Normally, we'd be on the cusp of opening day for the 2020-21 campaign. But instead, things are vastly different, and we've just begun the offseason! Of course, there is no offseason for the mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions while also giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it to me. The earlier you send me a question the more likely it is to be included, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply. And as shown this week, you can feel free to send multiple questions, as – space permitting – I can answer more than one from the same person.

 

Question #1 (from David)

I'm in a 10-team keeper, salary league. I’ve decided on which defensemen and goaltenders I'm going to retain but am struggling with my forwards. The eight skater categories are G, A, PTS, +/-, SOG, STP, HIT+BLK, and GWG. Generally teams have 4LW, 4C, and 4RW. I can only keep nine of these following 15 forwards (i.e., I need to cut six) at a target salary of $60-63M. I’ve listed the expected positional eligibility next to each player as well as his 2020-21 salary. Who are your six cuts and why?

 

Jordan Eberle – C, RW – $5.5M

Ryan O’Reilly – C – $7.5M

Rickard Rakell – C, LW, RW – $3.79M

Kyle Connor – LW – $7.14M

Anders Lee – LW – $7M

Teuvo Teravainen – LW, RW – $5.4M

Pavel Buchnevich – RW – $3.25M

Brendan Gallagher – RW – $3.75M

Nicklas Backstrom – C – $9.2M

Ryan Strome – C, RW – TBD (RFA)

John Tavares – C – $11M

Patrick Kane – RW – $10.5M

Tomas Hertl – C, LW – $5.62M

Oliver Bjorkstrand – LW, RW – $2.5M

Mark Stone – RW – $9.5M

 

What David did not make clear is if the $60-63M applied solely to the nine retained forwards, or to the twelve forwards that he'll roster, or to even more players, including perhaps rearguards and/or goalies. My guess is it applies – at a minimum – to more than the nine to be retained forwards, so in answering the question I'll operate under that assumption.

Looking at the list, four cuts that stand out are Eberle, Rakell, Lee and Hertl. Eberle simply isn't good enough, plus is not even a cap bargain. I actually like Rakell and Hertl to produce better this season than last; however; I think you have better options among your other players. Lee is a 50-55 point player who had one very good but not repeatable season. Yes, he hits, shoots and scores goals; but he's not quite solid enough to keep at $7M. Beyond those four, you have two $10M+ plus guys, and if I were you I'd keep only one. And to me that one is Kane. Tavares is slightly younger and will give you a bit more in Hits and Blocks; Kane is a scoring machine though, whom I don't see slowing down for several more seasons. So Tavares is a cap casualty. My last cut is Stone, who's only single position eligible and is a 75-80 point player on a team that traditionally does not play its stars into the ground. Good luck!

 

Question #2 (from Gerry)

I'm in a 10 Team H2H League with starting line-ups consisting of 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 2W, 1F, 5D, 2G, and each team also having seven bench spots. Skater categories are: G, A, P, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG, and HIT. Goalie categories are: W, GAA, SV%, & SHO.

 

My roster at the end of last season consisted of the following players at their listed position(s):

C – Auston Matthews, Kevin Hayes, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Connor McDavid

C/LW – Pavel Zacha, Scott Laughton, Leon Draisaitl

C/RW – Mikael Backlund

C/LW/RW – William Nylander

LW – Nick Ritchie, Kyle Connor

LW/RW – Andrei Svechnikov, Ryan Hartman

RW – Pavel Buchnevich, Jordan Eberle, Josh Anderson

D – Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, Duncan Keith, Jacob Trouba, Vince Dunn, Mikhail Sergachev, Cale Makar, Dougie Hamilton

G – Carter Hart, Semyon Varlamov, Braden Holtby.

 

I really like my roster, but we can only keep eight players going into next season. There are at least 11 I would dearly love to keep. Can you help me pick the best eight?

 

You didn't mention whether offseason trading is allowed, so I'll presume it isn't. If it is, however, then at least some of the players you don't end up retaining can be put on the trade block to try and help you land draft picks.

