Game 1 analysis, Vegas mock draft

So, wasn’t that a bizarre Game 1?

I mean, when does a team ever win when taking just 12 shots on goal? It was weird seeing a graphic on the top-right corner of the CBC broadcast screen continually showing the last shot that the Penguins took. It’s easy to criticize the Pens and say they got lucky winning this game. But Nashville’s defense… you can see why Evgeni Malkin said they have four Erik Karlssons. Both in terms of blocked shots (nine among Nashville blueliners) and points (Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi, and P.K. Subban rank second, third, and fifth respectively in playoff scoring among defensemen).

Usually that shot total would be the story of the night. Instead it was Subban’s goal that was reversed by an offside challenge. This call turned out to be hugely unpopular, not necessarily because the goal itself was reversed but because it took about six minutes to decide when video evidence appeared inconclusive to reverse the call. Not a good look for the NHL on NBC when it’s trying to market itself as a more exciting and less predictable option than the NBA playoffs, Charles Barkley notwithstanding.

But I’m going to go Contrarian here again (since Demetri is no longer writing here). I would take careful, critical analysis of a goal over the officials accidentally making what is clearly a wrong call. Video evidence shows that the referees get it right (or at least close to right) most of the time. I don’t mind taking a moment to get it right, though. It would sure beat a team losing a game over a bad call. After all, remember that video replay is also used in football (although I still don’t know what a catch is) and baseball (it sure doesn’t help speed up a game that’s already too slow for many kids).

Yes, let’s find a way to refine video review. Maybe restrict it to two or three minutes, and if you can’t decide by then, the call stands? But let’s also not forget why it is there in the first place.

We could also debate offside here. A friend of mine suggested changing the rule back to the puck going over the line first with no toe dragging. There’s also the idea of making more significant changes to the offside rule or even eliminating it. That’s a whole other discussion that I won’t expand on here.

Since this is a fantasy hockey website, what are the fantasy implications to the offside challenge? It’s one more factor that is bringing goal totals down, although likely by a nominal amount (I couldn’t find any numbers on the number of goals reversed by offside challenges). But having more reasons to challenge calls on the ice has the potential to bring goal totals down even more. That can’t be good for building interest in the game.

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Some more details were released on Tuesday regarding the Vegas roster situation:

Vegas free-agent window will be from10 am ET on Sunday June 18 to 10 am ET on Wednesday June 21; same 72-hr period as expansion draft window

— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) May 30, 2017

Also, NHL will release all 30 teams' protected lists at 10 am ET on Sunday, June 18

— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) May 30, 2017

Vegas can sign any UFA in the NHL during this period as well as unprotected RFAs. Would count as Vegas' expansion draft pick from that team

— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) May 30, 2017

So with the season almost over, I’m starting to get excited about this expansion draft now. I mean, we’re talking about an event that will have far-reaching consequences – all 30 existing teams will be affected. I don’t know what we have planned at Dobber Hockey to cover the fantasy implications of an entire team’s roster being filled, but I imagine we’ll have something. I’m pretty sure this site wasn’t around when the last expansion teams (Minnesota and Columbus) joined the NHL, so this will be a first.

So out of interest, I decided to check out Cap Friendly’s Expansion Draft tool. Here you can either decide which players from each team to protect or use the quick protect, which is much faster and is based on popularity. Once you quick protect, you can again view each roster to review and make additional changes. For example, the quick protect exposed Jakob Silfverberg, but if I’m to believe Dobber, Silfverberg will be protected. So I’ll step out on a limb and assume that Kevin Bieksa (who has a no-movement clause) is bought out, or that Bieksa somehow agrees to waive that no-move clause.

📢 advertisement:

Jakob Silfverberg has 36 points in his last 36 playoff games.

Anyone who thinks he'll be exposed for expansion is out of their mind

— Dobber (@DobberHockey) May 15, 2017

I quickly glanced at all the other teams, so for the most part I just assumed that the masses knew what they were doing and only made a few changes. My most noticeable switch after the Anaheim one was Tampa Bay protecting Vladislav Namestnikov instead of Alex Killorn, as I think the Lightning wouldn’t mind exposing that contract in order to make room for pending UFAs. I also waived Marc-Andre Fleury’s no-movement clause, just because his name has been discussed so often.

