Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on very active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding everyone how great of a resource the Forums are, especially now that the season has been suspended. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually will get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of Alex MacLean’s weekly Capped column.

As a reminder, you can access the forum thread on which the question is based by clicking on the “Topic” for each question.

Topic #1 – Which two of Patrik Laine, Mikko Rantanen, and Sebastian Aho should be kept in a league where the skater categories are G, A, Pts, +/-, PIM, and PPPts and the starting lineups consist of 2C, 2LW, 2RW, and 2 UTIL?

A year ago this would've been a slam dunk keep of Aho and Rantanen, what with Laine coming off a season of 50 points in 82 games and looking less like the budding superstar many pegged him to be. But for 2019-20 Laine not only was on his way to his best point per game output of his career but he also more assists than goals. The latter is significant, as before Laine had almost two goals for every assist during his career, leading to concern he might turn out to be a threat for 40-50 goals per year but no more than 30-35 assists, capping his scoring at roughly point per game level, or less than what's projected for Aho and below what Rantanen has already shown.

Readers of my column know I like to look at past precedent for guidance on how players might perform. With Laine, since 2000-01 only five others, like him, had 135+ goals and 900+ SOG over their first four seasons: Steven Stamkos, Evgeni Malkin, Ilya Kovalchuk, Alex Ovechkin and Auston Matthews. In terms of Rantanen, he had two 84+ point seasons by age 22, which, since 2000-01, has been accomplished by all who met Laine's criteria other than Matthews, but also by Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, and Nicklas Backstrom. With Aho, although his stats haven't been quite as eye-opening, he still had three seasons of 0.8 points per game and 29+ goals by age 22, feats that have been matched, since 2000-01, by Kovalchuk, Crosby, Stamkos, Malkin, McDavid, Ovechkin, and Matthews. So all have superb – and similar – comparables; as such, none gets an advantage on that basis.

For 2019-20, Aho was on track for roughly point per game scoring for the second consecutive season, which is the same level as Rantanen, down from his higher scoring ways of the past two campaigns but also perhaps influenced by the time he missed due to injury. And Laine was up to 63 points in 68 games, which, as noted above, represents his highest per game scoring rate of his career. One key is two categories in this league have nothing to do with scoring, namely +/- and PIM. In that regard, Aho has been the most consistently plus player and is on the weakest team of the three, so he could even stand to improve in that area. None are big in PIM, but Rantanen has shown a little bit of feistiness in the past. Rantanen also has the best track record when it comes to PPPts, with Laine solid in the area and Aho decent but not superb.

I think Rantanen has to make the cut. He's a great player and has Nathan MacKinnon on his line, with neither of the other two likely to share the ice with someone of Mac's caliber. Simply playing with MacKinnon puts Rantanen's downside at a point per game numbers, but upside at 90-95+. I think that's tops among these three.

The other pick is tough. Aho has done more without surrounding talent, and still likely hasn't peaked. He might also have dual position eligibility. Laine, on the other hand, has shined this season but still is not at point per game levels and that is despite sharing the ice with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, two of the more talented players in the league. So for the other spot give me Aho and his individual talent plus the ability of his team to get even better, creating a rising tide that will lift all boats, including his.

Topic #2 – In a 12 team league with starting line-ups of 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2G (plus 5 Bench) and categories of G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV%, which four of these players should be kept: Sebastian Aho (C), Sean Couturier (C), Leon Draisaitl (C/LW), Andrei Svechnikov (LW/RW), Patrik Laine (LW/RW), JT Miller (LW/RW), Blake Wheeler (C/RW), Steven Stamkos (C/LW/RW), Jacob Trouba (D), Darnell Nurse (D), Mark Giordano (D) and Jacob Markstrom (G)?

First the easy part – I don't keep any defensemen. They're not even close to the caliber of the forwards. It's not a slam-dunk though when it comes to Markstrom. On the one hand, if every team keeps at least one goalie, that will be a lot of netminders off the board before the draft even starts. Nevertheless, as noted in my most recent mailbag, the concept of goalie tiers is blurring. As such, what I'd do is try to trade Markstrom and a forward for an elite goalie, whom I'd keep. If such a deal can't be done, then I'd try to trade just a non-kept forward for a top pick, then not keep Markstrom and plan on redrafting him or another goalie with the pick.

Which forwards should be kept? Couturier is for sure a drop, and Draisaitl a must keep. As for Miller (a notch below in scoring potential) and Wheeler (age concerns), they both come with question marks, but they also happen to be among the most complete as far as the categories. Still, in the end, I think they both are drops (or potential trade bait), as you can find contributions in multi-cat much easier than you can find top scorers and can redraft them more easily.

So who should be the other keeps? If you trade a forward and Markstrom for a goalie to keep, that leaves you with two more spots, which I think would be Stamkos, due to production and positional flexibility, and Aho, for reasons noted above. If a third forward is kept, I think I go with Svechnikov, as he is very solid in Hits and SOG plus took huge steps in just his second season and at age 19. So once again Laine is on the outside looking in, making him who I'd first try and trade with Markstrom to get a goalie. Or the plan could be to keep Laine and trade one of the Carolina forwards if having more than one forward keep be from the same team is concerning.

