Letang was just the 12th defenseman selected on average. Despite missing time, Letang has still returned good value for where he was picked, which is enough to earn him an All-Star bid in a Metro Division thin on defense.
Shayne Gostisbehere – 8 G – 14 A – Plus-5 – 11 PPP – 66 SOG
He wasn’t drafted in anything but the most hardcore of leagues and didn’t even play a game until after Remembrance Day but since getting called up to replace an injured Mark Streit, Gostisbehere has been nothing short of spectacular. Not even the return of Streit to the lineup has slowed Gostisbehere down. The ultimate waiver wire wonder. If you were quickest on the draw you have reaped plenty of benefits. Bonus points to Gostisbehere for being the catalyst behind turnarounds for slow starters Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek.
Forwards
The Contenders
John Tavares – 16 G – 18 A – Minus-5 – 9 PPP – 139 SOG
This is just lip service as Tavares does not belong on any fantasy All-Star roster. He was the fifth player off the board on average and he hasn’t even provided a top-50 return.
Fantasy All-Star Roster: Which Islander forward has provided the most fantasy value?
— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) January 25, 2016
That was a test, and over half of you failed.
Mike Cammalleri – 14 G – 24 A – Plus-15 – 10 PPP – 101 SOG
Even after missing the first two weeks of January Cammalleri still warrants consideration. That’s how good he has been. Cammalleri is the offensive hub for a team devoid of offense otherwise (although Kyle Palmieri deserves a shout out.) If not for the rules requiring a player off of each team to be represented Cammalleri would be on this team. Little consolation but that’s all you’ll get.
Claude Giroux – 14 G – 25 A – Minus-6 – 16 PPP – 132 SOG
Since his breakout in 2011, Giroux has the most points of anyone in the NHL. He is like death and taxes. Consistent. Reliable. Safe. He got off to a woefully slow start this year, causing enough panic among fantasy owners, despite his sterling reputation, to bump him from making the team.
Sidney Crosby – 17 G – 24 P – Minus-5 – 16 PPP – 141 SOG
He was supposed to set the world ablaze with Phil Kessel on his wing. Instead, the two haven’t skated together at even strength for a few months now. Crosby finally has things back on track but there is little chance of him returning value after being the second player off the board in most leagues.
Evgeni Malkin – 23 G – 24 A – Even – 21 PPP – 137 SOG
Malkin’s fine season is lurking in the shadows of some of the league’s biggest stories. On average the ninth player off the board in fantasy leagues, Malkin has returned strong value ranking seventh in league scoring. He has also carried the Penguins at times in a way no other player in the league can. He deserves to make this team but falls just short because of how impeccable the Capitals have been.
The Picks
Brandon Saad – 19 G – 16 A – Plus-1 – 7 PPP – 150 SOG
Like Komarov, this is a case where the Blue Jackets need a representative and Saad is the best option. Unlike Komarov, no one on Saad’s team comes close. Scott Hartnell does have similar scoring totals and depending on your league he might have more fantasy value but we will reward Saad for getting that big contract and living up to it with a breakout season. He appears set to clear his career high of 52 points though he may not make it to 60 now that Ryan Johansen is gone.
Derick Brassard – 17 G – 19 A – Plus-9 – 11 PPP – 106 SOG
Just as silly as the Saad pick. In fact, Mats Zuccarello was all set to be the Ranger option until Brassard had that five-point effort earlier in the week, which pushed him one point ahead of Zuccarello. Brassard is also quietly shooting more than Zuccarello this season. But really, this is about rewarding that outstanding performance!
Kyle Okposo – 12 G – 23 A – Minus-8 – 12 PPP – 113 SOG
Remember the Tavares quiz above? This was one of the correct answers. We would have also accepted Frans Nielsen or Matt Martin. Okposo was drafted in 100% of leagues, around the 100th pick on average but is somehow currently owned in just 83% of leagues despite returning value closer to that of the 73rd best player. I suppose that’s further evidence of how underrated he is.
Alexander Ovechkin – 28 G – 14 A – Plus-20 – 14 PPP – 234 SOG
With so much of the focus on value, Ovechkin was nearly left off this team. Why? Because he was the consensus #1 pick in most leagues and isn’t necessarily living up to that in a world where Patrick Kane has 15 more points than the next closest competitor. Ovechkin got #1 billing because of what he does beyond the scoring and he has lived up to the hype, and then some if you consider his plus/minus. As much as Kane is running away with the scoring title, Ovechkin is running away with the shot title.
Ovechkin also won’t participate in the real All-Star Game because he needs some rest. As a result he will also have to sit out the Capitals’ first game after the break. This is a sensible move but it’s one to note for fantasy owners.
Evgeny Kuznetsov – 15 G – 34 A – Plus-24 – 14 PPP – 104 SOG
Nobody saw this coming. Even the folks who pegged Kuznetsov for a breakout were undershooting it, pegging him for 70 at most. He was going in the 160’s in your average pool and here he is scoring at above a point-per-game pace while leading the league’s best team in scoring despite not even skating on the top power-play unit consistently. He is breaking every notion or convention you ever had and it’s fantastical.
Nicklas Backstrom – 16 G – 29 A – Plus-18 – 19 PPP – 80 SOG
Rumours that off-season surgery would slow Backstrom were greatly exaggerated. He did miss the first couple of games but has been sizzling since joining the team. Finally made an All-Star this season, Backstrom doesn’t get the respect that Patrice Bergeron, Jonathan Toews or Anze Kopitar get as one of the league’s best two-way centermen but perhaps a Stanley Cup would help change things?
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A classic Down Goes Brown piece explains how if the players tried just a little bit it would make the All-Star Game fun again.
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Jonathan Toews is also bowing out of the All-Star Game due to illness so you can count him out of next Tuesday’s contest due to the one-game suspension.
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John Scott shares his take on the whole All-Star situation in a candid piece through the Players Tribune. Definitely worth your time.
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Who would make your Fantasy Hockey All-Star Teams?
Thanks for reading. You can follow me on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw