Ramblings – Thoughts on Dallas, Tampa, Petry, Matheson, Ryan, Gagner and more (Sept. 28)

Dobber

2020-09-28

First thing's first. I relaunched DobberProspects.com a couple of days ago! Now go on and enjoy a cleaner, slicker site in time for the upcoming 2020 NHL Entry Draft. Still a few tweaks to go, and a couple of cool widgets I want to ad, but much of it is done. And please turn off your ad blocker. Any popup issues I may have had in the past are either gone, or easily squashed if any return.

The Fantasy Prospects Report will be re-released the day after the Stanley Cup is won. I was hoping to tell you today that it's available now, but Corey Perry decided he was 27 again. Anyway, this re-release comes free if you already bought it (just re-download the item). It has 40 player profile updates, six new profiles added, one new draftee profile added and of course Cam Robinson's Mock Draft. If Tampa wins Monday night, then look for this late Tuesday. If not – Thursday, it is.

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My favorite time of year is the start of October because of all the fantasy drafts and the buzz in the air about the, er, start… of the season. It would be irony if Dallas pushes this to a seventh game Wednesday and it goes into a second overtime period – crossing the midnight threshold – so that the season actually finishes in October.

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It's really amazing what Rick Bowness is getting out of these Stars. I mean…Jamie Benn was done. He really was done. A 45-point former superstar who can still chip in the intangibles. But now suddenly he's that point-per-game superstar again. At least, before the Final (he has just one point in the Final). But other players are stepping in, now that Benn has brought them there.

Corey Perry? Yes, Corey Perry! The same Perry who was getting the sheltered treatment, complete with weak quality of competition, offensive zone starts and 46.2% of the available power-play ice time in the regular season. And with all that, he managed just five goals and 21 points all season long, with the second-worst relative Corsi numbers on the team (so he was giving up too many chances along with not scoring). But, now in the playoffs he has matched those five goals, with three of them coming in the last two games of a Cup Final.

What Perry has done in the Stanley Cup Final has probably ensured that he gets himself a contract for next year. Honestly, before this I didn't think he was getting one (in fact I was pretty certain). He'd have landed a training camp tryout somewhere, but probably not a one-way deal. But this past week, with all the marbles on the line, he's stepped up huge. Saturday he had nine shots on goal! A GM out there, probably Dallas, will see if they can get him at a similar contract hit as this year's $1.5M. I think he can be a reasonable agitator on the third line who can (obviously) help in the playoffs, as long as the coach is careful with how he distributes his minutes.

Dallas scoring leaders in the Final (five games):

Tyler Seguin, John Klingberg and Joe Pavelski – five points

Alexander Radulov and Miro Heiskanen – four points

Mattias Janmark and Perry – three points

Playoff rookie heroes Joel Kiviranta and Denis Gurianov have one point and zero points respectively. But Gurianov appears on the another chart for Dallas – check this out.

Dallas Hits leaders in the Final:

Jamie Oleksiak – 25 Hits

Denis Gurianov – 24 Hits (!)

Esa Lindell – 18 Hits

Funny enough, Perry has just nine Hits, third lowest on the team. Oleksiak also leads the team in BLKS with 24, with Lindell second at 10. Oleksiak – an unsung beast here.

One last interesting Dallas stat – the giveaway/takeaway ratio:

Lindell and Pavelski – 2.33 (three Gv, seven Tk)

Jason Dickenson – 1.00 (one Gv, one Tk)

Andrew Cogliano – 0.7 (four Gv, three Tk)

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And speaking of getting yourself another contract, Kevin Shattenkirk has been doing his part to show that he can hold his own on the third pairing with second-unit PP time. Much like with Perry, Shattenkirk was given the coach-sheltering treatment with his minutes. Unlike Perry, Shattenkirk had done enough in the regular season to earn another contract and probably a raise, putting up 34 points (albeit mostly in the first third of the season). But with 13 points in the postseason he may have landed himself a multi-year deal and a small raise. Which he'll take, because he knows he's not getting any younger and that his place on a roster is no longer a given.

