Yandle to the Panthers, Ben Bishop, Sam Bennett, Johnny Boychuk, and Coaching

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The big news that came down early Thursday morning (for those in the East or Atlantic) was that the Florida Panthers had indeed signed Keith Yandle to a seven-year contract, and that it would carry a cap hit of $6.3-million a season. Yandle will be 30 years old for the 2016-2017 campaign.

At the time Florida acquired his rights, Dobber wrote up a fantasy take on the Panthers adding him. A few days before they landed his rights, I had Yandle on my wish list with Florida as a destination. Most of what can be said is covered in those two articles.

There are a couple things I want to add/supplement to what has already been said, though.

Yandle will help the Florida power play, but I am going to wait before asserting that it’s going to be much of a boon to Aaron Ekblad’s power play production. That’s because there are two ways the Panthers can go about this:

1. Stack the top power play unit with Yandle-Ekblad and then likely Jagr-Barkov-Huberdeau.
2. Continue with what they did most of last year, which is run one defenceman on each power play unit. According to Dobber’s Frozen Pool tools, Brian Campbell was on the ice as the lone defenceman for nearly 34.1-percent of Florida’s PP combinations, while Ekblad was at 25.4-percent. No other single defenceman, or pairing of d-men, was over 10-percent.

Should the power play setup continue from last year, which is mostly four forwards and one defenceman, I would have to think that Yandle gets the top minutes with the top unit, and Ekblad runs the second unit. That means Yandle’s impact on Ekblad’s power play production may be minimal, so Ekblad’s point totals may not change too much next year.

Speaking of Ekblad, I think there is a good chance that he is not playing with Yandle a whole lot next year. Josh Weissbock and the writer known as Money Puck – analytics people – seem to have some influence on the Panthers’ decisions. That means they are fully aware of this:

Yandle scores a lot, but he's not a top-pair D-man. He mostly plays against the depth lines, and in O-zone only. pic.twitter.com/7HAM8xwPSG

— Rob Vollman (@robvollmanNHL) June 23, 2016

The players to the bottom-right get softer competition, and more offensive zone starts. While I’ve talked in the Ramblings before about not going all-in on quality of competition or zone starts, getting such favourable treatment is better than not. I would be willing to wager Ekblad and his defence partner are used primarily in a defensive role at five-on-five, while Yandle and his partner will be used primarily in offensive situations. In a full season, this should help Yandle, and hinder Ekblad (fantasy-wise, of course).

This is all guess-work for now until we actually have an idea of what their units. Given what they did last year, and how Yandle has been used in recent seasons, these all seems like reasonable assumptions. It will be months before any of this is known for certain, though.

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I try not to pay attention to rumours at this time of year – there are so many “reports” that float around that it is difficult to tell fact from fiction. One that has caught my eye is Ben Bishop heading to Calgary. That is one rumour that makes a lot of sense.

Looking at the Lightning cap situation, there are some trouble spots: Ryan Callahan and Matt Carle account for roughly one-sixth of Tampa Bay’s cap over the next two seasons (assuming not much cap increase next year). With albatrosses like that, Nikita Kucherov due a contract this year, and still a faint hope of re-signing Steven Stamkos, money has to be saved somewhere. Shedding nearly a $6-million cap hit in Bishop is a good start. 

With a new coaching staff, maybe things turn around in Calgary. I am not overly optimistic, though. That is why if I owned Bishop in a keeper/dynasty, I would be looking to trade him now. If Bishop were to get traded tonight at the draft, or anytime this summer, with Calgary as a destination, his fantasy value takes a big hit. A team is as much a reason for a goalie’s fantasy value as the goalie himself is; just look how Tuukka Rask’s value has plummeted as the Bruins declined as a franchise, or how Marc-André Fleury is a top-12 goaltender pretty much annually despite not being good enough to keep his job from a rookie.

Bishop has been roughly one of the top-10 goalies in the league for a few years now, and pretty much anywhere he goes – where a goalie is needed – is going to be worse than Tampa. If he can be dealt with the value as a top-3 or top-5 goalie to help fill a need on a fantasy team, I would be making that trade sooner rather than later.