In your league, wingers and defensemen hold the greatest importance in that 11 (or 12) players on your active roster of 16 will be either a winger or a d-man. For that reason, I don't think Kuznetsov can be kept, as he's a pure center only and with Nicklas Backstrom staying in Washington long term that will, in my opinion, greatly diminish the potential for Kuznetsov to climb to the next level. As for goalies, I'm keeping Hart for sure, as he seems to be thriving under Vigneault and should be an elite netminder for many years. Holtby likely will play a lot for whatever team signs him; however, I think he could be in for a season comparable to what we saw from Sergei Bobrovsky in 2020-21. So for goalies and centers, your keepers are Hart, McDavid, and Matthews.

For the other five spots, you have three automatics in Draisatl, Josi and Makar. Not much needs to be said about them, with Draisaitl being a scoring machine, Josi providing blueline offense for a team which depends on it given its less scoring forward corps, and Makar looked like an elite fantasy defenseman not only during the season but also under the pressure and spotlight of the playoffs.

With SOG and HIT counting, you have to keep Svechnikov, who took a huge step at just age 19 and likely has 100 point, 300 SOG, and 100 Hit potential if not this season then very soon. That leaves you with only one more keeper, and I think it's Hamilton. If you've read my columns you know his combination of SOG and scoring rates per game have not been seen – other than peak Brent Burns – since the days of Al MacInnis and Ray Bourque, and look up their numbers if you want to be dazzled. On top of that, in only 47 games played for 2019-20 Hamilton managed to hit five crossbars and posts, meaning he should've had even more points! Yes, this makes it so nearly half your keepers are defensemen; but I think they're arguably three of the top ten d-men in the league, so they deserve to be on the list.

The toughest omission was Connor, who'll give you great goals and SOG. The issue is he's on a line with two scorers, so that might keep his points down plus he's only eligible at LW not to mention the fact that he doesn't hit much. But if indeed your league allows trading Connor would be a guy I shop for sure, as in a ten-team keep eight league he'll be good enough to get a nice return. Nylander is solid too, but not as much so in multicat. I'm not sure how many other of your guys would entice another team, although Kuznetsov, Ellis, Sergachev, and your non-kept goalies are who I'd put out there, but only after dealing Connor and Nylander, who are your assets most likely to be prized by your fellow GMs. Good luck!

 

Question #3 (also from Gerry)

I am in an 8 team H2H points league, with rosters consisting of 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2G and six bench spots. Skater categories are G (1 point), A (1), PPPts (1), SHP (1), HIT (0.5), and BLK (0.5) and goalie categories are Games Started (1 point), W (2), SO (1). My roster at the end of last season was, along with their positional eligibility: 

 

C – Kevin Hayes, Bo Horvat, Mark Scheifele, Braden Point, Elias Pettersson, Jack Eichel

C/LW – Adam Henrique, Boone Jenner 

LW – Filip Forsberg, Kyle Connor, Taylor Hall, Zach Parise, Chris Kreider; 

LW/RW – Andrei Svechnikov, Mike Hoffman, Anthony Mantha, Kevin Fiala

RW – Brock Boeser, Mikko Rantanen 

D – Roman Josi, Jacob Trouba, Thomas Chabot, Duncan Keith, Neil Pionk, Brady Skjei, Connor Murphy, Erik Karlsson

G – Jordan Binnington, Carter Hart, Connor Hellebuyck

 

We can keep ten players carrying them over into next season. Who do you think are the ten best players to identify as keepers in this league?

 

As with his previous question, Gerry didn't mention whether this league allowed trading. But the same advice would apply here too in that if it is allowed he should try to move any and all players of value he plans not to retain. This league is different, however, in that wingers are not as crucially important, plus there is no SOG category and HITs are only worth half as much as all other skater categories, except for blocks, which is added here, as is SHP.

In a league counting games started, this team has arguably three of what could be the league's top ten fantasy netminders, especially now that St. Louis has fully thrown its confidence behind Binnington with the trade of Jake Allen. If indeed offseason trading is not permitted, I'm halfway tempted to keep all three, as for sure you should be able to get nice value for one of them once the season gets underway. Otherwise, I'd probably take Hart over Binnington since, as noted above, I like Hart on an Alain Vigneault-coached team which knows it won't be winning hockey games by running up the score. So Hart and Hellebuyck, arguably the league's best or second-best fantasy netminder, are the goalie keeps, with Binnington as well if you feel he can get you nice value via trading during the season.

