Welcome back to your monthly installment of Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, which, for new readers, is a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Here though, instead of there being three bowls of porridge I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating just how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), or how cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or how “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

Our focus this week is Aaron Ekblad, and Taylor Hall, and Reilly Smith. Pause here to think about who was too hot, who was too cold, and which of the three was just right, and then read on to find out if you went three for three on your guesses.

Aaron Ekblad

As an 18-year-old, and coming off being the number one overall pick in that season's draft, Ekblad posted 39 points, which, before Rasmus Dahlin triumphantly arrived on the scene in 2018-19, was the highest rookie output for any 18-year-old in 30 years! What did Ekblad do from there? Very little. Three seasons he ended up with between 36 and 38 points and he entered 2019-20 as a five-year veteran whom many poolies were concerned might follow a disappointing trajectory resembling that of another former #1 overall pick in Erik Johnson. Yet in 2019-20 Ekblad posted a career-best of 41 points, and in only 67 contests, for a 50 point full season scoring pace. Still, just 24, have the scoring floodgates started to open for Ekblad? Most likely not; but he has probably found his new normal.

Notably Ekblad's shooting percentage this season was only 3.4%, suggesting he should've had about five more goals than he did. Yet his SOG rate was almost identical to what it was in 2018-19 and 2017-18 when he scored 37 and 38 points and shot higher than his career average. And it's not like he was taking higher quality shots either, as his total SOG in the range of 0-30 feet were roughly equal to those taken from 31+ feet, which also happened to him in 2017-18. There's also the fact that Ekblad's SOG rate declined with each passing quarter for the 2019-20 campaign, culminating in only 51 SOG in his last 27 games. So although it would seem Ekblad should find his way to more goals (and, thus, points) next season in the normal course as his shooting percentage renormalizes, his overall metrics don't suggest a commensurate gain in points due to the similarity between his SOG and SOG type between this season and his prior two as well as his downward trend in totals SOGs by quarter for 2019-20.

When I covered Keith Yandle in this column a few months ago, I noted that Yandle's stats overall seemed better than they really were and that his ice time dropped like a stone as the season wore on. What didn't change though was Yandle's stranglehold on PP1 time. Even as he was putting up career-best numbers, Ekblad's PP Time per game was the lowest of his career. In fact, his average PP time per game has dropped in each of the past four seasons, to just 1:27 per game for 2019-20. Also, Yandle's vanishing minutes at even strength have not come to Ekblad, who saw his ice time dip below 23:00 per game for the first time since 2016-17. And looking at defensemen who, since 2010-11 saw 1:30 or less in PP Time per game, not only did none score at a rate higher than Ekblad's 50 point pace for this season, but the vast majority were in the 20-40 point range. 

On the plus side, Ekblad's offensive zone starting percentage has been creeping upward and was above 50% for the first time since 2016-17. But his IPP, which had been 32.5, 33.6, 38.9, and 38.7 in his prior four seasons (32.5 being 2018-19), skyrocketed to 45.1%. Also, the Panthers might be posed to lose one or two of their top-six forwards in Mike Hoffman and Evgeni Dadonov, which could mean a lower scoring offense and, in turn, fewer goals on which Ekblad could nab a point.

If Ekblad was older than 24 and Yandle was younger than 33, I'd think Ekblad could see his points decline. But I believe Florida likely realizes Ekblad is a #1 defenseman in the truest sense of the word. As such, I believe he'll get more PP time in 2020-21, on top of a shooting percentage that should climb back up. Yet Ekblad's IPP should drop and his SOG rate might be trending downward. Accordingly, this strikes me as an instance where there are as many factors suggesting points increasing as decreasing, such that in the end, the likely outcome will be a player's scoring staying roughly the same. For these reasons, my view is Ekblad was JUST RIGHT for 2020-21 and gets a 5.25 rating to suggest perhaps a slight dip in scoring due to the trickle-down effect of the Panthers offense as a whole not being as high-powered for 2020-21 due to the departure of one or even two members of their top six.

Taylor Hall

It seems a lot longer ago than 2017-18 that Hall scored at a 100 point pace on his way to the Hart trophy. Why? Because since then his scoring slipped a bit and then it cratered, as he managed just 52 points in 65 games (25 points in 30 games for NJ; 27 in 35 for Arizona) for 2019-20, for a full season pace of a mere 66 points. So should we expect a further decline, as Hall will be entering his 12th season as an NHLer? Or more of the same? Neither; instead, he should rebound to score at a 75-85 point pace.

If Hall opts to re-sign with Arizona, then referencing his first season as a Devil is important, as he only scored at a 60 point full season pace before surging to a 100 point pace the next season. So it might well be that he needs time to acclimate to a team. And lest there be a concern that Arizona isn't a high scoring team, neither were the Devils in 2016-17 upon Hall's arrival. In fact, New Jersey scored 180 goals that season, whereas Arizona potted 195 in 2019-20, and in only 70 games. As such, the ingredients are there for Hall to improve if he stays in Arizona, maybe not as much as from 2016-17 to 2017-18, but by a good amount.