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While on the Calgary topic, Sam Bennett should be garnering a lot of fantasy chatter this summer. I am exercising caution.

At this stage of his career, Bennett is probably someone that needs to be surrounded by talent in order to produce. His most common position last year was on the left wing of Michael Frolik and Mikael Backlund. Both of those players are very solid, and are very good for a second line. With Johnny Gaudreau ahead of him on the left wing depth chart, there’s no chance that the two play together, and players that are not on the top line are not overly attractive fantasy options.

With a full season alongside Backlund, including second unit power play time, I think Bennett can add maybe 10 points to his total last year. The curious thing here is that this visualization from Own The Puck shows just how good Bennett was last year:

Being able to produce primary points at five-on-five at a first line rate, and possession impact as a border line second line rate, as a rookie in the NHL? That is very impressive.

Where the issues arise is ice time, and power play time. Maybe Bennett can add 150 minutes or so at five-on-five, and add 7-8 points there. Being on the second power play unit, though, will seriously cap his power play upside, so adding more than 3-4 points there seems unlikely.

None of this is to disparage Bennett. He looks like he will be an excellent player, likely a consistent first liner, and a very productive fantasy player. The problem, though, is that with Gaudreau and Monahan both left-handed shots, I doubt Bennett plays consistent minutes with them on the power play, and the Gaudreau unit will be used much more than the second unit. Also, while Backlund and Frolik are very solid NHLers, they’re not a truly potent offensive duo seen on some second lines across the league.

Bennett will get a lot of attention in fantasy this summer, as most young players do. For this coming season anyway, I would advise looking elsewhere.

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It’s hard to say that Johnny Boychuk was a fantasy disappointment last year. When it was all said and done, Boychuk tied his previous career-high with nine goals, posted his third-highest shot total of his career, and posted his second-highest point total of his career. And yet, I think fantasy owners (including those using real-time stats), were let down. So what happened?

The first thing to point at is his power play points. After posting a career-high 15 power play points in his first year with the Islanders, Boychuk fell to just five points last season. That 10 point difference is exactly the differential in total points from 2014-2015 (35) and 2015-2016 (25).

Nick Leddy was heavily used on the power play in the 2015-2016 season. In fact, he played over 120 minutes more on the power play than the next-most used Islanders defenceman. That probably threw fantasy owners into a fit, as Leddy and Boychuk were virtually neck-and-neck in power play ice time the year before, separated by about a minute and a half. On ESPN, Boychuk’s average draft position was as the 30^th defenceman, with power play expectations heavily factoring into that. It was a letdown.

What is even more frustrating about the power play ice time is that Boychuk set a career high in points per minute at five-on-five last year (0.99). Had he been given his regular power play time, and maybe an extra shift or two a game, he could have legitimately pushed for 40 points. This is how much coaching decisions can influence a player’s production; Boychuk, simply through his usage as dictated by his coach, may have had his production cut by as much as one-third.

Boychuk being a bust last year in fantasy is a lesson for fantasy owners everywhere: coaching matters a lot in fantasy. How a player is used – just read back the sections on Bennett or Yandle – is crucial to production. Like Yandle, we won’t know how Boychuk will be used until at least the preseason, but keep in mind that if used properly, he can be that 2014-2015 player again. If not, he’ll be that 2015-2016 player again.

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There was a trade yesterday, as the Florida Panthers traded from a position of depth by sending Rocco Grimaldi to the Colorado Avalanche for goaltender Reto Berra. Grimaldi should slot in as the fourth line centre for the Avs, with potential to crack the third line. Berra will obviously be the backup to Roberto Luongo.

There is no fantasy impact here. None. Maybe you stream Berra for a start or two next year. That’s it. Unless you’re playing in a 24-team league, there’s nothing to see here.

*Stats from Hockey Reference, Corsica, and Hockey Analysis. Line combos from Dobber’s Frozen Pool. Cap information from Cap Friendly.