On defense, I'm just keeping Josi, who, simply put, is elite and in a great situation on a team with low scoring forwards. Chabot is tempting; however, although he's a good bet to rebound unless you simply don't have enough forward options I'd label him a redraft.  Pionk piled on PPPts and is tempting too, but likewise, I believe he's a redraft unless you don't have better forwards available.  Karlsson is too risky.

In terms of forwards, let's start with must keeps, which consists of Rantanen, Point, Pettersson, and Eichel. Yes, all four are only eligible at one position, including three at the deepest position in fantasy, namely center. That's not ideal, but each could be within the top 20 NHL scorers next season so they must be kept. Beyond them, the possibilities are Scheifele, Connor, Hall, Kreider, Svechnikov, Mantha, and Fiala. Don't get me wrong – some omitted names are also good; it's just these seven are the best of the rest, and your final three (or two if you keep Binnington) keepers should come from this group.

My first cut is Mantha, who plays great but is fast becoming a band-aid boy, plus Detroit is still a few seasons away from righting its ship. Scheifele is what he is, which is an 80-85 point player; however, he doesn't help you a lot in PPPts or Hits, so with you already keeping three pure centers you have to let him go back into the pool too, or – if permitted – trade him. Although I predicted a nice bounce-back for Hall in my most recent Goldipucks column and he's rumored to be landing in Colorado, his great SOG doesn't count and he's shown a tendency to have an adjustment year when he goes to a new team.

 

Even though SOG doesn't matter, Svechnikov is the one who I feel is most likely to get 90 points in 2020-21, plus a bunch of hits and solid PPPts. I honestly think Kreider will produce more fantasy points than Connor or Fiala given how well he was playing by the end of the season; but that fact is disguised by his season-long totals and as such, I believe he's a redraft. That leaves Connor, who will give you a great balance of and assists and, if Blake Wheeler falters, could see his scoring rise, and Fiala, who plays for a team that is stingy with ice time yet he still managed to score in droves and will be getting Kirill Kaprizov to play alongside him for 2020-21. Connor is the safer bet probably, as I do worry about Fiala living up to expectations and doing well now that defenses will be keying in on his line.

So in summary, my keeps would be Hart, Hellebuyck, Binnington, Josi, Rantanen, Pettersson, Point, Eichel, Svechnikov, and Connor. Or if you don't think it's a good idea to keep three goalies, then for the last spot keep Fiala, Hall, Chabot, or Pionk over Binnington. Your best trade chips, if offseason trading is allowed, are Scheifele, and Mantha, plus whomever among Binnington, Hall and Fiala are not retained. I'd try not to trade Kreider, Chabot or Pionk so I could have the option of redrafting them. Good luck!

 

Question #4 (also from Gerry)

 

I'm in a 12 team H2H league with rosters consisting of 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 4D, 2G and four bench spots. Skater categories are G, A, GWG, PIM, +/-, Defensemen Points, SOG, STG, STA, and goalie categories are W, GAA and SV%. My roster at the end of last season was: 

 

C – Ryan Getzlaf, Kevin Hayes, Elias Pettersson, Mark Scheifele 

C/LW – Gabriel Landeskog, Roope Hintz

C/RW – Ryan Strome

LW – Ondrej Palat, Tanner Pearson, Evander Kane 

LW/RW – Nikita Gusev, Denis Gurianov, Andrei Svechnikov, Andre Burakovsky 

RW – Jake Virtanen

D – Mattias Ekholm, Matt Niskanen, Jeff Petry, Keith Yandle, Filip Hronek 

G – Mikko Koskinen, Alex Stralock, Ben Bishop, Jacob Markstrom.

 

Traditionally this league has only allowed six keepers; but for this coming year it looks like we will be allowed to keep eight. I am leaning toward keeping Pettersson, Scheifele, Svechnikov, Landeskog, Kane, Bishop and Markstrom. Do you agree with those seven, and who would your eighth keeper be?