Tampa scoring leaders in the Final:

Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point – seven points

Victor Hedman – six points

Ondrej Palat – five points

And then we get to Tyler Johnson. Since his 72-point season back in in 2015, he hasn't reached 51 points. And since his 17-point playoffs in 2016 he hasn't reached nine points in a postseason. In 24 games he has just seven points. Johnson turned 30 a couple months ago so he's at the tale-end of his supposed prime. I can't recall a player who teased us like this before. Jonathan Cheechoo compares a little, but Cheechoo at least gave us a 69-point season after his 93-point year. Johnson only teased us a year later with a huge postseason that made us all think that he would follow it up with a season bigger than 2014-15. Still four more years to go in his contract at a $5M cap hit.

Tampa Hits leaders in the Final:

Tampa is really laying into Dallas with the body. Check out their Hits leaders for the series in comparison:

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Barclay Goodrow – 34 Hits

Blake Coleman – 33 Hits

Anthony Cirelli – 29 Hits

Ryan McDonagh – 27 Hits

Four players have more Hits than the top guy on the Dallas list.

And we'll do this for Tampa, too – the giveaway/takeaway ratio:

Point and Yanni Gourde – 3.00 (one Gv, three Tk)

Cirelli and Mikhail Sergachev – 1.50 (two Gv, three Tk)

Palat, Coleman and Goodrow – 1.00 (Palat is actually five and five, Coleman three and three, Goodrow two and two)

Kucherov has seven giveaways and he actually has zero takeaways. Hedman has nine giveaways and three takeaways. The leader on both teams in the Final for giveaways? Dallas rookie Miro Heiskanen, and it's by a mile. He has 18 giveaways!

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While Twitter was frothing at the mouth about how bad a player Dobber Darling Mike Matheson is, I reeled out a series of Tweets on the subject of the Matheson-Patric Hornqvist trade:

I think my Justin Schultz comparable was apt, situation-wise. Talent-wise, I think very highly of Matheson's offensive upside and I think he's better all-around player. But he needs to be used properly to bring it out of him. If Kris Letang decides to become an iron man (yeah right), then we may never get to see it. But if Letang can miss a big chunk of the season (not a far-fetched idea), then the Penguins are forced to use Matheson on the No.1 PP unit. And then we'll get to see what he can do. If you think Schultz caught you off guard in 2016-17, wait until you see what Matheson would do.

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Sam Gagner has had good possession-driving numbers for two years now (using Rel CF%), in limited action. He's good placeholder in Detroit until they can start filling roster spots with their prospects. I don't know why he was railroaded or blackballed out of the NHL, but I'm glad he has a legit NHL contract again. I get that he's not gonna put up the points we thought he would, but he deserves to be in the NHL.

Remember his eight-point game? Hard to believe his career-high for a season is 50…

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That Jeff Petry extension is pretty interesting. I think it's a good signing if he were entering UFA this offseason. Because I think he has another two good years in him. Then again, if he were entering this summer as UFA he's command a little more (but only a little, given the climate). But his contract is up in 2021, and that's when his extension starts. So I'm cringing a little. I hope the Habs get good seasons from him three out of those four years – that makes it worthy. But I have a feeling that they're only going to get one from him, once that new contract starts.

GM Marc Bergevin is shoring up his blue line, which is smart. We've seen how teams struggle when they try to play without the right mix of veterans, youngsters, toughness, skill and size. Shea Weber, Petry, top prospect Alexander Romanov and Joel Edmundson are all there for at least the next four seasons. Victor Mete, too. I think that's potentially a good first five. Beyond that, Cale Fleury, Josh Brook and Noah Juulsen will try to make their case.

I wonder if Carey Price's fantasy output dramatically increases next season. With Edmundson and Romanov, plus Jake Allen as the backup to give Price the breaks he needs…

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I think Bobby Ryan signs a modest contract with a new team, maybe a two-year deal for something low around the $2M mark. And I think he posts his highest point total since 2016. I liked what I saw when he returned in February from his rehab. Provided the pandemic didn't bring him down and he stays positive, I think the 33-year-old can contribute. I'm figuring something around 40 or 45 points, depending on the team.

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See you next Monday.

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