Ramblings: Tampa lifts the Cup; thoughts on Petry; Stewart retirement; Hägg extended; Pirri and Sikura traded – September 29
Michael Clifford
2020-09-29
Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final had much the pace of most of the series: slow but controlled by Tampa Bay. To wit: at the mid-point of the second period, the game had seen 20 total shots on goal, with just seven from Dallas Stars sticks. That control led to a 2-0 lead for the Bolts at that point, with Brayden Point (his playoff-leading 14th) and Blake Coleman (his fifth) giving the team the 2-0 lead.
Andrei Vasilevskiy shut the door the rest of the way, making 22 saves for the shutout – his first of the playoffs, believe it or not – to give Tampa their second franchise Stanley Cup. Victor Hedman played his usual 25 minutes, posting an assist and five shots.
Hedman, incidentally, won the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoff MVP. Add it to the hardware with the Cup and Norris. I don’t have a real problem with Hedman taking it, though my vote would go to Kucherov. Not that it’s a poor choice; Hedman probably would be second on my list. I just think Kucherov is the engine of the offence and played 22 minutes a night while suiting up every game.
It was a great playoffs for the pair of pickups in Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman. Coleman had five goals and 13 points and while Goodrow didn’t rack up points, the pair were on the ice for just two goals against on the penalty kill in their 26 games. That’s over 60 minutes of ice time for each, and the shots against numbers kind of tell the same tale. Excellent penalty killing is an important ingredient for any successful team.
A great run by Dallas. Even though I was pulling for Tampa, it was nice to see that core get rewarded with a Cup run after that team years back when Seguin was injured and they were a contender. I think injuries finally caught up with them, which is a shame. But Heiskanen was phenomenal throughout and really cemented himself as an upper-tier blue liner in the league and young guys like Hintz, Gurianov, and Kiviranta showed flashes of what’s yet to come. They have some cap space this summer, too.
More than anyone as far as performances are concerned, this was Brayden Point showing everyone just how good he is, and how good he will be for years.
I'll have more on the Finals, and the playoffs in general, in my next Ramblings.
*
Dobber gave his thoughts on the Jeff Petry extension in his Ramblings yesterday so I won't go too deep into it. As the resident Habs fan among our editors, I thought I would give my two cents.
In a nutshell, I like the extension. Like Dobber, I have concerns about what he'll be like at 36 and 37 years old, but I have more faith in a good puck-mover aging gracefully on the blue line through his mid-30s (I'm thinking of guys like Giordano and Brian Campbell) than players who rely on stellar defence for value (I'm thinking of guys like Tanev and Vlasic). Now, Petry does both, and he does hit a lot. Knowing that, it's fair to wonder how long he'll hold up. Another year? Another three? Five? I'm not sure. All I know is I feel better about him still having value three years from now than I do a guy like Tanev, even with Tanev being a couple years younger.
The problem, outside of the nutshell, is there is a lot of money to aging blue liners. Weber, Petry, and Alzner are all at least 32 years old and will count nearly $18 million against the cap this year and over $18 million next year (less whatever is buried from Alzner once he's sent to the AHL). I've talked at length about how much I don't like either of the Chiarot or Edmundson contracts. In other words, the Habs, in my opinion, have a lot of money and years tied up in defencemen that are not worth it, are old, or both. The blue line they had in 2019-20 will be, more or less, the blue line they have for the next two years (only probably worse if they play Edmundson over Mete).
From a fantasy perspective, as I mentioned, Petry hits a lot – four straight seasons with at least 160. That's what makes him so valuable for multi-cat leagues. I wonder if that doesn't slow down as he ages and tries to save his body a bit. Shea Weber averaged 176 hits/82 games over his final three seasons in Nashville. That's slowed down to about 160/82 games over his last couple years in Montreal as he's lost ice time and been injured. Not huge, but 10 percent is 10 percent. Something to keep in mind.
