Real or Imagined? Eastern Conference Forwards – Part Three (2016-17)

Eric Daoust

2017-01-03

Fantasy hockey stock reports on forwards from OTT, PHI, PIT, TBL, TOR, and WAS.

With almost half the NHL campaign complete we are starting to see a clearer picture of how things will ultimately play out. Still, there remain plenty of anomalies throughout the league that require further analysis. Specifically, some players are capable of producing more than their current rate which puts them in “buy low” territory while others are likely playing above their means putting them in “sell high” territory.

Many factors help determine a player’s buy/sell status. Various percentages and advanced stats help paint a more accurate picture of the situation. Also, historical production, ice time and opportunity also play a role. After looking at Florida through the New York teams last week, the focus now shifts to Ottawa, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Toronto and Washington.

 

Ottawa

Pos

GP

%PP

TOI

G

A

Pts

PPP

SHT/G

SH%

STATUS

STONE,MARK

R

36

60.4

18:32

11

17

28

10

1.5

20.4

HOLD

TURRIS,KYLE

C

37

51.7

19:19

13

12

25

5

1.9

18.5

HOLD

HOFFMAN,MIKE

C

33

61.4

17:19

10

15

25

11

3.1

9.8

HOLD

DZINGEL,RYAN

C

37

26.5

14:21

8

12

20

2

1.5

14.4

HOLD

BRASSARD,DERICK

C

37

49.7

17:27

8

9

17

3

2.3

9.4

BUY

SMITH,ZACK

C

35

31.1

15:59

8

7

15

0

2.0

11.4

HOLD

RYAN,BOBBY

R

32

44.2

15:19

7

7

14

3

1.6

13.7

HOLD

PAGEAU,JEAN-GABRIEL

C

37

9.5

16:01

4

9

13

0

1.8

6.0

BUY

PYATT,TOM

C

37

2.3

15:39

4

5

9

0

1.3

8.3

WAIVE

KELLY,CHRIS

C

37

0.9

13:03

2

5

7

0

1.0

5.4

WAIVE

NEIL,CHRISTOPHER

R

36

0.7

7:55

1

1

2

0

1.0

2.8

WAIVE

LAZAR,CURTIS

C

17

3.1

9:15

0

0

0

0

1.1

0.0

WAIVE

 

Derick Brassard

This one is pretty obvious. Brassard plays a top-six role for the Sens and has a history scoring in the 60-point range and constantly lines up with some of the team’s best wingers. Yet he currently finds himself below 0.5 points per game. Look for Brassard to begin cashing in on his power play opportunities where he has just three points to date after scoring 18 or more points in each of the last three years.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau

Pageau’s offensive upside is limited in a bottom-six role. However, he still plays 16 minutes per game and has been snakebitten at five-on-five. He is capable of producing a point every two games and is a beast in some multi-category formats even when he is not putting up points consistently. Occasionally he gets promoted to the top-six – keep an eye on the team’s line combinations to look for the best moment to make your move for Pageau.

 

Philadelphia

Pos

GP

%PP

TOI

G

A

Pts

PPP

SHT/G

SH%

STATUS

VORACEK,JAKUB

R

39

66.0

20:00

11

24

35

13

3.3

8.5

HOLD

GIROUX,CLAUDE

R

39

66.0

19:39

10

22

32

16

2.7

9.5

HOLD

SIMMONDS,WAYNE

R

39

65.5

19:16

17

15

32

15

2.7

16.1

HOLD

SCHENN,BRAYDEN

C

36

66.0

17:50

11

13

24

15

2.3

13.3

HOLD

KONECNY,TRAVIS

C

38

29.5

14:50

5

14

19

3

2.2

6.0

HOLD

READ,MATT

R

28

20.4

14:41

6

4

10

2

1.5

14.3

WAIVE

COUSINS,NICK

C

34

20.6

11:05

4

6

10

2

1.3

9.0

WAIVE

VANDEVELDE,CHRIS

C

39

0.8

11:55

5

5

10

0

1.0

12.8

VAIDE

RAFFL,MICHAEL

L

29

2.6

13:47

7

2

9

0

1.3

18.6

WAIVE

COUTURIER,SEAN

C

23

31.8

18:13

6

3

9

1

1.7

15.3

BUY

LYUBIMOV,ROMAN

L

28

0.7

10:20

3

1

4

0

1.0

10.7

WAIVE

WEISE,DALE

R

34

21.7

12:33

2

2

4

1

1.2

4.9

WAIVE

BELLEMARE,PIERRE-EDOUARD

L

39

1.0

14:30

1

3

4

0

1.5

1.7

WAIVE

LEIER,TAYLOR

L

10

0.3

9:04

1

1

2

0

0.7

14.3

WAIVE

GORDON,BOYD

C

11

0.1

8:14

1

0

1

0

0.5

18.2

WAIVE

LAUGHTON,SCOTT

L

2

0.0

10:15

0

0

0

0

2.0

0.0

WAIVE

 

Sean Couturier

While Couturier is still logging heavy minutes since returning recently from a knee injury, he has been lining up on the team’s third line. Playing with lesser linemates limits his upside for now. With that said, last year he showed he can produce in a top-six role and should be able to climb the depth chart soon. When that happens look for an offensive surge from Couturier as the Flyers have several highly-productive wingers available to help him get back on track.