 

Goalies comprise two of 18 starters and 25% of your categories. Yes, there will be 72-96 total keepers; but I think the math does not favor keeping two goalies. If offseason trading is permitted, I'd dangle both Bishop and Markstrom to all your fellow GMs and take whatever is the best draft pick(s) offer, keeping the other goalie. Or you can trade a goalie and a keeper level player for an upgraded keeper.

Assuming you keep just one goalie and get only a draft pick or picks in return, that leaves seven to retain. I'm all for keeping Pettersson, Svechnikov and Kane, as you have one superstar and two who are already great and might make the leap into truly elite territory this season. I'm also on board with Scheifele and Landeskog. Scheifele has no downside and Landy had 18 points in his last 13 regular-season games and, like other Avs, was very productive in the playoffs.

Looking at your defensemen, you could opt to let them all go. If +/- wasn't a category I'd be considering Hronek, as he will be "the guy" among Detroit rearguards. Petry is tempting in that he's one of just six rearguards with 10+ goals and 40+ points in each of the past three seasons, yet he's not a big name in fantasy (making him a redraft target) and his upside is limited playing under Claude Julien.

That leaves two more spots, and I've run out of must keep players. As such, you could – despite what I said above – keep two goalies, since I can now confirm that doing so wouldn't lead to you having to omit an otherwise great skater keeper. You could also keep Petry. Another option is to capitalize on the great playoffs from Andre Burakovsky and deal him with one or your goalies or Petry for, preferably, an elite blueliner keeper. Don't get me wrong – I think Burakovsky will have a solid season for the Avs; but I can't see him putting up the kind of numbers he did in the playoffs, so as such I'd try to sell high on him.

If you somehow still need one more keeper, I think it comes down to Strome or Gusev. Overlooked in Gusev's season totals is his 11 points in his final ten games, including eight on the PP. Then again, perhaps his overall stats not looking so great make him a redraft? The other option is Strome, whose success is pretty much tied to staying on a line with Artemi Panarin. Chances are that does continue though, as the Rangers were succeeding with two top-line duos of Strome and Panarin and Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider. Strome would be costlier to redraft, so I think I make him the last keep if need be. So my eight keepers would be a goalie, Pettersson, Svechnikov, Kane, Scheifele, Landeskog, and two of (a) Petry, (b) Strome (c) a second goalie, and (d), a defenseman that you get via trading one of your goalies (or Petry or Strome) plus Burakovsky.

I'll make one final, and blunt, comment, which is with your eight keepers comprising more than a third of your roster, I do not think this team is built to contend. Sure, you could crush it at your draft; but chances are you won't be able to improve enough to be in the thick of things with this core of eight. As such, I'd use 2020-21 as a season to make trades to get you more guys like Pettersson and Svechnikov, who are going to be very good now but great soon. That likely means trading Kane and a goalie during the season, and probably other guys you draft. Make it your mission to be in a position to have the best eight possible youngish keepers you can when it comes to the 2021-22 season. Good luck!

 

Question #5 (also from Gerry)

I’m in a 12 team H2H league with rosters consisting of 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 1W, 1F, 4D, 2Util, five bench and five IR. Skater categories are G (3 points), A (2), +/- (1), PPG (2), PPA (1), SHG (4), SHA (3), GWG (5), SOG (0.5), FOW (0.5), FOL (-0.3), HIT (1), BLK (1) and goalie categories of W (5 points), L (-3), SV (0.5), SO (10). My roster at the end of last season consisted of:

 

C – Elias Pettersson, Dylan Larkin, Casey Cizikas, Casey Mittlestadt

C/LW – Gabriel Landeskog, Boone Jenner, Jesper Boqvist, Morgan Frost

C/RW – Mikael Backlund, Blake Wheeler, Cody Glass

LW – Brady Tkachuk, Artemi Panarin

LW/RW – Andrei Svechnikov, Anthony Mantha, Andrew Mangiapane

RW – Dustin Brown, Mitchell Marner, Josh Anderson

D – Jacob Trouba, Erik Cernak, Dakota Mermis, Darnell Nurse, Ben Chariot, Erik Brannstrom

