Ramblings: Comparing goal rates for non-elite players, part 2

Michael Clifford


In Tuesday's Ramblings, we discussed players who outscored their expected goals rates by the most significant margin in 2019-20. The reason for that is just to figure out who might be overheating and who is not.

As mentioned a couple times in those Ramblings, just because a player outscores their expected goals does not mean they are merely lucky. Rather, when we see the list of players, we see a lot of the players we consider to be elite. It was the few names we don't consider as such that was of importance to us.

The inverse is true for players at the bottom of the list, or rather, the players who failed to live up to their expected goals rates by the biggest margins. The funny thing is, there aren't a lot of marginal NHLers. There are a lot of people who are or have been very good NHLers but did not perform to expectations in 2019-20.

Here are the bottom-20 players by goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 less expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. All data from Natural Stat Trick:



Yeah, there aren't a lot of bad players there, so that gives us more players to discuss.


Jordan Staal

It's been a while since Staal broke the 50-point mark (he was still in Pittsburgh, actually), so I'm not sure how many people have bee