21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles

Mario Prata

2020-08-16

Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Cam Robinson, and Dobber


 

1. One thing I wonder about is if the Rangers will draft Alexis Lafrenière with their first overall pick. There are prospect people – our Cam Robinson being one of them – who have Quinton Byfield over Lafrenière on their board. The team also has Artemi Panarin and Chris Kreider, two left wingers, under contract for most of the upcoming decade.

The Rangers have a glaring hole down the middle that they’ve been plugging with Ryan Strome, and they have hope for Filip Chytil being that guy, but that spot needs an upgrade. Do they entertain adding Byfield instead of Lafrenière? Teams have gone a bit off the board in the last couple seasons with high picks to draft for need, like Montreal with Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Detroit with Moritz Seider. Could the Rangers do something similar? We’ll have to wait and see. (aug11)

 

2. As Cliffy pointed out in the Ramblings last night (just above), I’m one of the only public evaluators out there who have Byfield in the pole position on my draft board. It’s been that way since December and it won’t be changing ahead of the actual event in the fall.

The thing is, if Pittsburgh, Toronto, or Edmonton landed lucky, it’d be a slam dunk for the left-wing, Lafrenière. But NYR is in a slightly different position. They have Panarin leading the left-flank for the next six years. They just extended Kreider for seven seasons on LW2.

Meanwhile, they have a true number one center in Mika Zibanejad and then a patch job of pivots. You slide a potential unicorn down the middle with Panarin, Kaapo Kakko, Kreider and the rest of the wingers and you’re dancing in the moonlight. Now, this isn’t to say the Rangers couldn’t slide the right-handed Panarin to the right side and open up a spot for Lafrenière in the top six. But do you really want your Hart trophy candidate shifting around?

You could also draft Lafreniere, use him all around the top nine for the first couple of ELC seasons and then look to trade Kreider out, thus making room for the big second-contract and opening up an offensive space. There are a lot of options here. But of all the teams to grab the top slot, NYR is one who could get wild. (aug12)

 

3. All that said, I’m still expecting the team to take Lafreniere and to me, that only increases Zibanejad’s stock moving forward. Sure, the Swedish center saw most of his even-strength ice with Kreider last season. And probably sees the same next year. But long term, he could/should be centring two of Panarin, Kakko and Lafreniere. That’s dream-like stuff for a guy who just scored at a 60-goal pace.

Can you say, top-10 fantasy skater? (aug12)

 

4. Carey Price continues to add to his 2020 postseason legend, posting a 30-save shutout in Game 3 on Friday. That was the seventh playoff shutout of his career for Price, who has some dominant numbers over his last four postseasons. To say he’s been a difference maker would be an understatement. I guess the players were on to something when they voted him the league’s best goalie shortly after the pause. (aug15)

 

5. Going into Sunday action, Jesperi Kotkaniemi had a Habs' team-leading four goals during the postseason. The trip to the AHL may have helped him find his groove, as he recorded 13 points in 13 games there. He’s one of what could be many examples of a player that is finding new life after the pause. I wrote more about Kotkaniemi in a Ramblings from last month. (aug15)

 

6. Bo Horvat is playing what might be the best hockey of his career at exactly the right time. The Canucks captain is rising to the occasion with a league-leading six goals thus far this postseason, including the overtime winner 5:55 into the first extra period on Friday

If you want to talk Horvat with a Canucks fan, just don’t compare him to Mark Messier. You can bring up the fact that Horvat has nine points (6g-3a) in six postseason games this season and 13 points in 12 career postseason games. He looks like a player that ups his play when the stakes get higher. (aug15)

 

7. I’m getting lots of mileage on my Pierre-Luc Dubois pick in my hockey pool, where he is at the time of writing my leading scorer (eight points in seven games). A total of eight Leafs were picked ahead of him in this particular playoff pool, which tells you which team most thought would win that play-in series. Dubois is really demonstrating his value as a possible top-line center. (aug14)

 

8. After playing over an entire game in Game 1 (65:06!), the hockey world is currently witnessing what an outstanding defenseman Seth Jones is and how integral he is to the Blue Jackets game plan. Maybe a future Norris Trophy candidate? (aug14)

 

9. A thought here but I do think the Colorado defense is generally underrated. It’s probably not even avoidable, really, when looking at all the talent the team has up front, plus the offensive supernova that is Cale Makar. But this team was tied with Vegas and St. Louis in expected goal share at 5-on-5 this regular season, and were fourth in actual goals against.