 

Pittsburgh

Pos

GP

%PP

TOI

G

A

Pts

PPP

SHT/G

SH%

STATUS

MALKIN,EVGENI

C

38

69.1

18:31

16

27

43

15

3.2

13.2

HOLD

CROSBY,SIDNEY

C

32

68.6

19:13

26

16

42

13

3.5

23.2

HOLD

KESSEL,PHIL

C

38

68.1

18:04

12

26

38

16

2.7

11.7

HOLD

HORNQVIST,PATRIC

R

32

59.4

16:20

9

13

22

9

3.7

7.6

HOLD

SHEARY,CONOR

L

31

28.0

14:50

9

13

22

2

2.4

12.1

HOLD

BONINO,NICK

C

38

33.7

16:33

6

11

17

4

1.6

9.9

HOLD

KUNITZ,CHRIS

L

32

32.7

15:13

3

13

16

3

1.8

5.2

BUY

RUST,BRYAN

R

35

3.5

13:01

10

6

16

0

1.9

15.0

HOLD

HAGELIN,CARL

L

38

2.6

15:51

5

11

16

0

2.2

6.0

BUY

CULLEN,MATT

C

38

7.3

13:33

7

7

14

1

1.0

18.4

HOLD

WILSON,SCOTT

C

35

12.2

11:05

4

6

10

0

1.8

6.3

WAIVE

FEHR,ERIC

C

33

3.4

11:11

4

2

6

0

1.1

11.0

WAIVE

KUHNHACKL,TOM

R

23

1.0

9:48

2

3

5

📢 advertisement:

0

0.7

12.4

WAIVE

 

Chris Kunitz

Kunitz is no longer the dominant winger he was back in 2013-14 but still can still put up points and has lined up on Evgeny Malkin’s line most of the season. He has just three goals despite averaging close to two shots per game. Look for this to change in the coming weeks. His shooting and hitting are a nice added bonus for multi-category leagues where he could become a solid option on the wing once he starts finding the back of the net.

Carl Hagelin

To date, Hagelin has never had more than 39 points in a season. This was expected to change as he began his first full campaign in Pittsburgh with the opportunity to share the ice with some elite forwards. Thus far he has disappointed with just 16 points despite spending a lot of time with either Malkin or Sidney Crosby. Hagelin is shooting a ton though which gives some hope for the second half.

 

Tampa Bay

Pos

GP

%PP

TOI

G

A

Pts

PPP

SHT/G

SH%

STATUS

KUCHEROV,NIKITA

R

31

54.5

18:27

13

22

35

12

3.1

13.5

SELL

FILPPULA,VALTTERI

C

36

32.2

18:07

6

18

24

5

1.4

11.9

HOLD

DROUIN,JONATHAN

L

30

49.6

17:05

11

11

22

10

2.8

13.1

HOLD

JOHNSON,TYLER

C

38

49.9

18:42

11

10

21

10

1.9

15.2

HOLD

STAMKOS,STEVEN

C

17

50.4

17:53

9

11

20

7

3.4

15.6

HOLD

KILLORN,ALEX

C

38

48.0

17:52

12

7

19

6

2.4

13.2

HOLD

PALAT,ONDREJ

L

33

45.5

17:57

6

11

17

6

1.6

11.4

BUY

POINT,BRAYDEN

C

36

46.8

15:44

3

12

15

7

1.8

4.6

BUY

NAMESTNIKOV,VLADISLAV

C

34

39.4

14:19

4

9

13

5

1.4

8.4

HOLD

BOYLE,BRIAN

C

36

22.1

13:07

10

3

13

4

1.6

17.4

HOLD

PAQUETTE,CEDRIC

C

31

0.8

10:57

3

4

7

0

1.1

8.8

WAIVE

CALLAHAN,RYAN

R

15

4.3

14:28

2

2

4

0

1.3

10.3

WAIVE

BROWN,J.T.

R

32

2.0

10:58

2

2

4

0

1.2

5.2

WAIVE

 

Nikita Kucherov

At this point Kucherov has established himself as one of the league’s best wingers. He is certainly not about to face a huge decline but his current production rate is so rare in today’s NHL you have to try to take advantage of it while it lasts. Perhaps sell him for a similar proven star with less appealing numbers to date while bolstering your roster elsewhere. One sign of an upcoming downtick in scoring is his overall shooting percentage at five-on-five which sits at 12 percent, a very high rate.

Ondrej Palat

The buy-low window for Palat is closing quickly and in fact time might have run out already as he has four points in his last three. He is currently lining up with Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov, the team’s best offensive player, which will help extend his ongoing stretch of strong play. There may still be time to put in an offer as Palat’s 17 points in 33 points are still well short from his numbers of the past three years where he posted a points-per-game rate of 0.65 or better each time.

