Ramblings: Fantasy Hockey Mailbag, Caps set the table – just need to add a Cup, Kovalchuk and more (June 5)

Dobber

2018-06-04

 

The Fantasy Prospects Report was released Friday to great response. A couple of errors were brought to my attention and I fixed for Saturday morning’s re-release. I plan to do the one and only real update for June 11 – depends if the Cup is won by then and we can complete a Mock. But as I do every year, I will write another three to 10 prospect profiles based on your requests. You can leave them in the comments below or discuss in the forum (I’ll find it if you post it).

Another thing I did in Saturday’s update was move a couple of prospects who were drafted in 2016 (or 2014 for European players in Europe) and were not signed by the June 1 deadline – Adam Mascherin (FLA) and Hudson Elynuik (CAR). I moved them to the “back in the draft” section. But I need to also move Brandon Hagel (BUF), who was announced later Saturday so I missed it.

If you’re interested in seeing what is in the Fantasy Prospects Report, I posted three screen shots in the shop page so you get a feel for what you’re getting. And with the Keeper League Fantasy Pack, then basically you pay another two bucks on top of the FPR to get the Fantasy Guide. Sounds pretty good to me!

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A lot? I think Alex Tuch will be Chris Kreider fantasy-wise and – knock on wood – doesn’t have the injury baggage to slow his development or reduce his production.

 

These questions are always tough because last year’s guys have always had an extra year to really make their mark. So while maybe he’d be drafted fourth overall last year if you shifted his age up a year…because we’ve seen great things from Casey Mittelstadt, Lias Andersson, Elias Pettersson, Cale Makar, Eeli Tolvanen and a few others, then I’d pick him 15th or 20th.

 

Elias Pettersson. But only because of Vancouver’s roster compared to Nashville’s (i.e. Tolvanen).

 

I still believe he will re-sign with the Islanders.

 

Samsonov is better, he has more talent and upside. But I would rather own Demko because his situation on a rebuilding team looks like it will time itself perfectly.

 

Whatever he wants to sign for. See Price, Carey. If you own Connor Hellebuyck in a cap league prepare to pay up. Especially if he wins the Vezina. Which he should.

 

Of course! He already got 24 with less than half the team’s PP time. Will he this year? I doubt it. But for sure within three seasons.

 

Honestly, from what I understand of the draft, after the first two picks it becomes too close to call. Yes, there seems to be a consensus about numbers three and four, but the number nine guy could easily move up because the gap between three and 10 isn’t huge. Jesperi Kotkaniemi we have ranked 13 but he’s also considered by many to be the top center available and it wouldn’t shock me if he moves higher to a team that needs center. Would I do it if I’m Montreal? No. However, if I really liked him or Joe Veleno, then I would trade down. I’d see if I can swap with sixth or seventh and get a second-round pick thrown in. Then I’d still get my guy plus the pick.

 

No, and I don’t think you can expect a lot offensively from Mete this year. Give him time. He’s a good one, but Weber has the top role right now. Mete and his career trajectory reminds me of Olli Maatta (and so far…even include the injuries).

 

I don’t think either do much next year, and I think Vilardi will do more in 2019-20. Caveat is – Los Angeles baffles me more than any other team and roster. I always seem to swing and miss with calling those guys.

 

I don’t think they’ll get any help. I think Ryan Nugent-Hopkins gets another shot, Ryan Strome gets another shot, Ty Rattie gets another shot, and even Kailer Yamamoto will at least get a look. With the Oilers right now all you can do is throw darts and hope the guy you land on is the right one. Trades are hard in the NHL, especially when the GMs saw what Peter Chiarelli did to get Adam Larsson. Other GMs will have a feast! Edmonton is not going to land a winger unless they give up their first-born son. The problem will have to be solved from within.

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They’ll still be a better team – better coaching (recently hired a couple of solid assistants to focus on areas of need), older and more experienced players (which is key), better goaltending with a top backup in Mikko Koskinen (plus Cam Talbot had twins last fall, so I think this year he’ll be more focused).

 

The year that both Mark Scheifele plays 82 games and McDavid misses 10 games with be the year Scheifele wins the Art Ross. If that happens, lock it in!

That’s a pretty heady assumption, but if RNH sticks there then he’ll have a career 70-point season. But I’d put him down for 55 right now – and do not assume linemates. In fact, my guess is less than 50% chance that happens for half the games next year.

 

Philipp Grubauer is a restricted free agent, Ilya Samsonov is coming to North America, and Pheonix Copley is on a one-way contract (albeit a cheap one). After his numbers this season, he’s going to demand a salary in excess of $2 million, likely more than $3.5 million after seeing what Scott Darling got with a worse resume. I understand that Samsonov is not ready and Copley is coming off a bad season – but Copley’s year was better than the numbers indicate. He’s a good goalie capable of backing up Holtby as long as Holtby remains healthy. So if the Caps can find a good trade partner, I say they move him this summer.

 

Andersen all the way.

 

Yes, yes, yes and Claude Giroux.

 

I am open to the possibility of a sophomore slump, but if that doesn’t happen then I say he gets around 45 points next season and then really blossoms to post some Torey-Krug-like numbers in the mid-50s.

 

Last one, sorry I couldn’t get to them all:

Elias Lindholm – Yes, I believe he will. I know it’s been five seasons now, so my expectations have dropped to 70 points at best. But there’s another gear…As for Tomas Hertl, I don’t like his chances as much. I think he gets hurt too much and I never thought he’d top 70 points to begin with…Couturier-esque breakout: Lindholm is a good candidate; Tyler Johnson…I’m just looking at guys who have been around for a few years and have established a production window. I’m not looking at young players on the rise such as Jake Guentzel, P-L Dubois, etc. because I think those are obvious candidates.

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Alex Ovechkin’s getting his Cup! Very excited and happy for him and all Caps’ fans. This was a long time coming. Sorry Vegas fans, your suffering is going to continue.

With 31 points now, Evgeny Kuznetsov is just five shy of Evgeni Malkin’s playoff scoring record for Russians.

I thought Vegas out-played Washington in the first eight or nine minutes, with three chances that could have been goals but for a mere centimeter or two. In fact, CBC played two of those chances over and over, but there was a hit post just two minutes in that I thought could have been a goal…but play continued for another four minutes so I never got to examine a replay. But once Washington scored midway through the period it was lights out, shut ‘er down.

If the Caps win in five games, I have to backtrack on Fleury winning the Conn Smythe. I think he should – but he won’t. Not when Ovechkin is playing the way he is and Kuznetsov has over 30 points. And not after giving up six goals in a game. It’s pretty much the one scenario that I said it would take to unseat Fleury from Smythe talks, except I thought it would require a sweep. Looks like losing in five games will be close enough. If Vegas takes the game Thursday and Fleury gets a shutout, then he’s back in the Smythe voting.

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Ilya Kovalchuk specifically told TSN that he will absolutely sign in the NHL because he wants to win a Stanley Cup. To me, that statement rules out his signing with the Islanders. If I’m Kovalchuk and Kovalchuk’s agent (yes I can be two people), and this is how I truly felt, then I would sign with the Penguins for $2 million and play with Malkin. Done.

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The top players typed into CapFriendly’s Buyout Calculator: Milan Lucic, Karl Alzner, Matt Moulson, Loui Eriksson, Marian Gaborik, Brooks Orpik, Marc Staal and Bobby Ryan. I just found that interesting.

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See you next week – I’ll just leave this tweet that I posted on May 11 here:

 

 

 

 

 

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