Ramblings: Beware of Injury Optimism (Sept. 1)
Neil Parker
2017-09-01
Nothing can alter the fantasy landscape as much as injuries. A lengthy absence cripples a player's value, but it also opens the door for someone else to step up and fill the void.
One strategy I've begun to employ more and more across all fantasy sports is avoiding injured players in drafts, and in particular, steering clear of injury optimism. The reality is that players on your roster are going to get injured throughout the year, so why make it a point to begin your season with unhealthy players?
Obviously, there are cases where it can be beneficial to fill IR roster slots, and sometimes an injured player's value plummets so much that he becomes a ripe value. However, injury optimism is much more prevalent that pessimism, and gamers usually focus on the short side of return timelines. We all know that setbacks occur, and often times, players return from injuries at less than 100 percent and their production suffers.
Training camp and exhibition games will wreck havoc on depth charts in a few weeks, and saddling your fantasy club with multiple injured players can limit roster flexibility once the regular season begins. Again, this isn't a recommendation to cross a player off your draft board because of a minor ailment, but just a draft approach that has helped me become a more successful fantasy player — especially in industry leagues. Additionally, in most cases, the injury discount isn't big enough to pass up a healthy player.
In competitive settings, there aren't as many opportunities to gain an advantage on the room. Because most remain optimistic that players will return fully healthy and in midseason form from every injury, fading injured players has turned into a rare avenue to zig while others zag.
Injury statuses to consider leading into training camps.
Ducks
Ryan Kesler (hip), Hampus Lindholm (shoulder), Sami Vatanen (shoulder) and Kevin Bieksa (knee) are all in danger of missing time to begin the season, and Kelser in particular could potentially miss the entire month of October. Anaheim's blue line could be in a bit of a rough state to begin the season.
Coyotes
Tobias Rieder (ankle) is expected to be ready to return in time for the regular season following offseason ankle surgery. Jakob Chychrun (knee) is expected to return at some point during the 2017-18 campaign. However, the specifics of his injury were never released, so there is no exact timeline.
Bruins
The Bruins are expected to enter training camp with a healthy roster. It's definitely worth noting that Patrice Bergeron (abdomen) David Krejci (knee) and Tuukka Rask (groin) all underwent offseason surgery, though.
Sabres
Marco Scandella (hip) projects to be ready for the beginning of training camp following offseason surgery.
Flames
Sean Monahan (wrist) underwent minor offseason surgery and is expected to be ready for training camp. Mikael Backlund (back) and Michael Frolik (wrist) both skipped the World Championship to rest nagging injuries, but both forwards should be on track to begin camp at full health.
Blackhawks
Marian Hossa (illness) is the notable Hawk set to miss time because of side effects to a medication related to a progressive skin disorder. He isn't expected to play in 2017-18. Patrick Sharp (hip) underwent hip surgery in late March and projects to be ready for training camp, but the veteran's laundry list of injuries over the past few seasons shouldn't be ignored.
Blue Jackets
Brandon Dubinsky (wrist) is hopeful to be ready for Opening Night following offseason wrist surgery.
Avalanche
Semyon Varlamov (groin) underwent hip surgery in January to repair his injured groin. The netminder is reported to be fully recovered and healthy entering training camp. Nail Yakupov underwent knee surgery in May, and his status and return timeline are unknown heading into training camp.
Stars
Tyler Seguin (shoulder) underwent surgery in April to repair a torn labrum and is expected to be fully recovered and healthy entering training camp.
Red Wings
Tomas Tatar (shoulder) played through a shoulder injury last season and underwent offseason surgery to repair the ailment with a timeline to be ready for training camp. Justin Abdelkader didn't require offseason knee surgery after skipping the World Championship, so he should also be healthy entering training camp.
Oilers
Andrej Sekera (knee) underwent knee surgery in May, and he is looking at an early November return in a best-case scenario. The long end of the timeline would have Sekera out through the All-Star break.
Panthers
Both Roberto Luongo (lower body) and Aleksander Barkov (back) avoided offseason surgery and are expected to be at full health entering training camp.