*
Chris Stewart retired on Sunday.
It's a weird guy to have a fascination with but for those who weren't into fantasy hockey back then, Stewart was an absolute fantasy stud his first couple years in the league. His 82-game paces over his first three seasons (2008-2011) are as follows:
- 6 goals
- 5 assists
- 9 penalty minutes
- 8 hits
- 4 shots
- 1 power-play points
There's a reason he was highly coveted early in his career.
It was also that time that I started writing about fantasy hockey. My first year of writing was 2011-12, and obviously Stewart was one of the top multi-cat guys to know and own. He did have a couple good years in St. Louis, but once he was traded to Buffalo in 2013-14, his play started to fall off, and he bounced around the league for six years after that, before finally retiring a couple days ago. But Stewart was always a guy that I coveted in fantasy hockey starting out and he's a guy I'll always have a special place for because of that.
Best of luck to Chris and his family in whatever comes next.
*
The Flyers upped Robert Hagg for two more years at $1.6 million per season.
Hagg is a really interesting player from a real-life perspective. He's a brutally physical defencemen but that didn't show in good defensive metrics early in his career. His 19-20 season at Evolving Hockey, though, was a big improvement in his own zone (in this case, a big improvement means being average). There are still issues at both ends of the ice, however.
Hagg is 25 years old. It's no longer "he's a growing prospect" and more "he needs to prove he belongs."
Fantasy-wise, he'll be stuck behind Provorov and Niskanen for at least another year. That means I wouldn't expect a big uptick in any category in the short-term, other than through sheer games played. I would say this also means that Shayne Gostisbehere will be traded, lest they scratch one of Ghost/Hagg every game or push one to his off-side.
*
Brandon Pirri was traded to Chicago for Dylan Sikura. Pirri, remember, was drafted by Chicago and spent a lot of time on the farm for them before being traded to Florida (and then elsewhere).
Sikura never really found his footing with the 'Hawks, bouncing between the AHL and NHL the last couple of years. He's also four years younger than Pirri.
I don't want to get too excited here. I do think Pirri is a useful NHLer in the right role i.e. not one with much defensive responsibility (Diet Laine). It's not that he's terrible defensively – I think that point is overblown – but I think he's better suited as a trigger-man than anything else. If Pirri can get useful ice time, he can score, and score a lot. Since 2013, here are his goals/60 comparables at 5-on-5, again from Evolving Hockey:
Anyone who can score at a similar rate to Leon Draisaitl for 3000 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time (about three full seasons' worth) deserves a shot in the NHL.
Oh, by the way, in that span, he was in the 90th percentile for shot rate among forwards.
Sikura going to Vegas just kills his value. Eight of their top-9 forwards are already contract for next year and they still have either Cousins or Stephenson (or both) to sign, plus Cody Glass and Peyton Krebs in the wings. There are a lot of very good forwards so it's hard to see Sikura anywhere in the top-9 for long stretches of time. Maybe he has value if there are some injuries or really impresses. But it would take a lot.
For fantasy, this trade is about Pirri. He had no chance of cracking the Vegas lineup for long stretches. He does have a chance of cracking the Chicago lineup. It's a matter of where they slot him.
*
Travis Yost at TSN wrote about Patrik Laine. A lot of it isn't surprising – his offensive impact is elite, his defensive impact is not – but it raises a good question: if Laine is indeed to be traded, what team should trade for him?
It's not as simple as to say "anyone with cap space." As Yost outlines, Laine has strengths that need to be amplified and deficiencies that need to be covered. I'm sure he'd look great on Patrick Kane's wing, but it's a matter of diminishing returns. Would the increase in scoring on a line that is already elite offensively be offset (or more-than-offset) by poor defence? On the flipside, as Yost mentions, what if he were to go to Columbus, where they can hide his defensive shortcomings while using him with good offensive players like Dubois, Atkinson, and Bjorkstrand?
Whatever happens, just give me chaos.