It was interesting to see what a team like Nashville will probably do, which is to protect only four forwards so that they can keep their big four blueliners (Subban, Josi, Ellis, Mattias Ekholm) intact. As a result, one of Vegas’ top players could very well be picked from Nashville’s top secondary scoring options. If a team wants to keep more than three defensemen, they would need to expose two additional forwards.

Okay, so now I’m ready to go, so I click on the Draft Team tab and pick my team. This exercise wasn’t easy, because I was still under the cap floor of $43.8 million after I picked one from every team and I still needed one more 2017-18 contract. You can’t just draft what you think is the top young player from each team; you have to consider larger contracts that are less desirable as well.

You can view my team complete with salary info here.

I figure that Vegas will be strongest in net with the surplus of strong 1A and backup goalies out there. Looking back, I probably didn’t need to draft three NHL-caliber goalies, but Vegas could be in a position of strength to trade one of them for some help elsewhere.

The defense is basically a mix of youth and experience. The Isles may keep Ryan Pulock, but it may also come at the expense of one forward, with possibly Brock Nelson as one of them. If Pulock is grabbed by the Knights he’ll be in a very good spot as a potential power-play QB that can grow with the team.

Mike Cammalleri, Alex Killorn, and Jason Zucker are all capable of battling for spots on the top line, along with Vadim Shipachyov. All three expansion draft forwards are listed at multiple positions. Calle Jarnkrok would be the forward that Nashville would lose, and he could slot in as the second-line center. I’ll also assume that the Golden Knights will roll the dice on Mikkel Boedker after a down season in San Jose. Obviously this team will struggle to score in its first season. Right now I’d project its top scorer to finish with around 50 points.

This team that I have picked isn't perfect by any means. And I’m expecting to receive the “you should have drafted Player X” or "there's no way in the world Player Y will get picked" in the comments. But remember, it’s all about the player’s current team deciding whether or not to keep that player to begin with. We don’t know what’s going through the heads of the 30 current team GMs, nor do we know which George McPhee and his team will covet. That’s part of the fun.

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One news item to store in the memory bank for next season’s drafts: Derick Brassard may miss the start of the season after undergoing surgery on a torn labrum (NHL.com). Maybe this means Jean-Gabriel Pageau’s strong play during the playoffs could lead to an increased role to start the 2017-18 season.

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For more fantasy hockey information, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

4 Comments

Striker 2017-05-31 at 09:07Log in to Reply

Vegas has till the day before the season starts to reach their; lower in year 1 than all other teams, cap floor just like all 30 other NHL teams. Vegas will be very active in the trade market, like the Bernier trade with Anh following Toronto paying his 2 million dollar bonus, that was really part of the deal for Toronto to secure Andersen but Anaheim didn’t want to take him till Toronto paid that 2 mil, Anh took the full cap hit though, Vegas will be moving players in & out & some of the deals they strike not to select specific players from teams may not be announced until following the selections being made public. They don’t need to reach their cap floor in the expansion draft but by mid Oct. Come opening day the will be well above their cap floor.

Capfriendly is awesome but the auto pick tool for expansion meaningless fodder. A dynamic you can’t account for specifically is who trades with who but some potential trades are obvious. I see a minimum of 5 D moved pre expansion. To where who knows as there are at least 9 teams that will bid & could be as many as 12. I make & write about my predictions based on what we know today trying to assume what they might do but still put my protectors & exposed players in based on today’s roster. As the trades come down the pike pre expansion if any do I adjust accordingly.

I hate Scott Cullen’s Off season game plans as well for the same reasons he’s adding players as if those trades have happened, pure speculation. Sure expunge on what a team might need to do but to show next years roster assumptions with numerous trades for other players is an effort in futility. 99% of those specific trades will never transpire.

