Ramblings – Thoughts on Roy, Holtby, Allen vs. Winnington, Beauvilier, and more (August 17)

Dobber

2020-08-17

The Caps, recent Stanley Cup Champions, are trying to find an answer to the lockdown team play preached by Washington's former coach Barry Trotz. Trotz has the Islanders humming, scoring about three-and-a-half goals per game while giving up a stingy sub-two-goals per game. In the playoffs, the Isles lead the NHL in goal differential with +12.

Alex Ovechkin has finally woken up and now has points in each of his last two contests. So there's that. He's been his usual Playoff Hits machine all along though, posting another seven on Sunday and 17 in the series. But it's a series that may only last one more game. The Isles have allowed just six goals during their four-game winning streak, and just 12 goals overall during their 7-1 run.

Tom Wilson has come as advertised, second in the NHL with 33 postseason Hits (more on the fella who sits atop that fine list, coming up). He has three points in six games, has been seeing 20 minutes per game in each of his last two, and his PPTOI is 2:45 which is up from what he was getting in the regular season (as always) by nearly a full minute. But aside from those two, and maybe TJ Oshie in the first game, that's it for the Caps. That's everyone who has really done anything (defenseman John Carlson, four assists, has an ugly minus-8 in the series).

Braden Holtby, who will be a UFA this summer, had a strong game on Sunday but ultimate took the loss. He hasn't been great and is 1-5 in the postseason (I'm counting OTL as a loss here), with a 0.907 SV%. He'll be 31 next month and with a Cup under his belt, three 40-win seasons and five 30-win seasons under his belt, my guess is that he'll get the biggest contract of the UFA goalies. Probably six years, probably $8M AAV or thereabouts – and that's with me discounting $2M AAV due to the salary cap freeze and pandemic impact. But between him, Cam Talbot, Jacob Markstrom and Robin Lehner – my pick is for Holtby to be the guy who disappoints the most. I almost feel sorry for the poor GM who signs him, but you reap what you sow.

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Anthony Beauvillier is finally doing what we thought he could do in the NHL – put up big points. Seven points in seven games so far, on the heels of a season in which he was on pace for 47, which would have easily been his best to date. I can see big things from him next year. This kind of production – and Sunday was the first game in which he didn't post a point – is making his mark on Barry Trotz. He's going to be an even bigger part of the offense in 2020-21.

Ryan Pulock, six points in seven games – ditto for him, as what I said about Beauvillier.

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Joe Pavelski is 36 and has two years at an AAV of $7M. He's coming off his worst NHL season, managing just 31 points and 14 measly goals. But for one game at least – he was back. Three goals on Sunday including one with a dozen seconds left. He has yet to record his first playoff assist, but he has five goals now.

Rick Bowness' strategy when coaching the Stars: Play the hell out of their Big 3 defensemen. John Klingberg (three assists) played 32:19, Miro Heiskanen with an eye-popping 35:45, and Esa Lindell with 29:16. Meanwhile Andrej Sekera played just over 10 minutes, and Taylor Fedun barely stepped on the ice at all (6:42). No Calgary defenseman played more than 29 minutes.

It was a run-and-gun game between Dallas and Calgary, and Cam Talbot was strong once again. But not strong enough. He faced 62 shots on goal, stopping 57 of them and with each passing game he's upping his chances of landing a starting-goalie gig next year. In fact, I see him as the "runner-up" prize for teams going after Holtby…and whatever cheap contract they give to Talbot, he'll end up being the better signing. I can absolutely see that. Talbot's playoff numbers: 5-3, 2SO, 2.19 GAA, 0.933 SV%.

Sam Bennett is becoming a playoff wonder and is earning his paycheck in the postseason. Claude Lemieux, anyone? For a guy who had his career high five years ago as a rookie with 36 points, and hasn't touched 30 since, he's really bringing his game in the clutch. Last year he had five points in five playoff contests, and after his three-point effort Sunday he has seven points in eight games. That's good for second on the team. What's more is that he leads the NHL in Hits with 47. That's a huge – huge – lead over second-place Wilson, noted above. And for the last three games, Bennett has been seeing PP time. That's something that he hadn't really been seeing since early November! We'll have to keep this in mind for next year's playoff pool…

Tobias Rieder has three shorthanded goals in the postseason. The 27-year-old Rieder, who was pretty much left for dead by the Oilers after being called out by their CEO for underperforming, is doing what he can to earn that next contract.