Topic #3 – In an H2H, 10 team, 25 roster (3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 2G start per night) league with the following skater categories: G (4), A (2.5), SOG (0.2), HIT (0.2), BLKS (0.2), PPP, GWG, PIMS (0.2), +/- (+/-0.5), what five should be kept from among this list (2019-20 average fantasy points per game noted in parentheses):

Mika Zibanejad C (6.16)

Brayden Point C (4.0)

Mark Stone RW (4.13)

Brady Tkachuk LW/RW (4.04)

Gabriel Landeskong C/LW (4.03)

Anthony Mantha LW/RW (4.03)

Dougie Hamilton D (4.49)

Zibs and Hamilton are auto-keeps, and I'd say that even if I didn't have the benefit of knowing they had the highest average fantasy points. Both showed enough this season to prove they're genuine stars and cornerstones around which to build a fantasy team.

I'm also keeping Tkachuk, as he was one of your top scorers despite barely scratching the surface in terms of what he's likely to do. Or to put it another way, he should only get better from here, which is more than can be said for most of the other choices. Give me Landeskog too, as after a weak start he was really coming on strong and should go back to his 2017-18 self, when my guess is he averaged at, near, or even above five fantasy points per game.

That leaves Stone, Point, and Mantha for the last spot. Stone is rock solid and consistent; yet unlike the other two, he has no upside given his age, statistical trends, and team. As for Point, what we saw from him this season is what I'd likely consider a worst-case scenario in terms of his production, and even then he was barely behind Stone. Mantha should only get better and posted that many points per game despite the fact he was on a Detroit team that barely scored. I'd go with Mantha over Point though due to his upside plus dual-wing eligibility, putting keeps as Zibanejad, Hamilton, Tkachuk, Landeskog, and Mantha.

Topic #4 – In what order would the following players rank in a league counting G (1), A (1), Hits (0.1), Blocks (0.1), and PIM (0.1) as skater categories: Colton Parayko, Noah Hanifin, Jaccob Slavin, Rasmus Ristolainen, and Ryan Pulock?

Risto is a lock for the top spot because he is a Hits and Blocks machine who still, in an off-year, was scoring just below a point per every other game and usually is good for 40-50 PIM. Hanifin is ranked last. Yes, he's still only 23; however, he's yet to show he has the tools to ever become a big scorer, plus he doesn't really stuff the stat sheet in other areas.

The rest of the three are pretty close. I'd put Parayko in second because I believe he – not, as many seem to expect, Justin Faulk – will be the biggest beneficiary once Alex Pietrangelo leaves as a UFA; and even now, he's good for 35 points to go along with about three Hits plus blocks per contest. Slavin is having a solid year; but much of that is likely due to Dougie Hamilton's 21 game absence, during which he had 14 points. I can't see Slavin getting more than 35 points if there is a healthy Hamilton around, and his output in other categories isn't enough to put him ahead of Parayko. I'd also put Pulock ahead of Slavin, but barely. Pulock was thought to be on the fast track to being a top tier rearguard scorer, but his deployment has not been favorable. In time, however, he should become more of a true #1 d-man, taking productive minutes from Nick Leddy and Devon Toews. He also already has very good hits and blocks, which shouldn't get any worse. So my ranking of the five is Risto, Parayko, Pulock, Slavin, then Hanifin.

Topic #5 – How do these goalies rank for next season and three seasons from now: Igor Shesterkin, Robin Lehner, Jacob Markstrom, Ilya Samsonov, Brayden Holtby?

Next season is a cloudy picture because Holtby, Markstrom and Lehner are UFAs. Given what they will sign for, they'll be starters; but their value depends a lot on where they land. Of the two, I like Markstrom better because of Holtby's age and declining stats. I fear he could be to next season what Sergei Bobrovsky was to 2019-20. Then there's Lehner, whom many thinks will be a starter. If he gets a chance to be a true #1, he should be at least the equal of Markstrom.

If Holtby doesn't re-sign with Washington, Samsonov becomes the starter there. But I think he might have some growing pains, as his stats once the calendar flipped to 2020 were subpar and many of his best games this season were against weaker and/or lower scoring teams. He also didn't exactly light the AHL on fire last season.

Shesterkin has played well at every level and has superstar written all over him. On paper, it's impossible not to rank him #1 come three seasons from now. And were it not for the fact that New York might have three netminders under contract for 2020-21, he could be near the top for next season. But what likely occurs is they gradually work toward him taking over as the #1, so he won't get the number of starts that Markstrom and Holtby will, and perhaps Lehner too. Still though, what he could give in 40-45 games might surpass what Holtby may provide.

So for next season, I have them ranked as Markstrom and, assuming he signs with a team which makes him the starter, Lehner, followed by Shesterkin, Holtby, and Samsonov. In three years I'd go with Shesterkin, Lehner, Samsonov, Markstrom, and Holtby. The big wild card is Samsonov, as we've not yet seen enough of him to determine if he'll shine when given the keys to the car, or instead falter and not have the tools to be a true #1 netminder.

