Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also usually covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of Alex MacLean’s weekly Capped column.

As a reminder, to access the actual forum thread on which the question click on the “Topic” for each question.

Topic #1 – In a 12 team keeper league which has 17 rostered players (stats for 8F, 3D, 1G count), and scoring for skaters being two points for a forward goal, three points for a defenseman goal, one point for a forward assist and two points for a defenseman assist, which five forwards and two defensemen should be retained (offseason trading not allowed):

F- Brayden Point, Artemi Panarin, Blake Wheeler, Taylor Hall, Teuvo Teravainen, Jakub Vrana, Brayden Schenn, Nicklas Backstrom, William Karlsson, Nazem Kadri, Anthony Beauvillier

D- Miro Heiskanen, Zach Werenski, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Erik Gustafsson, Shayne Gostisbehere

Let's start with defensemen, as that's straightforward – Heiskanen and Werenski. We're seeing from the playoffs that Heiskanen has arrived big time and I don't envision a universe in which he regresses. And in a league with a bonus for defenseman goals, Werenski also is a must keep, as focusing on the first four seasons of defensemen who played from 2000-01 onward, Weresnki's points per game is a solid tenth, and his goals per game rank an even better fourth.

At forward, things are murkier. Karlsson and Kadri are clear drops. Beauvillier has shown flashes of greatness in the playoffs and has always been considered a sniper in the making; but he's had hot streaks before (eight points in four games, and a separate 13 points in 12 games in 2019-20) and if he stays on new York's second line it's one which starts barely 40% of its shifts in the OZ, making it difficult to be a scorer. Schenn is solid but in points only he's a notch below Backstrom and Teravainen, especially with Vladimir Tarasenko's uncertain return date.

So that leaves seven players for five spots. Point and Panarin are must keeps, as Panarin is an elite player and Point is showing his true colors in the playoffs. I covered Hall last week in my Goldipucks column, where evidence suggested he should bounce back to the 75-85 point range. He's a bit less valuable in leagues without positional requirements, but I still think he makes the cut. Give me Wheeler too, as if you ignore his slow start he played point per game hockey for well more than half the season and he is locked into the top line. And as avid readers of my column know, if we look at players who, like Wheeler, had 91+ points twice at age 30+ nearly all had 90+ points at least once again before all was said and done.

So that leaves one spot for Vrana, Backstrom, and Teravainen. Vrana could be the best of the group within a few seasons, but likely not in 2020-21. Backstrom is steady, but his 80-85+ point days appear to be over. Teravainen probably will score the most in 2020-21, yet he's not a big name like Backstrom, so perhaps he's a redraft? If you want no downside, keep Backstrom and try to redraft TT and/or Vrana. If you just want the likely best player, I'd say keep TT.

Topic #2 – In a league that counts G, A, PTS, +/-, PIM, PPG, and PPA, who is the better keeper: Matthew Tkachuk or Kyle Connor?

How valuable has Tkachuk been in leagues that count PIM? Over his four seasons in the league he has accumulated the eighth-most PIM among all forwards, but at the same time has 235 points. Only Evgeni Malkin and Brad Marchand both had more PIM and PTS than Tkachuk over that four-season stretch; and beyond them, you have to go all the way down to Jamie Benn, who had cumulatively 73 PIM less than Tkachuk during the stretch, to find the forward with the next highest PIM total who had more cumulative points than Tkachuk. And if we focus on the last three seasons only, Tkachuk still had the ninth most PIM among all NHLers but his 26 PPGs were equal to or more than each of the top 28 forwards in PIM! Oh, and did I mention he doesn't turn 23 until December!