I wish I knew what Johnny Hockey was doing differently this year compared to year's past. Instead of being a Top 5 NHL scorer, he's been just another 65-point guy and that's been bleeding into his playoff production. Meanwhile his linemate, Sean Monahan, is leading the Flames in scoring.

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Chicago found a way to finally stop the juggernaut freight train otherwise known as the Golden Knights. They simply time-warped Corey Crawford from 2015 and then let him save everything. I mean – Chicago didn't even show up to play. Vegas outshot them 49-25 (Chicago had one shot with the empty net goal), including 20-8 in the first period alone.

I'm not sure if you can expect Crawford to do that every game. And if the one game that Vegas loses in these entire playoffs is a game in which they outshot the other team 49-25, it doesn't sound very beatable.

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Still, I love what I am seeing from Kirby Dach, I still believe in Alex DeBrincat as a future superstar, and Dominik Kubalik has been a revelation. The Blackhawks need to secure goaltending and shore up their defense but otherwise they have a bright future. Dach is a player that I project will put up fantasy-worthy points in about five years, even if he's on the team throughout those five years. But his size and strength are assets in playoff hockey and I can see his production levels increase come the postseason.

Nicholas Roy is being given tons of PK time by Vegas. Not much for PP time, so I'm a little worried that he'll get pigeonholed, but he's been getting more and more PK time. That's good in the sense that he's earned the trust of his coach. As a fantasy owner, I just don't want him getting pigeonholed. One way to beat that is to put up numbers – and so far he's been doing just that. Nothing in the last three games, but points in each of his first four. He had three points in his last six regular season games. Interestingly enough he got his first (and only) full minute of PP time in the last regular season game that he played (March 9). The only time all year, in his entire career, that he saw a full minute of PP time… and he scored on that power play. I'm liking this youngster more and more.

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One game after getting pulled when he gave up four goals on 26 shots, Carter Hart bounced back in a big way by posting a 23-save shutout. Just the fact that he had to face only 23 shots sure helped, but he was there when needed and that's gotta be quite a confidence boost. Prior to being pulled, Hart had not allowed two goals in a game in his three prior postseason contests.

Scott Laughton is another youngster having a great playoff with five points in six games. He didn't do it in prior years the way Sam Bennett (last year) and Tom Wilson did, but I think of him the same way in terms of that checking-line guy who could do a little more if he could ever move higher up the lineup. He's cashing in without any PP time and he's coming off his most productive year yet as he was on his way to 45 points (pace over 82 games).

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In a move that caught me a bit off guard but probably shouldn't have, the Blues elected to start Jake Allen on Sunday. Allen seems to thrive once becoming the full-time backup. His numbers were far superior to Binnington's in the regular season. "Winnington" had backup-type numbers in his first season as the full-time starter. And that's what was projected of him all along as a prospect. We were scratching our heads last summer about how he was suddenly such a star NHL goalie when in fact his NHL future was in doubt just a few months earlier. Maybe he really is just a backup? Winless in the postseason with a 4.27 GAA and 0.862 SV% (I didn't know he was doing quite so poorly), Binnington gave way to Jake Allen. And, with absolutely no pressure on him now that he's a backup, Allen is actually showing what we thought we'd see three years ago. Next year is going to be very interesting if Allen can salvage this series for the Blues. Hell, I think this situation will be interesting regardless. I'd hate to be a prognosticator who has to predict how that will fall out. Oh wait! Shit…

On Sunday Allen was definitely better than Binnington's been. He stopped 39 of 41 shots to basically save the Blues' playoff hopes.

Jacob Markstrom was tested even more than that – facing 49 shots. His team in front of him has been giving up more shots with each game played – 27, 29, 31, 37 and now 49, albeit with those last two numbers including some OT action. The Blues are pushing harder with every period that passes.

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In case you didn't see the injury Saturday to Andrei Svechnikov, this is ugly. And they won't say how bad it is or even what it is, but you remember these in history (reminds me a little of Mogilny years ago) this could potentially be months – which would cut into next season…

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See you next Monday.

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