It was a very tight-checking start to Game 6 of the Cup Final. Both teams were covering themselves defensively very well, and neither was really able to get dangerous looks for most of the first period. The line of Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, and Conor Sheary occasionally got into prime scoring positions but it always seemed the puck was bouncing or taking a deflection.

Controversy came early in the second period, as a shot from Filip Forsberg wasn’t squeezed by Matt Murray, the puck was clearly laying in the crease, and subsequently poked home by Nashville for the first goal. However, the referee – with Murray between himself and the puck – assumed Pittsburgh goaltender squeezed the initial shot and blew the whistle early. It was an obviously blown call that cost the Predators the first goal of the game, but there was nothing to be done about it. This was the play in question:

can't blame Preds for being mad about this premature whistle pic.twitter.com/uCgIrB8xU6

— steph (@myregularface) June 12, 2017

It was unfortunate, but those are the breaks sometimes. Twitter had a little fun with it:

Good job by Rinne smothering this puck to stop play pic.twitter.com/JQCJPYRCnv

— Filipovic Forsberg (@DimFilipovic) June 12, 2017

It would take more than 58 minutes for the game to get its first goal, and it was Patric Hornqvist banking a puck off of Rinne from behind the goal, and into the net. That would stand as the game-winning, and Cup-winning, goal for Nashville. 

The Conn Smythe went to Crosby. 

This was an incredible run from Pittsburgh. Admittedly, once Kris Letang went down with an injury, I didn't expect the Penguins to stand much of a chance. They got oustanding goaltending from Marc-André Fleury until Murray returned from injury, Jake Guentzel had a spectacular Cup run, and the defence corps held together just enough to get them through. 

****

Throughout the summer, I am going team-by-team to review some of the fantasy performance from each of the 30 teams. The next team up in alphabetical order is Detroit.

The Red Wings are obviously a team in transition. After missing the playoffs for the first time since 1990, this franchise is moving beyond the glory days of yesteryear. There are some very nice young players that should be on the NHL roster this coming season, but the defence corps needs a complete overhaul. That probably won’t happen this offseason, but it needs to happen soon.

Henrik Zetterberg

From a straight production standpoint, it was a great year for Zetterberg, posting 68 points, finishing top-25 in this regard. It was also, however, his fifth straight year of failing to reach 20 goals (four consecutive 82-game seasons). He is averaging just under three shots on goal in those five seasons, so it’s not like he’s failing to shoot, but his shooting percentage has usually been in the single digits.

The 36-year-old Swede managed a points-per-60-minutes rate (2.31) that put him slightly ahead of some elite company like Ryan Getzlaf (2.30) and Patrick Kane (2.28). Invariably, the next question is how he got there:

• Zetterberg’s three-year Individual Points Percentage (IPP, or the rate he garners a point when a goal is scored with him the ice) from 2013-2016 was 64.5 percent; that rose to 77.8 percent in 2016-17.
• Detroit shot 7.96 percent at five-on-five from 2013-16 and scored 2.40 goals per 60 minutes from 2013-16 with Zetterberg on the ice; those numbers were 10.24 percent and 2.97 goals per 60 in 2016-17.
• From 2013-16, the captain managed 0.65 first assists per 60 minutes, and that jumped to 1.18 in 2016-17.

All told, aside from personal shooting percentage, this was a season were everything went right offensively for the future Hall of Famer at five-on-five. One explanation is that the departure of Pavel Datsyuk made him a focal point of the offence. I would argue such a huge deviation from established norms this late in his career is not something that’s repeatable.

The impending drop in five-on-five production could be mitigated through an increase in power-play production given how bad Detroit’s PP was this past campaign. Even with an additional 10 power-play points – which would be a massive increase – it’s hard not to envision Zetterberg dropping to, or below, the 60-point mark in 2017-18.

Tomas Tatar

For the third straight year, Tatar posted at least 20 goals and 20 assists, being one of just 26 forwards in the NHL to have done so. That’s impressive in itself, especially with just eight power-play points to help his raw production totals. One concerning trend continued, however, in that this was the third consecutive season that Tatar’s shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five declined, from a career-best 8.39 in 2013-14 to a career-worst 6.65 this past year. Despite having the most ice time per game of his career, he posted a four-year low in shots per game.