Now, their goaltending deserves a lot of credit here and the forwards always play a part as well, but even through all the injuries to the forwards this year, the blue line still held up comparably to other defensive stalwarts around the league. That’s what makes them such a dangerous team. They can flat-out run up the score, or they can shut things down, as they did Wednesday. I don’t think they really have a weak pair, either. Yes, they have a top pair and so on down, but even their depth is good. With Bowen Byram on the way… (aug13)

 

10. There will be changes to come for the Penguins. Mike Sullivan is still around but the assistant coaches, including Mark Recchi and Sergei Gonchar, are gone. There’s no telling what will happen here.

My one gripe here is that the conversations going are now are the same conversations we had five years ago. Some people wanted one of Evgeni Malkin or Kris Letang (or both) gone. Then they won two Cups. Everyone is older now, but this team had a better points percentage in the regular season than Vegas or Carolina and a better expected goal share than Cup contenders like Washington and Philadelphia. Sometimes, your coach is hell-bent on giving Jack Johnson ice time in the playoffs, and your team pays for it. Such is life.

There are options. Malkin has just two years left on his contract and will be 36 years old for his next one. Maybe now is the time to make that monster deal? Or maybe something smaller like trading Bjugstad or McCann. Or, and hear me out, don’t keep playing Jack Johnson. (aug13)

 

11. Now, I'm not saying you need to be rushing out to grab Dillon Dube in your keeper leagues, but I wouldn't sleep on him either. He has just 70 games to his NHL resume and clicked at nearly a 30-point pace. That's seeing just 12 minutes a night with nary a whiff of PP action. I predict that will change moving forward. (aug12)

Dube's main hindrance to more even-strength ice is Andrew Mangiapane. The 24-year-old had a great first full campaign, scoring 17 goals without any PP time himself. The difference is that Mangiapane skates with Matthew Tkachuk and Mikael Backlund. (aug12)

 

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12. Over the off-season, I will read any and everything on Tyson Barrie‘s time with the Leafs imaginable. By a number of measurements – WAR, primary points/60 at 5-on-5, points/60 on the power play – it was his worst season in five years and possibly his worst season since his rookie 2013 campaign.

This was a guy who established himself as one of the top offensive defensemen in hockey over the course of a half-decade, and he looked anything but for most of his Leafs tenure. What happened? I would be very interested to read any and all analysis of his year. (aug11)

 

13. Regarding Nick Robertson: The 18-year-old did not look out of place as an NHLer during the play-in and he has nothing left to prove in junior hockey. But he was mostly snakebitten and eventually scratched in favor of the returning Andreas Johnsson. Robertson will probably stay with the Leafs for at least the first nine games, but he’ll need to put points on the board or he may not make it to 10 (thereby activating his contract and burning a year of their control over him). (aug10)

 

14. Regarding the Oilers' goaltending: While Mikko Koskinen had a weak play-in performance, on the plus side he had a decent season and seems to be improving each year. But he’s now 32 – will he peak soon? Has he? I can’t see the Oilers re-signing Mike Smith, who is now 38 and clearly not an NHL starter anymore. Can they afford to bring in another free agent goalie?

They can’t afford Braden Holtby or Jacob Markstrom. Ironically, they can afford Cam Talbot, who seems to be upping his value back to where it was three years ago. Robin Lehner? He might go cheapish (sub-$5M) if he gets a long-term deal. And Koskinen would be the perfect backup, even though he’s making $4.5M. Thomas Greiss is another option, but do they want to go that old again? Greiss is 34. (aug10)

 

15. On Tristan Jarry vs. Matt Murray: The latter wasn’t terrible, but Jarry was great albeit in limited action. Everyone seems to think that a trade is inevitable, but I disagree. I think these two restricted free agents will sign “show me” deals. Likely just under $3 million for Jarry, and just under $4 million for Murray. Both for one year. Murray just made $3.75M so likely similar there.