While there's a lot to rightfully gush about when it comes to Tkachuk, let's not overlook the accomplishments of Connor, who still hasn't really had his "magical fourth season" and is only a year older than Tkachuk. Connor's 103 total goals over the past three seasons rank seventh among all forwards; and he's one of just seven NHLers to have tallied 31+ goals in each of the past three seasons. What do the other six 31+ plus scorers all have in common? At least one season of 1.14 points per game or higher, with five of the six have at least one season of 1.35 points per game or higher. And Connor's 27 PPGs over the past three campaigns best Tkachuk's total by one. Also, Connor's PIM total had been low, until 2019-20, when he averaged nearly one per every other game.

One key is whereas other Calgary forwards saw their totals shrink in 2019-20, Tkachuk kept his numbers rock solid. Even still, it's not clear whether he has 90+ point potential, whereas Connor seemingly does. A lot of that has to do with PPPts, as Connor appears to have more room to see his PP scoring increase organically, whereas Tkachuk's PPPts have been pretty high – and perhaps close to maxed out – for a while. This really is a squeaker; but I'm taking Connor by a hair, given his player comparables, realistic room for still more scoring gains, and perhaps being able to give a team half Tkachuk's PIM output, which, as Tkachuk matures, could shrink. 

Topic #3 – In a cap league with goals worth slightly more than assists and Frederik Anderson, Morgan Rielly, Quinn Hughes, Connor McDavid, Andrei Svechnikov, Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor already being kept, who should the final keeper be: Mark Stone, Vladimir Tarasenko, Nick Suzuki, or Kaapo Kakko?

As noted in the forum thread, one key here is whether we're talking about cap hit or actual salary, as in two of the last three seasons of his deal Tarasenko will only make $5.5M despite a $7.5M annual cap hit. That is a good bit lower than Stone, who has a $9.5M annual cap hit and actual salaries of $11M+ in three of the next four seasons. Thus, if Tarasenko's health wasn't in question, he'd likely be the easy choice in cap/salary leagues.

I'm not bullish on Kaako, since as I noted in my most recent mailbag 36 of his 66 games during 2019-20 saw him with zero or one SOG and his 5×5 team shooting percentage was 11th worst among all forwards who played 40+ games. Suzuki, who, like Kakko, is on an ELC for two more seasons, would be an easy choice for me over Kaako.

The question is whether Suzuki is the guy to keep over the rock-solid but very expensive Stone or the slightly cheaper but health uncertain Tarasenko. Although I like Stone's consistency a lot, I think we've seen the best we'll get from him given his previous outputs and skating for a Vegas team that doesn't play its stars into the ground. Meanwhile, Tarasenko is all but assured to miss time in 2020-21 and might not be the same player again. What's also impressive about Suzuki is he did what he did under Claude Julien, who, although not known as a coach conducive to offense, does play his trusted guys a lot, as we need only hearken back to his days coaching in Boston to have witnessed that. Given his cheap price for the next two seasons plus the likelihood he's only getting better, I'm going with Suzuki here over Stone and Tarasenko.

Topic #4 – What might Ilya Sorokin's future actually hold, especially given the at times superb performance of Semyon Varlamov this postseason?

There is a lot of hype surrounding Sorokin; and I'm not one to say it's unjustified given his numbers and what we've witnessed in limited action from Igor Shesterkin, the goalie to whom we've seen the most comparisons when it comes to Sorokin. But placing aside the fact that Sorokin has never played in an NHL game and goalie is a position where many a highly touted prospect has failed to meet expectations, there's also the reality of the situation he's entering.

In 20 full seasons as an NHL head coach, Barry Trotz has four times had one of his netminders start 68+ games in a season; however, eight times he's had a netminder start 52 or fewer games. And so far during his tenure on Long Island, he's shown that he seems to be favoring a 1A/1B type of system, versus a clear cut starter, what with the team leader in starts making 43 in the 2018-19 season and 39 (of 68) this season. There's also the fact that Semyon Varlamov is signed for a pretty sizable contract through 2022-23.