The 2016-17 campaign also saw Tatar set a career-high in on-ice shooting percentage at five-on-five. That’s not a huge surprise given that he played the vast majority of his minutes with Zetterberg. What it does indicate is, like Zetterberg, that an offensive downturn is in the cards.

Shooting less and less every year is a problem for Tatar and fantasy owners. There’s nothing necessarily wrong with a shooting rate; Alex Tanguay rarely shot the puck and managed two 20-goal seasons after the age of 30. Tatar is 26 years old until December, and should hopefully see more ice time. The problem is that when the shooting percentage takes a downturn, the lack of volume can see goal rates completely tank. Recent examples of this include teammate Gustav Nyquist in 2016-17, and Jakub Voracek in 2015-16 (there are many others). With a high volume, even a poor percentage season can still be mitigated (Patrice Bergeron in 2016-17 is an example). With a low volume, a poor percentage season decimates all fantasy value, especially for a guy that isn’t a true playmaker like Tatar.

His fantasy value won’t command a high draft cost, so there’s no problem drafting the Czech winger in fantasy leagues, banking on that shot rate turning around. Do not be surprised however, if he doesn’t improve his production in any meaningful way, however.

Anthony Mantha

It was a frustrating year to have Mantha on fantasy rosters. He was second among Red Wings forwards in points per 60 minutes at five-on-five (2.18, top-30 in the NHL among regular forwards), second among Red Wings forwards in shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five, and yet was healthy scratched, demoted, and benched all with regularity. Serenity now, insanity later.

I get it. The whole “young players have to earn it/develop consistency/get their coach’s trust” trope is very real across the league, and alive and well in Motown, obviously. There is no justification, however, for Mantha being eighth among Red Wings forwards in power-play ice time per game, given their power play was among the worst in the league.

Turning 23 years old before the season starts, the reigns should be loosened for the winger in 2017-18. He is a big player who can dominate shifts physically while generating a lot of offence, and that is a rare combination. His story, however, does serve an important purpose fantasy-wise: it doesn’t necessarily matter how we, as fantasy owners view a player. All that matters is how his coach views him. There are countless stories of players not being used to their full potential by their coaches (Morgan Rielly and Brandon Saad come to mind). Mantha could keep improving his offensive game, but if he gets 15 minutes a contest, is sometimes demoted to the third or fourth line, and is rarely given significant power-play opportunity, he cannot reach anywhere close to his fantasy potential. There is every reason to believe in Mantha’s ability, but Mantha’s usage will ultimately dictate his fantasy value.

Gustav Nyquist

Setting a four-year low in goals might seem like it would kill a player’s fantasy value, but Nyquist managed 48 points total, five more than he posted in 2015-16. In fact:

Gustav Nyquist had more 5v5 points in 2016-17 (37) than John Tavares, Joe Pavelski, Jeff Carter, or Jamie Benn https://t.co/bGAfkzYbbd

— Michael Clifford (@SlimCliffy) June 10, 2017

Hey, that’s good!

Aside from a big downturn in shooting percentage – we’ll get to that – Nyquist’s production problem was on the power play, as it was for most every Detroit player; he averaged one power-play goal every 38 games in 2016-17, after averaging one every 8.2 games from 2013-16.

Unlike Tatar, Nyquist’s shot rates would seemed pretty normal, managing 7.31 per 60 minutes. From 2013-16, he managed 7.92, and increased that number from 2015-16 by itself. That is a good sign.

The downturn in shooting percentage was largely due to his five-on-four shooting, not five-on-five. In over 600 minutes of five-on-four play from 2013-2016, Nyquist shot 25 percent. In over 203 minutes in 2016-17, that plummeted to 3.57 percent. Was there a significant difference in his shooting areas? From HockeyViz:

Could shifting five right to the right on the power play really tank a shooting percentage that much? Doubtful. There should be a significant rebound in the upcoming campaign.

There really isn’t much of a difference in what to expect from Nyquist moving forward than Zetterberg (though the level of expectation will vary). His on-ice shooting percentage and goal rates were higher than normal, so those areas will decline. An uptick in power-play production could mitigate the incoming drop in five-on-five points. Whether the Detroit power play turns its fortunes around next year, however, is another question entirely.