Fantasy Take: Devan Dubnyk traded to San Jose

Michael Clifford

2020-10-05

Goaltending has been a sore spot for the Sharks for years now, and they're attempting to address this problem by acquiring goaltender Devan Dubnyk from the Minnesota Wild for a fifth-round pick in 2022. Aaron Dell just became a UFA this year so it appears that the Sharks will be going into 2020-21 with a tandem of Devan Dubnyk and Martin Jones.

Once upon a time, Dubnyk was a very good goalie. He had a pair of top-5 Vezina finishes during his Minnesota tenure and put up a .918+ save percentage in four straight seasons. But he had a very bad 2019-20 – probably the worst season of his career – and Minnesota is making 'culture changes' so here we are.

Dubnyk should not be written off here. He had a very bad 2019-20 but he was at least solid every year from 2016-19. He is on the older side at 34 but eschewing the possibility of a goaltender rebounding from a career-worst season after several solid-to-great seasons is a mistake.

The word 'solid' here deserves some clarification. What is meant is that he's probably an NHL-calibre goalie, either of the high-end backup or low-end starter variety. It's not to mean that he has a chance of becoming a Vezina-calibre goalie again, because I think those days are long gone.

It won't take much for Dubnyk to be an upgrade on San Jose's goaltending these last few years. They've arguably been the worst in the league for a few years now, so Dubnyk just keeping them in games means he probably takes over the starting job. But it cuts both ways. Should Martin Jones get on a heater at any point, Dubnyk will be stapled to the bench. This is a team with hundreds of millions of dollars tied up for the next 5-6 years as it is. At this point, they're still going to push for Cups, which means that the name of the goaltender will be irrelevant; whoever gets hot will get starts. Dubnyk has the inside edge – they're bringing him in for a reason – but it's not a lock he makes 55 starts next season by any stretch.

Also, Minnesota was one of the best defensive teams in the league the last few years. San Jose won't be that next season. Dubnyk probably won't repeat an .890 save percentage, but he's going to a worse team in their own end. Just a league-average save percentage from Dubnyk will result in a useful fantasy campaign, and he’s capable of that.

This probably makes Josef Korenar wait another year before getting a crack at the NHL but that's not such a bad thing. He doesn't turn 23 until January and Dubnyk has just the one year left on his contract. Hopefully, Korenar will be ready in a year's time.

It does make the Minnesota goaltending situation more interesting, though. Alex Stalock presumably has the starting job now but Kaapo Kahkonen got some work in last year and would presumably be in line to make a lot more than five starts he managed. It doesn't take much imagination to see Kahkonen ending up with the lion's share of starts next season.

 

Who this helps

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Kaapo Kahkonen

Alex Stalock

 

Who this hurts

Martin Jones

Devan Dubnyk

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