Golden Knights
James Neal (hand) played with a broken hand through the final two rounds of the playoffs, but there hasn't been any indication that the winger won't be ready for training camp. Nate Schmidt (ankle) recently sustained an injury and his status is unknown heading into camp.
Kings
Marian Gaborik (undisclosed) underwent surgery in April and is expected to miss at least the beginning of training camp. Tyler Toffoli (knee) and Alec Martinez (groin) each had minor surgeries in April, but both are projected to be healthy to begin training camp.
Wild
Mikael Granlund (ankle) has already resumed training following an offseason ankle injury. However, it's also worth noting that he played through a broken hand during the playoffs. He still appears on track to be ready for training camp, though. Jason Zucker (abdomen) underwent surgery to repair a sports hernia in May, and Mathew Dumba (hand) suffered a broken hand during the playoffs, but both youngsters are also expected to be healthy for training camp.
Predators
Ryan Johansen (thigh), Nick Bonino (leg), Ryan Ellis (knee) and Kevin Fiala (leg) all appear in line to be ready for training camp. Bonino was the only one of the four not to undergo surgery, whereas, Ellis didn't go under the knife until July. Fiala has already resumed skating, so his progress is likely the most encouraging.
Devils
Travis Zajac (pectoral) recently underwent surgery to repair a torn pectoral muscle. He will be out until at least December and potentially through the first half of the season. Marcus Johansson (finger) skipped the World Championship with a finger injury, but there has been no indication that he won't be ready for training camp. He played through the injury during the playoffs.
Rangers
Rick Nash (knee) dealt with a knee injury during the second-round series against the Senators, and there hasn't been an update on his status leading into training camp. The 33-year-old veteran is probably good to go, but it's worth affirming that he's only played 70 games in one of the past four seasons.
Seantors
Erik Karlsson (foot) underwent offseason surgery in June to repair his left foot injury, and is expected to need four months to return. The timeline has the star defenseman eyeing a return in the middle of October, so Opening Night could be in question. Derick Brassard (shoulder) also underwent surgery in June, but his return timeline was four to five months, so the pivot could easily miss time to begin the season. The good news is that Mark Stone (leg) — who played through a leg injury during the playoffs — is expected to be ready for training camp.
Penguins
Letang (neck) underwent neck surgery in April, and he has reported progress throughout the summer. However, while the defenseman's optimistic for training camp, his injury track record shouldn't be overlooked. Carl Hagelin (leg) played with a broken fibula that wasn't completely healed during the playoffs, but he didn't undergo offseason surgery, so he projects to be ready for camp. Patric Hornqvist (finger) also played with a broken finger during the playoffs, and he also didn't require surgery.
Sharks
Logan Couture (face) recently said that he has been able to train despite continuing pain in his face, so he should be ready for training camp. Joe Thornton (knee) had surgery in April to repair his ACL and MCL, and he's expected to be healthy heading into camp. Tomas Hertl (foot) played with a broken foot during the postseason, but he didn't have surgery, so he also projects to be healthy for camp.
Blues
Unless there are any setbacks, Robby Fabbri (knee) will be ready for training camp following surgery to repair his torn ACL in February. Alexander Steen (foot) didn't require surgery for his broken foot, so he should be ready for camp. Vladimir Tarasenko (undisclosed) didn't play in the World Championship because of injury, but he didn't undergo surgery after much discussion about the matter in May. It would be surprising if the winger wasn't full-go for camp. Patrik Berglund (shoulder) sustained an shoulder injury while training that required surgery, and he's expected to be out until December.
Lightning
Steven Stamkos (knee) is expected to be ready for training camp and the beginning of the season following his knee surgery last November.
Maple Leafs
Patrick Marleau (thumb) played through a broken thumb during the playoffs, but considering he's suited up for every game in each of the past eight seasons, there aren't any concerns over his status this fall. While there hasn't been any official word that Nikita Zaitsev (concussion) is over his concussion symptoms, his seven-year contract extension is probably a good indication. It would be surprising if he wasn't ready for training camp.
Jets
Tobias Enstrom (knee) missed the end of last season, and Tyler Myers (lower body) was limited to just 11 games all year, but both blue liners currently project to be ready for training camp.
Healthy
Hurricanes, Canadiens, Islanders, Flyers, Canucks and Capitals
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