Ramblings: Give Karlsson the Hart, but is he the No. 1 fantasy pick? (May 26)

Neil Parker

2017-05-26

Erik Karlsson and Sidney Crosby - USA TODAY Sports Images

 

With less than a minute left in the second period, Erik Karlsson took a hit from Jake Guentzel in his own zone after moving the puck to Marc Methot in the other corner. Karlsson collected his balance on one skate, and then just exploded up the ice. It was almost like he used the boards to slingshot himself toward the neutral zone. So impressive and so opportunistic because he left both Guentzel and Sidney Crosby in his dust, and neither Penguin accounted for Karlsson. Had Methot realized that Karlsson had the entire other half of the ice to himself, it would have been a scoring chance. An aware puck-moving defenseman would have hit him in stride, or at least thrown the puck into open ice where only Karlsson could retrieve it.

How often does a player take a check behind the goal line in their own zone and then put themselves into position to create a scoring chance less than five seconds later?

Additionally, because of that type of vision and skill, Ottawa is able to play a shut-down, sit-back style. Karlsson's 28-30 minutes of ice time are an offensive attack waiting to happen for the Sens, regardless of the zone they're currently in.

Forget about the Norris Trophy, Karlsson deserves the Hart.

 

The next step is whether Karlsson deserves to be the first overall selection in fantasy drafts. Owning a top-tier defenseman is extremely valuable, and Karlsson's easily one of the most reliable scorers in the entire league, regardless of position. He's also just entering his offensive prime at 26. Brent Burns has been the better fantasy option the past two years, but it doesn't mean he's a lock to continue being the best virtual defenseman.

 

Last Night, Karlsson logged 39:33 and collected an assist on both Ottawa goals. He's the most valuable player to his team in the league. Connor McDavid has a strong case, but it has to be Karlsson. If we're drafting teams today for the 2017-18 Stanley Cup and Karlsson isn't the first selection you're going to lose to the team that took him second overall.

 

Big game from Chris Kunitz, and he looked more composed with the puck last night. He held onto it longer and made the most of his time with Sidney Crosby. Speaking of MVP candidates, No. 87 looked the part early but just struggled to generate many chances after his initial flurry in the first period. Everyone is playing through injuries right now, but it doesn't appear Crosby has the zip on every shift.

However, there just weren't many chances to be had. Niether team registered a high-danger scoring chance at five-on-five, and there were just three scoring chances for the Senators and two for Pittsburgh.

The Game 7 vibes were going, and business picked up in a hurry with the two quick goals in the second period, but for long stretches both teams played not to lose — especially the Senators. The five-on-five shot count was 41-27 Pens, and Pittsburgh attempted 70 shots to Ottawa's 56.

 

We're down to two.

 

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Empty fantasy advice and clichés are the worst. Everywhere you look, the significance of power-play time is hammered home. We know why, but it's often hard to showcase the importance.

When looking at last season's five-on-five leaders in primary assists per 60 minutes, something jumped out. Tyler Bozak, Valtteri Filppula and Travis Zajac all topped Nicklas Backstrom's 0.87 first assists per 60 minutes at five-on-five last year. Backstrom paced NHL skaters with at least 200 power-play minutes in points per 60 minutes (8.48) and posted a 2.9 first assist per 60 mark.

Of course, Washington also posted a 3rd-best 23.1 power-play percentage and second-ranked 8.1 goals per 60 minutes with the man advantage, so it’s a cushy fantasy unit.

Still, Claude Giroux trailed only Alex Ovechkin in power-play ice time this season, and Giroux posted 6.07 points per 60 minutes with the man advantage. Among the 136 forwards that played 1,000 minutes at five-on-five this season, only Dwight King posted a lower points per 60 minutes mark than Giroux's 0.94.

If Backstrom and Grioux were ever cut from their fantasy-friendly gigs on their respective No. 1 power-play units, it would be a huge blow to their virtual value. Continue to chase those power-play minutes.

 

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This was an interesting read about the "Window to Win" in the NHL. It's quick and informative. Dig in.

 

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Andreas Athanasiou is an exciting player that consistently flashes game-breaking skill and offensive upside. He posted a rock-solid 1.95 points per 60 minutes, including a 1.27 goals per 60 last year and totalled 18 goals and 29 points through 64 games. The 22-year-old forward appears in line to be a consistent contributor that continues to improve going forward.

His career 15.6 shooting percentage is high, and while it wouldn't be surprising if that proved to be unsustainable going forward, an increased role with more ice time should allow him to register more shots and mitigate the inevitable lack of efficiency. Additionally, players with Athanasiou's offensive gifts can often maintain a higher shooting percentage than less skilled players.

However, one long-term concern is the crowded Detroit lineup, and incoming talents. Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha, Tomas Tatar and Gustav Nyquist are mainstays, and Tyler Bertuzzi, Evgeny Svechnikov and Martin Frk are pushing for more work. Henrik Zetterberg, Justin Abdelkader, Darren Helm and Frans Nielsen are all inked long term, too.