G – Jusse Saros, Anton Forsberg, Braden Holtby

 

Keeper status for this league has not yet been set by the Commissioner. Discussions have ranged from six to 12 keepers. My thinking was to keep Pettersson, Tkachuk, Panarin, Svechnikov, and Marner. I am not certain who the sixth player should be, although I like Larkin, Landeskog, Wheeler, Mantha, Anderson, and Saros. Could you identify 6 keepers and then rank the next six from seven to 12? That way I would be prepared no matter how the decision on keepers goes.

 

I love Svechnikov and Tkachuk in this format. Tkachuk is a monster in SOG and HIT, and soon Svechnikov could be the closest thing to Ovechkin in combining scoring, SOG and HIT. I can't argue with Pettersson, who looked great in the playoffs and is on an up and coming team. Panarin also is a no brainer as he has established himself as a truly elite player. Marner might be close to his ceiling, but if so that still makes him a keeper and he might even be able to tack on a few more points, although the benefit of playing on the Leafs is also a drawback in that they score a lot but there are many talented players to share in those points. So long story short, no argument from me on those five. For number six, it has to be a goalie with 72 being kept. In your format, Saros and Holtby will be close, as Holtby will play a ton. If you only get six keepers, go with Saros, but if you get more than six, then keep one at six and the other at seven.

For #8 I'm going with either Landeskog, who was as hot as they come when the regular season was ending and also fills your categories nicely, or Wheeler, who started 2019-20 slowly but was a point per gamer for the last 50+ contests. Wheeler is part of an elite group of players who scored 91+ points twice in their 30s, with the majority of those players going on to post 90+ yet again before all is said and done. With Landeskog having only one point per game season to his credit and point per game being Wheeler's likely downside, I'm going with Wheeler, but Landy would be the next skater keeper at #9.

I like Mantha at #10, as when he's healthy he's great and as a larger player he probably still hasn't come close to peaking. For #11 give me Larkin as he's better than everyone left by a pretty decent margin. As for Anderson, yes he is built for this league, but Tkachuk will give you what Anderson offers, except with no downside. You can redraft Anderson or find his type of stats among the rest of your draft picks. In fact, for #12 I'd probably keep Boone Jenner before Anderson, as Jenner gives you SOG, HIT and FOW from the wing, plus an outside chance at 40-45+ points if Columbus improves. Good luck!

 

Question #6 (from Antoine)

I would like to know who you think is the best keeper (points only) between Jacob Trouba and Matt Dumba. I feel Dumba has a better upside but Trouba clearly plays for a better offensive team.

 

If we go back to 2018-19, Trouba had just compiled a 50 point season and Dumba produced at a 56 point pace in an injury-shortened campaign. Fast forward to now and both disappointed their owners in points only leagues by scoring at 32 and 29 point paces respectively.

Your point about Trouba playing for the Rangers, a team on the rise, makes sense. But they already have Adam Fox and Tony DeAngelo and there have only been three instances among all NHL teams since 2010-11 where a squad had three 40+ point d-men in the same season. As such, the odds are stacked against Trouba rising back to even a point per every other game level unless DeAngelo is moved. Beyond that, Trouba started only 44.9% of his shifts in the offensive zone, saw time on only a third of New York's PP minutes, and witnessed his PP time shrink with each quarter. Trouba can do more offensively; he's just not going to be put into a position to do so in view of where his (and Fox's and DeAngelo's) talent lies. Yes, he will get points in the normal course by being on the Rangers; but that will only take him so far, probably again to the 30-35 point range barring DeAngelo landing elsewhere.