Then again, Sorokin is inked to a one-year deal; so the Islanders likely will want to see what he's made of in order to determine how to proceed. As such, Varlamov, likely won't be starting a higher percentage of games in 2020-21. Moreover, Varlamov has not been a great goalie when he's had solid back-up breathing down his neck – case in point being the 2018-19 season with Colorado when he was outmatched by Philip Grubauer notwithstanding Varlamov playing for a new contract.

Could Sorokin play a season and then be lured back to the KHL? It's possible. Then again, he knew what he was getting into signing with the Islanders, so chances are he's here for the long haul. If I owned Sorokin, I'd hold onto him and hope that with each passing season he plays more and more and by 2022-23 he's the 1A to Valramov's 1B. But I wouldn't deal for Sorokin, as I believe the price he'd command would not be met via a soon enough return on investment.

Topic #5 – How would these seven d-men rank in a G, A, PTS, +/-, PIM, PPG, PPA league over the next 1-2 years: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Vince Dunn, Rasmus Andersson, Devon Toews, Rasmus Ristolainen, Erik Gustafsson, Juuso Valimaki?

I'm putting Andersson and Valimaki at the bottom, as I think they're not cut from the cloth of a scoring d-man. I'd be surprised if either one bests 35 points in either 2020-21 or 2021-22. For next worst I'm going with Toews, who was given ample opportunity to shine but failed to capitalize. For 2019-20, Ryan Pulock might finally be unleased, or if not him then Noah Dobson.

Once we get past those bottom three it gets murkier. Phoenix is playing OEL a lot and seems content for him to be "the guy" despite Jakub Chychrun waiting in the wings. For that reason, OEL would be ranked first, although under perfect circumstances any or all Dunn, Gustafsson, or Ristolainen, each of whom has variables affecting his near term future, could do better.

Gustafsson is only one season removed from posting 60 points, but that seems a lot longer ago than just one campaign after his big step down in 2020-21. Him having posted 60 points would normally leave me not concerned about his ability to bounce back, but that was before we saw the implosion of Shayne Gostibehere, and Gustafsson is a year older than Ghost. Dunn has given poolies glimpses of play suggesting he could be an option for blueline offense; but for that to occur Alex Pietrangelo would have to walk and top offensive deployment would need to go to Dunn over Justin Faulk or Colton Parayko. That's a decent number of ifs. Then there's Risto, who has been turned into very much a second banana by upstart Rasmus Dahlin. Moreover, Risto's strength lies in leagues counting SOG, HIT and BLK, none of which are relevant here.

So how do I order these three, after OEL? I put Gustafsson second, as even though he struggled he did score 24 points in his last 47 games for better than a point per every other game, which is likely more than Risto or Dunn would produce if their circumstances stay the same. Wherever he signs, Gustafsson also will likely get a lot of PP Time, giving him an edge in PPG and PPA. I'll put him second and then go with Risto third as his downside is likely more than Dunn's. So the full list, in order, is OEL, Gustafsson, Ristolainen, Dunn, Toews, Andersson, and Valimaki.

Topic #6 – What does the future hold for Cal Petersen?

We don't have a large sample size on Petersen, whose NHL career has consisted of 19 total games played over the course of the last two seasons. But he has managed to post a winning record and save percentage over .922 in both campaigns for what was one of the worst teams in the league on paper. Beyond that, by the time the plug was pulled on the 2019-20 seasons, LA appeared to be playing Petersen as much as Jonathan Quick, their well-paid goalie who had led them to two Stanley Cups.

We can't learn much from his limited number of games played, although him sporting a save percentage of 0.922 or higher in both his first two seasons does allow for some comparison. Since 2000-01, just four other netminders had a save percentage that high in each of their first two seasons and played in both at least as many total games as Petersen and more than five games in each season. They are Braden Holtby, Matt Murray, Calvin Pickard, and Cam Talbot. So one goalie who turned out great (Holtby), one who started great but struggled of late (Murray), another who has had an up and down career (Talbot), and one who never panned out (Pickard). But let's not overlook that Holtby and Murray (as well as Pickard) were much younger when then debuted, whereas Peterson is more comparable in age Talbot when he was a second-year player. So all in all, this data isn't very encouraging, although of course, it's a small sample size.