Still, most concerning, it was shocking to see that Athanasiou was on the ice for just 6.5 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five through his final 22 games of the season. During that 22-game stretch, he posted four goals, six helpers (three power-play assists) and registered a 10.8 shooting percentage. Among Red Wings with at least 200 minutes at five-on-five last year, Athanasiou was on the ice for the sixth-fewest high-danger chances per 60 minutes (8.4).

With competition for ice time, a likely declining shooting percentage and an inability to help create consistent high-end scoring opportunities, the arrow might not be pointing up as straight or as high after a deeper dive.

 

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Daniel Sprong has been a healthy scratch since joining the Penguins, which is to be expected, but he's a grab in keeper/dynasty settings. He's 20 and coming off a dominant final season in the QMJHL with 32 goals and 27 helpers over just 31 games. Sprong followed it up with nine goals and 20 points over 12 postseason games.

His offensive upside is sky high, and he could quickly slide into a top-six role alongside Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin or Phil Kessel, and Sprong's vision and puck skills will make a seamless transition to the highest level.

Pittsburgh's top-six group looks crowded now, but none of Bryan Rust, Scott Wilson or Conor Sheary bring what Sprong does to the table. Jake Guentzel might not, either. Best off all, Sprong is currently out of the spotlight, so his value might be at an all-time low.

He's also a ripe late-round flier in seasonal settings at this stage. Read more about Sprong here.

 

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Enjoy the weekend, Dobberheads.

13 Comments

  1. marsid6687 2017-05-26 at 06:41

    So if the Pens win the Cup would it be a first to win 2 Stanley Cups as a rookie (Murray)?

    • Neil Parker 2017-05-26 at 12:35

      It would almost have to be. I was thinking Ken Dryden, but Boston won the Cup in 1972.

  2. Mark Legolas Stone 2017-05-26 at 07:48

    Spring is very one dimensional and has serious red flags over his character. Wouldn’t suggest adding him myself

    • Striker 2017-05-26 at 08:17

      Most players coming out of Major Jr are especially the QMJHL. They learn, or at least most do. This is primarily a fantasy hockey site & few fanatasy leagues address defensive play in any way. We care they can score & put up points & if they get SH or PP time even better.

      • Mark Legolas Stone 2017-05-26 at 08:19

        Being one dimensional isn’t a concern if he translates, but he’s not very receptive to coaching and doesn’t utilize his teammates very well. His value has dropped since being drafted in terms of NHL probability. He was recently around 90-100 in buttons prospect rankings

        • Neil Parker 2017-05-26 at 12:35

          Button’s rankings aren’t fantasy hockey rankings. And being ranked that low is exactly why I’d be buying now. Let’s say Sprong skates with Crosby in one practice or game during the preseason, his fantasy value skyrockets. Maybe at that point you can flip him for an established player. That’s why right now is the type of buy-now, buy-low spot I’m looking at.

        • Striker 2017-05-26 at 14:42

          I don’t do Button he’s not that bright & he irritates me.

          The best mainstream publication for prospects is The Hockey News Future Watch. Great track record. He went from 56th in last seasons publication to 62nd this season. He should have dropped as all the draft picks from the 2016 draft get added, far more than those that fall out having graduated to full time NHL players.

          At 19 years old I have no doubts having signed his ELC & coming into some significant monies it’s gone to his head some what most adjust with time & I have no doubts Sprong will as well. He is going to be given every opportunity to be an NHL scorer due to his pedigree. Draft position & individual skill set.

          Might that be a process that takes 3 to 4 years or in or around 200 NHL regular season games like the vast majority of prospects yes but Pittsburgh has & needs the skill set Sprong has, that being a finisher that can skate with Crosby of Malkin in very short order.

          • Stu Campaigne 2017-05-26 at 15:13

            You should hear what Button says about you!

          • Striker 2017-05-26 at 15:32

            I have live.

          • Neil Parker 2017-05-26 at 17:29

            THIS: Pittsburgh has & needs the skill set Sprong has, that being a finisher that can skate with Crosby of Malkin in very short order.

            That’s all that matters.

        • Sev 2017-05-26 at 17:24

          “Not very receptive to coaching” is false. And “doesn’t utilize his teammates very well” is also false. Sprong is a prospect and therefore no guarantee, but those two particular criticisms lack any basis in fact.

          • Steve 2017-05-26 at 17:47

            That’s not true. He’s had that problem for a while now. Big reason he wasn’t a first round pick. This is actually fact and the poster above is correct

          • Sev 2017-05-26 at 17:53

            Yes, that was (past tense) the knock on Sprong and that is why he fell out of the 1st Rd. But since then, he’s been terrific. If anyone has a link to an article by something w/ actual knowledge to the contrary, I’d like to see it. Otherwise, I agree w/ Neil Parker here: Buy Low on Sprong, while/if you still can.

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