Even if he moves to another team, there are still reasons for optimism. Although Hall's production wasn't stellar, his SOG output was superb, marking the second-best per game rate of his career next to only his 2017-18 MVP campaign. In fact, if we look at forwards who had both more ice time and more total SOG than Hall did this season, we get only Nathan MacKinnon, Patrick Kane, Alex Ovechkin, and Kyle Connor, among whom the lowest scoring rate was 0.99 per game.

Where we do see differences though, is in Hall's shooting percentage, which was 6.9% for the season, well lower than his previous career nadir of 8.4%. Granted, it was an inflated 14.0% in his MVP season; however, subtracting out that season and this one, his previous career average was 10.2%, meaning his shooting percentage this season was 30% lower than his norm, costing him at least a handful of goals he should've scored.

Looking at Hall's metrics, his IPP and offensive zone starting percentages were right in line with his norms; however, he had only 22.2% secondary assists, or well below his 36% average over his previous three seasons. What makes that figure even more surprising is his lower shooting percentage, which one would expect to lead to more secondary assists. So he was getting shorted goals, plus not even tallying secondary assists to compensate for the lower goal total. All that, plus a consistent IPP (over 72% for a remarkable fifth straight season), underscores that Hall's scoring was unsustainably low.

So in short, reports of Hall no longer being an elite fantasy forward are greatly exaggerated. Yes, he's not likely to climb back to the lofty heights of 2017-18; but he had a shooting percentage and secondary assists double whammy.  As such, Hall was TOO COLD for the 2019-20 s campaign. Yes, he's about to enter his twelfth season; however, he's only played 627 career regular-season games; so he has the veteran experience and skill of 12 seasons but the legs of a player who's only skated for eight. Consequently, I give Hall a rating of 1.75 and see him rebounding to 75-85 points for the 2020-21 campaign, and that range should not change based on where he signs since if he stays in Arizona he'll be acclimated, whereas if he goes elsewhere the offense should be more up-tempo, helping him score.

Reilly Smith

Yes, in his most recent two seasons Smith's production has fallen short of the 73 point scoring pace he had in 2017-18. Still, though, he's scored at 0.72 points per game pace in each of the last three seasons, which is something the likes of Sebastian Aho, Nikolaj Ehlers, Mike Hoffman, Patrik Laine and Elias Lindholm haven't done. So with Smith still only 29, we should count on more of the same, especially since his pace in 2019-20 was actually a bit better than it was in 2018-19? My guess is no, as I'm banking on him starting to falter.

Slowly but surely Smith is being deemphasized with respect to the Vegas offense. His 17:55 ice time per game in 2019-20 was identical to what he received in 2017-18; however, this season's 17:55 is deceiving, as he shed ice time with each quarter, from 18:22 in Q1, to 18:08 in Q2, to 17:30 in Q3, all the way down to 16:48 in seven Q4 contests that saw him score but two points. And even his 1:54 of PP time per game this season is misleading, as by Q4 he was down to 1:01 per contest. Moreover, while this happened, Alex Tuch who also plays right-wing was seeing more and more ice time per contest with each passing quarter, culminating in 15:41 per game in Q4 that also saw Tuch log more than double the PP Time per game as Smith. It looks as though Tuch's star is rising while Smith's is falling.

One seemingly positive metric for Smith is he scored at a 62 point pace despite only five points with the man advantage. One has to figure that has only one way to go, namely up, yes? Not so fast. Smith received the 139th most PP minutes of any NHL forward but tied for only 186th in PP scoring, which likely explains why he was ceding PP time to Tuch. So while it is true that Vegas doesn't play its PP1 forwards into the ground like some teams, Smith's days on that unit are likely done, making it less likely he sees a rebound in PPPts.

Additionally, although Smith's SOG rate for the season was on a par with what is was in his last two campaigns, his shooting percentage was inflated, at 16.0%, which is better than his career mark of 11.7% entering 2019-20. And it wasn't a case of him taking higher quality SOG, as his ratio of SOG from 0-30 feet versus those from 31+ feet was the lowest its been during his Vegas tenure.

And if we were looking for positive signs in luck metrics, we're not going to find them. For 2019-20 Smith's IPP and OZ% were his highest as a Knight, as was his secondary assist rate of 44%. The secondary assist rate is not encouraging in and of itself; but when coupled with his far higher than normal shooting percentage, it shows he lucked into both more goals and more assists. If merely one of these metrics was high but not the other, there might be less concern. The two both being elevated signifies lower scoring to come even in the normal course; and that would be if Smith was to see the same deployment in 2020-21, which, as noted above, probably won't occur.

Smith has had a nice run in Sin City, including this season's playoffs. But the team looks poised to deemphasize him, which in and of itself would be bad news but is even worse when looking at the overall picture, which is not a pretty one as shown above. For 2020-21, I'd look for Smith to drop to 50 points, with a better shot of falling below 50 than rising to 55. In one-year leagues, I'd avoid him, as his value won't justify his cost. In keepers, however, there's the fact he's going to be a UFA after 2021-22 and thus might end up being picked yet again in the upcoming expansion draft, in which case he may have renewed value. Still, that's far from a certainty; so if you have better options in a keeper, don't be afraid to just walk away from Smith this offseason, or try to deal him for nearly anything in return.

************

Questions for Mailbag column

It's never too early to get me questions for the next mailbag.  The sooner you send them, the more likely they are to be included and the deeper dive I can perform in answering them. To get questions to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.