Also, although LA has struggled recently, it has a very good corps of prospects in the pipeline, such that there is hope the team will be better in the not too distant future. In other words, they should vastly improve right around when Jonathan Quick's deal would be ending. Seemingly good news for Petersen.

Petersen likely has played well enough such that LA will consider him it’s back-up and won't sign another netminder. As such, if he plays well he should only earn more playing time, with the chance that he'll be a 1B as early as this season and starter even before 2023-24 when Quick's deal has expired and LA should be vastly improved. So if poolies are willing to play the long game with Petersen, they might be nicely rewarded. Then again, he might be the second coming of Talbot and never amount to a top fantasy netminder. If he can be obtained cheaply and kept for a few seasons, it makes for a sensible gamble. But the time to get him would be now, as if he keeps doing what he's done in his early career then he'll be tougher to obtain for a decent price even in the near term despite him playing for the still rebuilding Kings.

Topic #7 – In a points only keeper, how do these defensemen rank: Victor Hedman, Roman Josi, Torey Krug, Tyson Barrie, Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson?

I like Josi over Hedman for the top spot. Josi's season was superb and, more importantly, did not have factors suggesting it was an outlier. For one, Josi had points in 46 of his 69 games; and besides John Carlson, no other defenseman had points in more than 38. Moreover, he gets all the ice time overall and on the PP he can handle. His shooting percentage was comparable to his career average, his SOG rate wasn't abnormally high, and his IPP, though seemingly elevated at 58%, has been rising each of the last three seasons and, at 58%, is reasonable given the lack of scoring talent among Nashville forwards, leading to Josi being able to get points on a higher percentage of goals versus a normal #1 d-man. As for Hedman, he's definitely no slouch; but Mikael Sergachev is an up and comer who might eat into Hedman's PP Time. Plus, Tampa Bay forwards are high scorers, meaning more scoring but – unlike Josi – less opportunity for Hedman to get points on their goals. It's close between the two, but Josi gets the nod.

Krug and Barrie are somewhat unknowns in that both are UFAs more likely than not to sign elsewhere. But even if they do, they'll be paid enough to guarantee they'll get all the chances they need to boost their team's offense from the blueline. Krug's 0.80 points per game are the fourth-best among d-men who've played each of the past three seasons. He also had a 71% OZ% in 2019-20, or 13.5% higher than the next highest among these d-men (Barrie's 57.5%).

Speaking of Barrie, his totals for 2019-20 seem like a step down from the 0.70 points per game he had over the prior three seasons; but if we focus on solely the 47 games he played under Sheldon Keefe, his output was 32 points, or just under that 0.70 average. Both he and Krug are 29 and should still have a few good seasons left before they start to decline. If I had to choose which to rank higher, I'd go with Krug, as he is a bit more of a one-dimensional player, such that wherever he ended up signing he'll be tasked with providing blueline offense, whereas Barrie might be called upon to play slightly tougher (i.e., lower OZ%) minutes.

Regarding Burns and Karlsson, all I can say is how the mighty have fallen. Burns' age and miles have caught up to him, as have injuries to Karlsson. And rather than each serving to ignite the other, they've each fared worse as teammates. Don't get me wrong – I think both are likely to get 50 points in maybe 2020-21 and 2021-22, with a shot at 55; but that simply is not good enough to make the top four. As for who to put ahead of the other, I'd say Karlsson over Burns, as if Karlsson can stay healthy I think he has more left in the tank.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The mailbag is emptier than usual, which means it's a great time to send me your fantasy hockey questions. So if you have a question about your fantasy team or fantasy hockey in general, send it to me and I'll be able to answer here it in just a couple of weeks. To get questions to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.