I don’t see Jarnkrok exposed, his 6 year deal at 2 mil per gives him solid long term value, he will be Nashville’s 4th forward protected & when Fisher stops contributing in an offensive role some of that icetime will go to Jarnkrok. He should be a 4o to 45 point 3rd line checking C for the next decade & the next 5 years min in Nashville for peanuts. I assume based on what we know today Wilson will be lost if not traded. Nashville should ship him out pre expansion, he would be a nice addition for many teams especially Carolina, Boston, etc. Any team in need of a solid character LW that can play C if needed with a decent contract.

All you need to do is take the time to look at all 30 teams & start to do some deductive reasoning. I have spent serious man hours doing just that. Going to be very interested to see how well I do in my assumptions. I grade everything down to a %, again the hard part of expansion is who gets traded where, not necessarily who will be traded & what some clubs might pay Vegas to avoid a specific player, add in the human element & anything can happen, fear & greed are nasty motivators & decisions made in such circumstances generally bad. Determining what might happen today before those trades happen is fairly easy for 80% of teams it’s the 20% that swing to either side of the scale which are unpredictable.

Carolina only has 1 protector at D; Faulk, & needs at least 1 forward, possibly 2 depending upon if you perceive McGinn as a protector. Minnesota is at the other end of the scale. They will move a Dman, possible 2 although I assume they will pay Vegas to avoid selecting the 2nd Dman & they will take back expansion draft exempt assets to do so. Minny will move at least 1 Dman & it’s going to be 1 of Arz, Bos, Buf, Car, Col, Dal, Det, NJ or TB that takes 1 of them. Which 1 who knows. These 2 teams set the scale of teams in the best position for expansion Carolina to the worst Minnesota.
Striker 2017-05-31 at 09:20Log in to Reply

At best 6 of those 30 selections may be correct but I don’t even agree with your use of the 4 wildcards selections. We know Vegas has to pick 14F, 9D & 3G & 4 wildcards. They may well select 4 goalies, 2 of which will be waiver exempt, very young goalies with very bright futures as they are the best potential asset from that team & then simply flip 1 to a team with an aging veteran say like Ottawa. I don’t see MAF; although not impossible, nor Raanta in Vegas. Better goalies available than Raanta & Vegas will select Fast or Lindberg based on what we know today from the NYR.

Again the dynamic that can’t be accounted for is what teams trade what players before expansion & to where. & what are teams prepared to pay Vegas to avoid selecting a specific player. It’s fun to discuss all the various scenario’s but for the time being make assumptions based on what we know until clarity can be provided.

I posted my Anh, Arz & Bos assumptions in these rumor threads over several days. I wrote Buf but haven’t got it posted to the forum as Dobber asked as yet, busy weekend of baseball. That gives you an example of what I mean by extrapolate. Discuss the scenario’s in play what you think will happen & show several options if necessary of who may be lost in any of the scenario’s facing every team. Why try to boil it down to 1 player unless able. That’s for when we have the protected lists for all 30 teams. At least that’s how I look at it.
mick 2017-05-31 at 10:37Log in to Reply

Thanks for the info. With so many possibilities its difficult, but that’s where the fun comes in. There are bound to be few trades and deals so all a person can do is go on the data you have, so good work.
SBN 2017-05-31 at 17:06Log in to Reply

Hopefully everybody caught the insanity that was Cale Makers nhl.com interview where he politely agreed he plays like Erik Karlsson (who he had’nt really seen play before until somebody mentioned they were alike…). All junior players should perhaps have a little more humility (I think if I was a GM and drafting anyways…) and maybe they need some better interview coaching before the draft hype begins.

UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 21 - 19:11	WSH	vs	COL
Nov 21 - 19:11	CBJ	vs	T.B
Nov 21 - 19:11	OTT	vs	VGK
Nov 21 - 19:11	DET	vs	NYI
Nov 21 - 19:11	BOS	vs	UTA
Nov 21 - 19:11	N.J	vs	CAR
Nov 21 - 20:11	STL	vs	S.J
Nov 21 - 20:11	CHI	vs	FLA
Nov 21 - 21:11	CGY	vs	NYR
Nov 21 - 21:11	EDM	vs	MIN