Topic #6 – In a 20 Team Dynasty League with Cap (NHL+20%) and offensive categories of G, A, PTS, STP, SOG, -PIM, HIT, BLK, FOW, which of the following players who had down years would it be worth gambling to acquire: Nino Niederreiter, Mikael Granlund, Alexander Radulov, Justin Faulk, Ryan Dzingel, and Ryan Getzlaf?

Taking them in order, at first I was tempted to tag Niederreiter for a rebound until I saw the fact that he played as poorly as he did despite getting plenty of chances with the best forwards on Carolina. Yes, 2018-19 wasn't his only season where he posted 50+ points; however, his SOG rate and ice times were both down and he's not paid so much as to force the team to continue to trot him out as a top-six forward if his play doesn't merit it. Probably he gets back to 40-45 points next season, but I would not peg him as a good bet for more than that.

For Granlund, the fact that he's only two seasons removed from back-to-back seasons where he had a scoring pace of 70+ points is significant, as is him still being only 28 years old and being an impending UFA. Him getting out of Nashville would likely be a huge benefit to him, not just because he could go to a more up-tempo team, but also he'd be away from the scrutiny that fell upon him this season due to the player – Kevin Fiala – for whom he was traded looking like he's on the fast track to stardom. On the right team, Granlund should bounce back to 60+ or perhaps 65+ points.

In terms of Radulov, due to his extended NHL absence, it's difficult to remember that he's 33 years old, making a rebound all the less likely. Still, is it logical for a player's output to have fallen so much? The big issue for him was his ice time took a big hit, due to his poor play, setting up a chicken and egg situation where he needs to play better to get more ice time but likely can't play better without more ice time. Still, in the minutes he did play his SOG rate was down despite a career-high OZ% and playing most often with Tyler Seguin from Q1-Q3 of the season. By Q4, however, Radulov was out of the top six and that might be his new normal. With him there is likely no middle ground – that is, he either does just as poorly next season or he rebounds back to 65+ points, as I don't see him being someone who scores at a 55-65 point rate.

The fact that the Blues gave up a lot to acquire Faulk, and then signed him to a long term deal to avoid him going to unrestricted free agency, would appear to anoint him as the heir apparent to Alex Pietrangelo, and, in turn, Pietrangelo's prime deployment. But here's the thing – Faulk was getting top deployment in Carolina for several years, and never could live up to expectations set after he posted 49 points in 2014-15. As noted above, I actually think Colton Parayko will step up and see a big boost in his production, rather than Faulk, who will likely take on tough minutes but not be the go-to guy for blueline offence. I think Faulk will score in the 30s next season and beyond, much as he did while in Carolina, with an off chance to reach 40 simply due to being on a more talented and likely higher scoring team.

Dzingel was a great success story for 2018-19; however, to see such a spike in his production just when he was hitting unrestricted free agency set off many alarm bells. And rightfully so, as this season he looks more like the player most thought he is/was, namely, a middle-six forward who can chip in with points from time to time but is by no means a big scorer, even on an up and coming Carolina team. With him, the expectation going forward should be 35-45 points, with the exact number depending on how potent the Carolina offence becomes, as it could be a rising tide which lifts all boats, including that of Dzingel.

When the season paused, Getzlaf was scoring at his worst pace……ever! While it might be easy to write off something like that if Getzlaf was a few years younger, we're talking about a guy who's just about to turn 35 and surpassed the 1000 career games played mark this season. He still has playmaking ability, I think; however, the reality that he's likely lost a step, combined with the lack of much of a supporting cast around him, will make it difficult for him to climb back to much more than a 60 point scoring rate, if even that.

All things considered, Granlund is the safest pick to possibly rebound to previous levels and Radulov is a risk/reward choice. The rest seem like they'll see at best minor to no improvement over what we saw from them this season.

Topic #7 – What is Josh Morrissey's trajectory? At 25 has he reached what likely will be his peak, or can he still improve?

For a moment this season, Morrissey looked like he might be morphing into a scoring d-man, as he had 14 points in his first 19 games and was seeing over three minutes of man-advantage time per contest. But then Neal Pionk stepped up to the plate; and with that, Morrissey was back to being relegated to a less offensively-conductive role. Morrissey is one of a number of players who almost assuredly could produce a lot better offensively if given the opportunity, but whose "real life" all-around hockey skill is too important to his team.

In the case of Winnipeg, Morrissey's value as a defensive stalwart was made all the more key due to the departures of Jacob Trouba and Tyler Myers, plus the absence of Dustin Byfuglien. Yes, all three also weren't around in Q1 when Morrissey was all over the score sheet; however, once the team saw that Neal Pionk, who is less multi-dimensional than Morrissey, could step into the role of being "the guy" to generate blueline offence, Morrissey's fate was sealed and, in turn, his excellent production was halted. And as such the 17 points Morrissey scored in his subsequent 46 games was more in keeping with the rate at which he's likely to produce in at least the next few seasons, barring an injury to Pionk.

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Questions for Mailbag column

Despite no hockey being played at the moment, readers have filled the mailbag; so I'm all set for questions for the next edition. But it's still never too early to put yourself in the queue for the following month. To get your questions to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.