Yes, this pushes him straight to UFA status, so maybe the Pens give him a bit more and sign him for two years, but I see them carrying both goalies and letting the best one take over the net by the spring. Murray’s constant injuries seem to have hampered his skills, so Jarry may come out on top here. (aug10)

 

16. Regarding Ryan Johansen:After an absolutely miserable season that saw him on pace for just 43 points, Johansen led his team in scoring with five points in four games during the play-ins. He really clicked with Viktor Arvidsson and Filip Forsberg and I suspect his struggles were closely tied with Arvidsson’s injuries. So again – a healthy year from Arvidsson would help Johansen tremendously. (aug10)

 

17. On Mike Matheson: I blame Joel Quenneville. I think a lot of other coaches could have played on the strengths of Matheson and turned that raw talent (and huge paycheck) into a star. Instead, Matheson was a healthy scratch at times this season. Minimal ice time, followed by getting scratched twice. He’s not going to get into the flow of the game if he gets 11 minutes of ice time.

Right now, Quenneville is a legend. So, in a Quenneville vs. Matheson battle, obviously Quenneville wins. But the team can’t carry Matheson at a $4.875M contract for the next six years if he’s getting scratched from games! How can they trade that contract though? I’ll be watching what the Panthers do with Matheson. If he’s traded, I’ll admit I’ll be very interested in him on a different team. (aug10)

 

18. Regarding Jansen Harkins: Time and again I go on here and preach about opportunity. Prospects who aren’t doing “great” but still get ranked highly because they were top picks and will get a million chances to thrive. And prospects who are doing great, but get just one or two opportunities at the age of 23 or 24. They need to take full advantage of those limited opportunities and Harkins has done this. Jordan Winnington is another example.

I can see Harkins as a third-liner next year, but with the type of work ethic and clutch play to force his way into the top six. Perhaps sooner than we think. (aug10)

 

19. On Ryan Strome: Nothing I saw in the Rangers' short play-in series indicated to me that his strong regular season numbers were a fluke. Granted, he was off the Artemi Panarin line, but he still posted points and he was still on the top power-play unit. His regular season 5on5 S% of 10.5 indicates a small decline, but that would depend on if he is off the Panarin line permanently. Obviously playing with Panarin inflates that number. (aug10)

 

20. Paul Fenton takes a lot of heat for his tenure as the GM of the Wild, but trading Mikael Granlund for Kevin Fiala looks like a stroke of genius today. Coach Dean Evason also seems to be able to get the most out of Fiala, as Evason also coached Fiala in the AHL when the two were both in the Nashville organization.

Between his skating ability and shot, Fiala looks like he could do real damage. I think I said he would reach around 60 points next season, but after watching him during these series, I’d estimate this number to be closer to a floor than a ceiling. Once Kirill Kaprizov is brought into the fold, the Wild will have a second potential gamebreaker. (aug9)

 

21. The biggest question mark for the Wild appears to be in goal. Alex Stalock and Devan Dubnyk are both under contract for next season, which means they could form some type of timeshare tandem. If you’re looking for an AHL goalie that could force his way in as the starter as early as next season, then you’ll want to keep an eye on Kaapo Kahkonen. He posted a 2.07 GAA and .927 SV% in 34 games for the AHL’s Iowa Wild. Those numbers were good enough for him to be named the AHL’s goalie of the year. Contracts aside, he deserves his shot.

Finally, it's worth mentioning that Mikko Koivu may have played his last NHL game. The longtime Minnesota center is now 37 and is a UFA this offseason. Given his lengthy service time and role as team captain for the Wild, I wonder if his #9 is retired by the organization. (aug9)

 

Have a good week, folks be safe!!

Thanks for continuing to support the website and if you’re bored and need a fantasy hockey fix – visit the gang in the forum here.

 

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