Unless traded, Dumba also has issues with the presence of other d-men, notably Ryan Suter and Jared Spurgeon. But what intrigues me about him is not only the fact that he scored at or above a 50 point rate in both 2017-18 and 2018-19, but he was also coming back from injury last season, and thus his poor numbers can be somewhat excused, especially since he fired 68 pucks on net in his last 26 games and his PP time remained above 50% despite his struggles. He also had bad puck luck in that not only did his IPP, which had been 45.5% and 47.8% in his previous two seasons, drop to 30.8% in 2019-20, but he also hit nine crossbars, which was the highest number among all d-men this season (plus a crossbar to boot)! With a reversal of his unsustainable bad luck, and even if traded, Dumba should have no trouble rebounding to 45 points with a good shot at 50+, particularly – assuming he's not traded – if Ryan Suter, who's now 35, starts to slow. I'm taking Dumba here by a wide margin. Good luck!

 

Question #7 (from Michael)

I'm in a 12 team keeper with no positional requirements. Rosters are 18 skaters and three goalies, two of whom count for points. Scoring has goals and assists each worth one point and that includes goalie goals or assists, while goalies also get 1.5 points for a win and 4.5 points for a shutout. There is no limit to the number of players in each team's minors, except after five years they must be called up or dropped. Prospects are added during their draft year only. Undrafted players become free agents. My rosters consists of:

Skaters:
Alex Barre-Boulet, Alexander Texier, Alex Tuch, Andreas Athanasiou, Andrew Mangiapane, Colin White, Drake Batherson, Emil Bemstrom, Jack Dugan, Mikael Backlund, Keith Yandle, Kimill Kaprizov, Joonas Donskoi, Chris Tierney, Ryan Donato, Ryan Suter, Troy Terry

 

Goalies:
Igor Shesterkin, Thatcher Demko, Ilya Sorokin

 

Minors: Adam Fox, Timothy Liljegren, Jan Jenik, Alex Beaucage, Henri Nikkanen, Ilya Konovalov, Tuukka Tieksola, Adam Beckman, Jordan Kyrou

 

My 2020 draft picks are 1st, 14, 23, 25, 36, 38 and 46th overall. 

 

With the exception of Kaprizov, I feel I don’t have any real “star” quality prospects/players. I lucked out and got the 1st overall this year, which obviously will be used on Lafrenière. My question is: do I keep that pick, or make a play for the 2nd and 5th overall? I’m not dying to trade the pick, I just want to know if making that trade helps or hurts me long term. 

 

I covered Lafreniere in an earlier mailbag, where I noted that first-round forward picks have, for the most part, been very good to great in the last 10-15 years, with only a couple of exceptions in Nail Yakupov (a bust) and Nico Hischier (TBD). But trading the top pick for two others in the top five – that is mighty tempting. To get a sense of whether it would make sense, ask yourself this – would you trade Leon Draisaitl for Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon, as those are the players who finished first, second and fifth in NHL scoring this season. Yes, I realize that deciding who to grab with those second and fifth picks is more difficult than the easy pick of Lafreniere first overall; but for the deal to work, you'd only need those two guys to get you more in the aggregate than Lafreniere and another player that you would nab with a later pick or as a free agent.

Ask yourself this – why is the other GM pitching this deal? When a deal seems too good to be true, or even just equal for you and the other GM, you want to make sure you're scrutinizing it from all angles. I suspect the other GM feels he or she has enough of a stockpile of talent that one guy who he or she thinks will be great is preferred over two that should be very good but maybe a small step down from that one guy. If so, then the deal might make sense for both of you, since as you noted your minors guys don't have much in the way of very highly touted prospects so two bodies rather that one is tempting.

Given your roster and scoring system, I think I'd be making this deal. Yes, Lafreniere on the Rangers is very tantalizing; however, you probably get more in the aggregate by doing the deal. Good luck!

 

Question #8 (from Nancy)

I'm in a 12 team keeper where each week we must start 6F, 3D, 1G. Scoring is 1 point each for a G,A, SHG, or GWG, 3 points for a hat trick, 2 points for a goalie win and an extra 3 points for a goalie shutout. Before the start of 2020-21, each team must drop down to 10 players (any position) plus any rookies that didn’t play 25 NHL games. Then each team drafts two rookies and ten other players for the start of the new season, to complete our rosters.

