Ramblings: Team Win Totals, Kings Dmen, John Gibson, Jonathan Quick and more (Aug. 4)

Neil Parker

2017-08-04

John Gibson - USA TODAY Sports Images

 

For those who prefer the written word, here are a few more notes from the Win Totals video segment I shot Tuesday.

 

Capitals 51.5 wins and repeating as Presidents Trophy winners

The Presidents Trophy was introduced for the 1985-86 campaign, and no team has ever claimed the trophy three years in a row. It's also not out of the question to suggest that there has been a changing of the guard with the Eastern Conference — and particularly the Metropolitan Division — a more daunting test than the Western Conference.

Washington lost a number of key pieces, and there is a chance the Capitals are battling for a playoff spot in April and not the best record in the league, so I'm obviously skepitcal.

Reaching 51 wins is definitely a fair number. At this point, it wouldn't be a strong lean either way because the Capitals have some talented youngsters ready to step into larger roles. To wrap it up, no Presidents Trophy for the Caps, but 51 wins isn't out of the question.

 

Canadiens 44.5 wins

Some say a puck-moving defenseman was their biggest need, I say they needed more offensive skill on the wings, and Montreal still doesn't have a legitimate No. 1 center.

So there are a number of shortcomings.

After digging into Mark Streit's addition, that definitely was a solid grab, but he couldn't play regularly with the Penguins during the playoffs and turns 40 years old in December.

This is another situation where a lot needs to go right for Montreal to win 45 games. Carey Price can't have any letdown stretches, and both Jonathan Drouin and Alex Galchenyuk need to establish themselves as a high-end scorers.

With the Atlantic Division likely more competitive than ever, Montreal might not even make the playoffs, let alone win 45 games.

 

Vegas 26.5 wins

Historically, expansion teams have been doormats, and Anaheim and Columbus are the only two teams of the five most recent expansion clubs to win at least 27 games.

The Golden Knights probably have more talent than any of those five debut teams, though, and there is a Vegas distraction narrative that could potentially work in their favor. Additionally, Marc-Andre Fleury is still capable of stealing games and most certainly holding his team in games.

It's worth noting that Colorado only won 22 games last season, so unless Vegas is going to develop into a prolific shootout or overtime team, they will probably struggle to top 26 wins.

 

Dallas 43.5 wins

This is an example where league-average goaltending would have gone a long way last season, and the Stars also dealt with injury after injury in 2016-17. Their blue line probably still isn't up to snuff, but Dallas is an offensive juggernaut. Ben Bishop is also a significant upgrade in goal.

The Stars have still positioned themselves to make their best run at the Stanley Cup in 2018-19, though. A number of high-priced tickets will be coming off the books following this season, so that's something to tuck away in your tickle trunk.

The main concern about Dallas failing to post 44 wins is that historically, there have been some adjustment periods for teams that have undergone significant offseason personnel changes. Otherwise, though, this team should cruise to 44 wins.

 

Hurricanes 41.5 wins

The Carolina Hurricanes have already received and will continue to receive a lot of buzz leading into the season. The jury is still out on whether Scott Darling can perform as a No. 1, but that team only needs league-average goaltending to take a sizeable step forward.

Carolina posted the fifth-best Corsi For percentage and generated the fourth-most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes last season, so everything is in place. There is an admirable collection of young defensemen and forwards, and the Hurricanes also beefed up their depth chart during the offseason.

You'll notice that with a 41.5 win total, improvement is already a baked in expectation, though.

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Here are a handful more deep dives.

 

Jonathan Quick

Quick injured his groin Opening Night and didn't return until Feb. 25. The veteran was limited to just 17 games, but his .917 save percentage and 2.26 GAA were right in line with his .917 and 2.18 marks over the previous three campaigns. Additionally, Quick's .927 save percentage at five-on-five last year is further assurance that 31-year-old netminder can turn in another solid fantasy showing in 2017-18. The Kings will lean on their No. 1 goalie, and Quick projects to approach 65 starts, so there is a lot of value in his volume and reliability. It's worth noting that the Kings have a number of go-to skaters in decline and weak lineup depth in front of Quick. Los Angeles still plays a sound possession game, though, which should mitigate the risk of an underwhelming supporting cast.

 

Jake Muzzin

After consecutive 40-point campaigns and a career year in 2015-16, Muzzin underwhelmed last year with just 28 points. His minus-21 rating was a particular eyesore, and he also posted just 2.24 shots per game, which was his lowest mark since 2012-13. However, Muzzin still posted an elite 55.5 Corsi For percentage, and despite the dip in shot volume, he finished with 184 shots, 46 PIM, 162 hits and 122 blocked shots. Those peripheral numbers are solid, and it will only take a modest offensive rebound and a bounce back in the plus-minus column to skyrocket Muzzin back up the defensemen ranks.

 

Alec Martinez

Martinez posted a career-high 39 points while logging the most minutes per game of his career (21:38), which also included 2:10 of power-play time. Like most Kings, he's a sound possession player (54.3 Corsi For percentage last year) and also provides a cross-category profile in the peripheral categories with an average of 134 shots, 125 blocked shots and 150 hits over the past two seasons. Martinez enters his age-30 season and projects to have another solid fantasy campaign in 2017-18. However, it's worth noting that his upside is capped because he's clearly behind both Drew Doughty and Jake Muzzin on the depth chart.

 

Drew Doughty

After claiming his first Norris Trophy in 2015-16, Doughty's numbers dipped last season. He still notched 44 points and 181 shots while logging a hefty 27:09 of ice time (3:17 with the man advantage) per game. He also posted a team-high plus-8 rating while continuing to an excellent possession game (55.2 Corsi For percentage). Still just 27 years old, Doughty is in the heart of his prime and projects to remain the go-to defenseman in all situations for the Kings. He offers a high and reliable fantasy floor and also has potential to rebound in the points column. There are a few defensemen with more upside, but very few are as reliable as Doughty.

 

John Gibson

Anaheim handed the starting reigns to Gibson last season, and he didn't disappoint when healthy. While he was limited to just 49 starts, he posted a sterling .924 save percentage and 2.22 GAA, which included a fifth-ranked .935 save percentage at five-on-five among all goalies with at least 35 games played. The Ducks have an excellent defense corps in front of Gibson, and the addition of Ryan Miller shouldn't be viewed as a negative. Gibson is the better netminder and the clear No. 1. Staying healthy is the only hurdle left for Gibson to clear to claim a spot among the high-end fantasy goalies.

 

Ryan Kesler

At this point of his career, there aren't a lot of unknowns with Kesler. He has posted four consecutive 20-goal campaigns and has topped the 50-point plateau in consecutive years. Kesler moves the needle in the PIM, shots and hits columns, and he is also willing to block shots. His fantasy ceiling is extremely capped because of his shut-down role, but he also logged 2:51 of power-play time per game last year and notched 20 points — eight goals — with the man advantage. Additionally, he logged a hefty 21:18 of ice time per night, which helps mitigate starting 66.6 percent of his five-on-five shifts in the defensive zone. Kesler's reliability and cross-category production shouldn't be undervalued on draft day. 

 

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Thanks for checking in, Dobberheads.

2 Comments

  1. T3rrybowman 2017-08-04 at 04:22

    I get that Kesler is a cross-category monster in leagues like mine. How does Kesler’s injury affect his draft value?

    • Neil Parker 2017-08-04 at 12:07

      It’s really up in the air at this point, but the timeline doesn’t project to keep him out long, if at all.
      However, often times players who miss training camp are a little slow out of the gate.

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