Eastern Edge: Production Against Career Norms – December 4

Cam Metz



Entering week nine of the fantasy hockey season and you’re league has probably seen the trade activity pickup.  I hit on some trade targets last week and I ran the data again this week, unfortunately not too many changes occurred, which I suppose leaves the window open for most of the guys that were talked about last week. 

Returning to the theme of valuing players, I took a look at a bunch of players using a nice little visualizer I came up with last week to give you an idea of where a player is trending. Let’s first dig through the details – I plotted Assists/GP, Goal/GP, and Points/GP for each player. The red bar is the current pace at which that player is producing as of 12/2/2018.  The greenish bar is the three year mean of the player.  Obviously the three year mean can be a little tricky to use as a baseline for newer players but using some data captured from expert predictions and career averages I made some guesses on who might be fun to talk about in the East.  One last observation – the smaller numbers at the top of each bar represent the per game pace, and the bolded blue numbers inside of the bar are the 82 game pace extrapolated out for both data series.



So let’s walk together through the first one – Nikita Kucherov has gone absolutely ballistic in the last nine games with 20 points.  He is on pace for 82 assists, gaining on average 1 assist per game.  Over his last three years, he has averaged 50 assists total at 0.61 assists per game.  Needless to say Kucherov has been driving play and getting a lot of the points that have been scored by the TB; his IPP is 85% which, crazily enough, is only 5% higher than the last three years.  With two seasons above 90 total points, this could be the season Kucherov sets career highs – as he is currently on pace for 116. He’s shooting 16.4%, which is not outrageous, given his ability.  As I have mentioned before his shot volume is down a little (Next week I’ll incorporate that into the visual, have another item you want to see? Find me on twitter at @DH_jcameronmetz),  so the l