Brayden Point

Point has taken advantage of the various injuries to Lightning players to establish himself as a regular in the lineup. To date his 15 points in 36 games are not overly impressive but his shooting percentage and overall on-ice shooting percentage at five-on-five are very low. Furthermore, in the last five games his average ice time is over 20 minutes, an elevated number for a forward. During these games he totaled four points. The production might not last the rest of the year but at the very least Point is an excellent short-term addition.

 

Toronto

Pos

GP

%PP

TOI

G

A

Pts

PPP

SHT/G

SH%

STATUS

MATTHEWS,AUSTON

C

36

51.7

17:47

20

12

32

11

3.7

15.0

HOLD

MARNER,MITCHELL

C

36

47.2

17:03

9

18

27

6

2.8

8.9

HOLD

VAN RIEMSDYK,JAMES

L

36

48.0

16:00

13

13

26

5

2.7

13.4

HOLD

NYLANDER,WILLIAM

C

35

50.6

16:18

8

17

25

15

2.6

8.8

HOLD

KADRI,NAZEM

C

36

42.9

16:25

13

8

21

7

3.2

11.3

HOLD

BOZAK,TYLER

C

33

49.2

16:28

7

13

20

3

1.9

11.2

HOLD

HYMAN,ZACH

C

36

2.8

16:48

5

11

16

0

2.3

6.0

BUY

BROWN,CONNOR

R

36

8.5

15:03

7

9

16

2

1.6

12.2

HOLD

KOMAROV,LEO

C

36

40.4

17:04

6

7

13

3

1.3

12.8

WAIVE

MARTIN,MATT

L

36

0.4

8:51

2

2

4

0

0.8

6.9

WAIVE

SOSHNIKOV,NIKITA

R

27

21.3

10:38

1

3

4

1

1.4

2.6

WAIVE

SMITH,BEN

R

24

0.3

11:50

2

1

3

0

1.0

8.3

WAIVE

 

Zach Hyman

Hyman has not been much of a factor offensively but the conditions are there for him to break out at some point. He averages just under 17 minutes per game and lines up almost exclusively next to Auston Matthews. He is also shooting a ton giving him the potential to have a nice run if he can finally get going. The turnaround might already be happening as he has five points, all assists, in his last four.

 

Washington

Pos

GP

%PP

TOI

G

A

Pts

PPP

SHT/G

SH%

STATUS

BACKSTROM,NICKLAS

C

36

61.5

18:34

9

21

30

13

2.1

11.9

HOLD

OVECHKIN,ALEXANDER

L

36

76.3

18:39

17

11

28

9

3.9

12.1

HOLD

JOHANSSON,MARCUS

L

36

53.3

17:29

14

11

25

7

1.7

22.9

SELL

KUZNETSOV,EVGENY

C

36

46.1

17:05

3

16

19

4

1.9

4.4

BUY

OSHIE,T.J.

R

29

58.5

17:42

11

7

18

4

2.2

17.2

HOLD

WILLIAMS,JUSTIN

R

36

45.2

15:41

9

7

16

4

2.2

11.4

HOLD

BURAKOVSKY,ANDRE

L

33

29.1

14:01

4

10

14

1

1.7

7.1

HOLD

BEAGLE,JAY

C

36

1.4

13:09

6

8

14

0

1.3

12.8

WAIVE

WINNIK,DANIEL

C

26

0.9

11:54

5

4

9

0

1.0

19.2

WAIVE

ELLER,LARS

C

35

0.4

14:02

3

3

6

0

1.3

6.6

WAIVE

CONNOLLY,BRETT

R

22

13.7

10:44

4

1

5

1

1.5

12.1

WAIVE

WILSON,TOM

R

36

0.8

12:42

2

2

4

0

0.9

6.2

WAIVE

VRANA,JAKUB

L

12

25.8

11:45

1

2

3

2

1.8

4.6

WAIVE

SANFORD,ZACHARY

L

20

0.0

10:05

0

1

1

0

0.9

0.0

WAIVE

 

Marcus Johansson

Johansson is on pace to cross the 50-point mark for the first time. This is unlikely to continue as he is presently scoring on 23 percent of his shots. This almost never happens over the long haul. Look for Johansson to slow down considerably and finish somewhere in the mid-40s once again. The sell-high window might be closing now as Johansson has just one point in his last four.

Evgeny Kuznetsov

Last year’s 77-point effort was going to be nearly impossible to repeat but few were expecting Kuznetsov’s disastrous first half. There is obviously room for improvement though as he has just three goals on 68 shots and like most of his teammates has struggled on the power play. If things correct themselves as expected down the stretch Kuznetsov would once again become a high-quality center to own. Now is the time to buy as his value is very low at this point and his owner might lose patience.

*

Check out Part One and Part Two.

*

Follow me on Twitter @DH_EricDaoust.

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