 

I'm in a total rebuild, having finished last in both 2018-19 and 2019-20. Already I have made a few trades and, as a result, now pick 1st, 8th and 13th for rookies and 1st and 8th in round one of the main draft. Given my rebuilding plan, who would you keep from: Bo Horvat, Ryan Strome, Robert Thomas, Victor Olofsson, Jacob Vrana, Jack Hughes, Elias Lindholm, Timo Meier, Adam Fox, Charlie McAvoy, Shea Theodore, Josh Morrissey and Carter Hart? My rookies I get to keep are Morgan Frost, Kirill Kaprizov, Barret Hayden, Nicolas Beaudin, Cale Clague, and Cam York. I plan on picking Lafreniere with the first rookie pick and I would like to keep 6F, 3D, and 1G to maintain a good balance. As far as the regular draft, who do you like among Dominik Kubalik, Kailer Yamamoto, Kevin Fiala, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Nick Suzuki, or Anthony Beauvillier?

 

In terms of your keeps, you've named eight forwards, four defensemen, and one goalie, so I believe all that needs to be done is to ditch two forwards and one defenseman, yes? For the six players you listed as draft targets, I'll rank them in order of what I perceive as best to worst for a rebuilding team.

For your forward drops, first I'm losing Olofsson. I see him as having a 30-35 goal, 20-25 assist ceiling and a chance of not even reaching that. The list of 24-year-old rookies who didn't pan out long term is a lot longer than those who did. Yes, he seems to be a sniper on a team that sorely needs one; but I worry that the pressure to play the high-priced Jeff Skinner will come at the expense of Olofsson. Plus, I think Meier will eventually give you what Olofsson does, and more.

For the second drop, it's a close call between Horvat and Strome. Horvat is more talented, but I feel he might be the second coming of Jonathan Toews in that he'll focus more on helping his team than on padding his numbers. Strome's issue is he's propped up almost entirely by playing with Artemi Panarin. And while there's every reason to believe the pair will stay together, the looming arrival of Lafreniere muddies the waters and at a minimum might cost Strome PP time. Then again, the Rangers don't really have a second-line center, nor the cap room to sign someone, so Strome seems like a safe bet to keep his cushy spot. I could see the reasoning in picking either one, but when in doubt on a rebuilding team go with the younger player, and that's Horvat by two years. So don't keep Olofsson and Strome.

On defense, if Krug resigns with Boston, McAvoy is the non-keep. Otherwise, drop Morrissey, who has talent but whom the Jets need to focus on defense first. It's a situation similar to Ryan Pulock and the above-discussed Trouba where in some cases real-world skill leads to subpar fantasy deployment.

For your draft pick targets and given your rebuild, I like Fiala the most, especially with you already having Kaprizov. After him, I'd probably go with Bjorkstrand, who was playing point per game hockey and firing pucks on the net left and right for the latter chunk of last season and has indeed arrived ala Fiala. After them, it gets murkier. Probably I go with Yamamoto next, as he will slot into the Edmonton top six, which is a fantasy jackpot. Next, I'd go with Suzuki, who played quite well despite being in a Claude Julien system and should be reaching his prime right around the time that Julien will no longer be the coach. After him, I'll go with Kubalik, as there too his rookie age of 24 scares me even though he seems likely to have a spot in Chicago's top six sewn up. Lastly is Beauvillier, who is talented but plays on a team – and line – which does not emphasize offensive output. Even with his great showing in the playoffs he still didn't come across as much more than a 50 point player, so in his prime maybe he gets 60, which I think is the downside of the rest of these guys. Good luck!

 

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I realize in some cases players I recommended keeping in response to one question I said not to keep in answering another. The reason for this seemingly inconsistent advice is that the specific circumstances differed, such as categories, position requirements, other keeper options, etc.  Remember that when it comes to keeper decisions, it's never one size fits all…..

 

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee". Or if you prefer to wait, the time to get me question is right after each Roos Lets Loose Poll, since the mailbag normally runs the following week.

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible, since as you saw above in a couple of the questions there were some omitted details which made it difficult for me to give a truly proper answer. Examples of the types of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs H2H), does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if necessary (such as free agents available if you're thinking of dropping a player or rosters of both teams if you're thinking of making a trade). The key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, err on the side of inclusion.