Capped: Preparing for the 2018-19 Season

Alexander MacLean

2018-09-27

 

Last week capped off our “buy and sell” series covering each NHL team, analyzing one player to buy, and one to sell (links to parts one, two, three, four, five, six, and seven). Check these out for some added insight on a few undervalued and overvalued players heading into this season.  

 

****

Weekly reminder to get the DobberHockey 2018-2019 Fantasy guide so you can research anyone else you need to for all your offseason trade discussions and draft needs. It’s not too late to get it before your drafts, but do it early. Don’t expect to just skim through it in an hour. There is too much excellent content in it for that.

 

****

RFAs

And then there were two. William Nylander and Nick Ritchie continue to negotiate new contracts, sticking to their guns in contract talks with their respective clubs. Toronto and Anaheim both have some depth at forward, so should either player miss time, the teams shouldn’t struggle much without them in the lineup. A holdout could even present an even better opportunity for a younger player to jump into some more favourable ice time. Keep an eye on Maxime Comtois, Sam Steel and Troy Terry from the Ducks, as well as Tyler Ennis, Kasperi Kapanen and Josh Lievo from the Maple Leafs. This is especially relevant for the Anaheim trio, as Corey Perry will be missing the next five months after undergoing knee surgery.

Both teams have the cap space necessary to get a deal done, but how much of a dent is a new contract going to put in their caps?

My contract prediction model gives these numbers:

William Nylander: An AAV of $8,500,000 for eight years.

Nick Ritchie: An AAV of $2,600,000 for three years.

Nylander’s contract prediction comes out where some pundits expect his ask to be, matching Leon Draisaitl’s contract. Nylander has earned it to this point, and in points leagues, would likely be worth the cost across the length of the contract. It is a tough pill to swallow for the Maple Leafs however, and it is likely there are looking for a deal more in the $6 million range.

Time will tell who blinks first, but if it’s a long-term deal, my bet is it’s Kyle Dubas, settling for an AAV up around $7.85