Ramblings: Barry Trotz, Galchenyuk-Domi, Shea Weber, and More – June 19
The big news from Monday was that the current head coach for the current Stanley Cup champions would become the former head coach for the current Stanley Cup champions. In the afternoon, Washington announced that Barry Trotz would be resigning from the club.
According Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post, Trotz had a clause in his contract that were he to win the Stanley Cup, an automatic two-year extension would kick in, on top of an extra $300 000 to each season, bringing his pay to $1.8-million per year. For those unfamiliar with the going rate for top-end coaches, particularly Cup-winning ones, he might be able to get three times that amount on the open market. It should be noted that this was an automatic extension, meaning the Caps had to accept his resignation, else they could just make him sit home for two years. They are allowing him to break his contract which, if he can get close to what coaches like Mike Babcock and Joel Quenneville earn, will be a big boost to Trotz’s bank account.
The Caps weren’t willing to give him the money and the term he was reportedly asking for. But someone will *cough* Islanders *cough*.
Bob McKenzie points out that it’s likely Todd Reirden gets promoted and takes over the bench boss duties but that there will still be some sort of formal coaching search. Until the time comes when the official coaching duties are announced, there’s no point in speculating what a new coach will do to the roster or systems.
All the same, best wishes to Trotz on whatever he does next. He helped bring a Cup to a long-suffering fanbase and did so after spending a decade and a half making hockey a must-watch sporting event in Nashville. Kudos to the Caps for allowing him to go get what he’s worth and good luck to Trotz.
There has been a lot of coverage here on the site with regards to the trade between Montreal and Arizona over the weekend. You can read Cam Robinson’s analysis of the Alex Galchenyuk–Max Domi deal and Ian Gooding’s here as well.
One point where I agree with both Ian and Cam is that league setup matters when trying to figure out the value for these guys. Galchenyuk has fewer penalty minutes over his last 205 regular season games than Domi had in 2017-18 alone. That is a difference-maker in leagues that count PIMs.
Other than that, though, this isn’t necessarily an upgrade for Domi. He likely lines up on the second line next year which means he gets Jonathan Drouin as his pivot. Drouin did not show the ability to play a top-end centre position last season. Does he improve on that this year? It’s possible. Does Domi get better line mates than Derek Stepan and Clayton Keller, his line mates when Domi put up 9 points in 13 October games? No.
Like Cam discussed, where Galchenyuk lines up will matter. Stepan is the top-line centre and Dylan Strome is the presumed number-2. Is Galchenyuk the third-line centre? It could work in a sheltered role but maybe he’d be better served on the wing in the top-six. My hunch is that maybe he plays a bit everywhere but eventually settles on the wing. There isn’t a lot of scoring depth on the wings in Arizona and he can help in this regard.
Galchenyuk’s defensive problems are well-documented and founded. That doesn’t mean he can’t be an impact player for the Coyotes. He should get top-six minutes with top power play minutes. A player with his skills can succeed with that. Again, league setups matter but I would still lean Galchenyuk here.
One final thing I’ll mention: he’ll be a great value in drafts come September if Domi can re-find his scoring touch in Montreal (i.e. not shoot 7 percent over two seasons). With his penalty minute potential, anything close to his rookie year can lead him to being very solid in roto leagues. He’s probably overvalued in real hockey but he’s probably going to be undervalued in fantasy hockey. Smart owners can take advantage of people who can’t separate the two.
Also wanted to point out Dobber’s take on Marc Bergevin’s move here. The move itself isn’t horrific. But it’s probably another trade the Habs lose, however thin that margin is. If you keep losing deals, even with small margins, over and over, it’s death by a thousand cuts. One move that doesn’t work out is fine; several moves that don’t work out is a pattern of ineptitude.
There’s a lesson there for fantasy owners. You can’t be afraid of making trades in your leagues. You have to give something to get something, and sometimes you’re going to lose a trade. I can think of a laundry list of trades I’ve made over the years that didn’t work out. It happens. Now, if it happens all the time, maybe review what considerations you’re making when proposing, mulling over, or accepting a trade. There is something clearly wrong in your process. You can’t be afraid of making mistakes when going for a title, but you also can’t keep making mistakes over and over.
Try to be more like David Poile and less like Marc Bergevin.
With the draft ahead this week, don’t forget to grab your copy of the Dobber Prospects Report! Get a head start on your league mates to know the players and situations for rookie drafts, dynasty drafts, and more!
Speaking of topics that are being beaten to death: John Tavares!
Also according to McKenzie, the Leafs may be putting together some sort of promotional package. Knowing just how absolutely brutal any promotional/marketing material by almost every team in the league is, I hope this is made public sometime. It’s either going to be so bad it’s awful or so bad it’s really good.
Anyway, to fantasy-related stuff.
I said it months ago in a Ramblings and I stand by it: I would love to see Tavares go Vegas. This is a team with a young core that is only going to improve but we saw them run into problems with scoring depth at times. With the uncertainty of David Perron and James Neal, it’s 40-some goals that they may need to replace. It would provide a buffer and some safety for youngsters Nick Suzuki and Cody Glass while providing the team with a true, bona fide superstar.
The most likely conclusion here is just Tavares re-signing with the Islanders. We all know that. It doesn’t mean we can speculate. That’s the point of fantasy hockey!
Not really fantasy-relevant (yet) but the ownership group looking to bring a franchise to Seattle hired former Arizona coach Dave Tippett to be their senior advisor. He would be responsible for helping get things moving on the hockey operations side of things. Whether he stays on after they get a team (if they get a team) remains to be seen but it’s just one more needle tick in the direction of the Western Conference getting another team sooner rather than later.
While I was thinking about Galchenyuk, Shea Weber came to mind for me. Namely, I’m wondering where his ADP is going to be next season. Or is it this season? Can we say “this season” yet? What’s the cut-off?
Injuries limited him to 26 games in 2017-18 but if you worked out his “on pace” numbers, this is what we get for 78 games, a number he reached in eight straight 82-game seasons: 18 goals, 30 assists, 42 PIMs, 225 shots, 198 hits, 177 blocks. That number of goals would have led the NHL among defencemen. The 30 assists would have been one off a four-year high. The 225 assists would have been the highest mark in three years. Those PIMs would have also been a three-year high. The blocks would have been a career high. The hits would have been his highest mark since 2010-11.
In all, *if* he could have kept up those marks for a full year, he would have been an excellent fantasy commodity.
Back to my question: what’s his ADP going to be? He was probably drafted in the top-10 defencemen in your fantasy drafts for 2017-18. Does he fall out of the top-10? Where does he have to go for you to feel comfortable drafting him?
I won’t start my projections until free agency settles down but assuming Weber doesn’t lose his PP slotting – which I cannot imagine he does – is there a reason, other than health, that Weber takes a step back next season? He’s getting older but he didn’t really seem to take a step back, at least for fantasy production, last year. If he plays 25 minutes a night with top PP time, maybe he can be the guy we have seen for the last few years. If I can grab him as a second defenceman in 12-team leagues, I’ll be hard-pressed to pass that up.
No data at this moment.