Ramblings: Pool Party time; DeMelo and Domi sign; Draft thoughts; free agency looms – October 8

Michael Clifford

2020-10-08

The Oilers signed forward Jesse Puljujarvi to a two-year deal worth $1.175M per season. The 22-year old forward played in Europe last year after playing parts of three seasons with Edmonton. It seemed the bridge was burned but with a new regime in charge, Pulju returns.

I have illustrated it before, but now that he's signed, it's worth doing it again. Here are Connor McDavid's numbers from 2016 through 2019 at 5-on-5 with Pulju on the wing, and then Leon Draisaitl on the wing (from Natural Stat Trick):

 

97 w/ Pulju (407 mins) 97 w/ Drai (1981 mins)
CF/60 70.48 62.45
CA/60 57.54 55.94
xGF/60 3.51 2.98
xGA/60 2.59 2.43
xGF% 57.53% 55.03%
GF/60 3.53 3.91
GA/60 2.21 2.88
GF% 61.54% 57.59%

 

This is just so everyone can see – sample size issues aside – that the on-ice processes and results for McDavid playing with Pulju were similar or better to those with Draisaitl. He also led the Oilers in shot attempts/60 minutes through his first two seasons.

Pulju deserves a crack at the top line immediately, full stop. None of this 'we'll see how things shake out' or 'he has to work his way up'. This team has one good right winger and that guy (Yamamoto) has fewer than half the NHL games played Pulju does. If he starts with Jujhar Khaira, I might swallow my own face.

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Following the trade to Columbus, Max Domi signed for two years at $5M per season. That gives him time to establish himself as a top-6 centre again before he hits free agency.

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The Sens did not give a qualifying offer to Anthony Duclair, so he will be an unrestricted free agent. Seems weird for a team that is $20M *under* the lower cap limit that currently has just two non-ELC forwards under contract, but I’m not a GM.

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The Jets have re-signed defenceman Dylan DeMelo for three years at $4M per season.

For the real hockey team, this is a good signing. They're beyond thin on the blue line and need all the help they can get, and DeMelo is a legitimate middle-pair defenceman.

In fantasy terms, he probably has his best seasons ahead of him. He had never played 20 minutes a game consistently until getting to Winnipeg, where he was over 21 a game by the end of the regular season. DeMelo is a guy who relies on peripherals for value, which means he needs minutes. The more minutes, the better. In a full year, he should soar past 250 combined hits/blocks and that will play in multi-cat leagues. Just don't expect a lot of points.

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I know we didn't have much in the way of trades on Day 1 of the draft in 2019, but I was hoping that for the 2020 version, teams feeling the crunch would get their act in gear. That was obviously not the case and it's curious to me exactly why this is. Teams that aren't at the top of the league have been hesitant to trade away first-round picks, which means we get a small pool of teams to trade from, which is why the Flames trades were the only ones we saw.

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Here are Cam's Ramblings from yesterday, talking about Day 1 from the Draft. I just wanted to pass along my own thoughts, since my familiarity with players from Day 2 of the Draft is extremely limited.

  • It is still very weird to me that Columbus didn't trade down from 21. Now, we aren't working with the same information as other general managers. Maybe Kekalainen had an idea there were a couple teams picking after Columbus that wanted Chinakhov with their first-round pick. That is possible and would easily explain Kekalainen's actions. Anything else, however, is asset mismanagement and the type of thing bad general managers do. I'll let readers decide on their own.
  • Winnipeg may have come out of the draft with the best possible situation falling into their lap. This team desperately needs a future 2C behind Mark Scheifele, and Cole Perfetti fell to 10th (whether he 'fell' depends on each individual's ranking, I suppose). It's not often that best player available and team need intersect at the draft, and that seems to have happened for Winnipeg. I wonder if this changes their feeling on trading a winger, or simply bolsters it.
  • Anaheim seems to be putting together a very good prospect pool. Again, I'm not a scout, but Zegras and Tracey last year, and then Drysdale and Perreault this year, is a good start to getting this team back on track. They have a lot of young talent at the NHL level now and a lot on the way in 2-3 years. It will take time, but Anaheim really seems to be moving in the right direction.
  • Detroit is putting together some serious talent up front. There's already the top line of Bertuzzi-Larkin-Mantha. They traded for Robby Fabbri, have Filip Zadina rounding into form, and Joe Veleno on the way. Now they add Lucas Raymond to the mix. I think Veleno's progression is important – a legit 2C is crucial here – but the Wings are putting together a real nice crop of forwards.
  • I can't help but feel that Ottawa pulled a 2015 Bruins here. I don't have a real problem with the Tim Stützle but it does seem he'll be a winger and easily the best of their draft picks (like Jake DeBrusk but better). And then there are two guys picked later over others that have more upside, effectively trading upside for security and getting neither. And the Sens absolutely cannot afford to punt this draft. The next 10 years of this franchise hinges on the 2020 NHL Draft. I really do hope the Sens end up with three good NHLers because the fanbase doesn't deserve more misery beyond whatever Melnyk inflicts. I just don't like their picks, in totality, at all. Please prove me wrong, if only for the sanity of some of my friends.

That is about it from me. I wrote on Tuesday that I was hoping Jan Mysak would go in the first round and he didn't. I noticed some of our Dobber writers were high on Helge Grans (DP profile here) and it made me wonder if either of those guys is going to be someone's Arthur Kaliyev. Funnily enough, Grans went to Los Angeles. That prospect pool is something else.

Oh, and Mysak ended up with the Habs. I still think Bergevin is decimating the team with terrible contracts, but at least he drafted Mysak.

One last note: the Flames selected Jérémie Poirier in the third round. I noticed some of our writers (and other places) had him either in the late first or somewhere in the first half of the second round.

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For a bigger breakdown of the first round, here are Tony Ferrari's prospect Ramblings from Wednesday. Check over at Dobber Prospects for more 2nd+ round content.

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This weekend is free agent frenzy. It's also Thanksgiving weekend. I really wish the NHL would look at these things when making their schedule.

Anyway, for readers unfamiliar with our process, we're going to have articles going up all day Friday as signings are made, and that will extend through the weekend. We write about the player being signed, their role on the team their going to, and how all this impacts the team they're going to and the team they just left. All this, of course, with a fantasy slant to it.

Sometimes, it can get hectic. If I'm not mistaken, 2016 free agent frenzy started with a slew of signings right at noon. It took four of us basically the afternoon to dig out from under the all the early signings.

This year won't feature an interview period, which means teams aren't supposed to be in contact with free agents before Friday (lol). In theory, that should mean signings are slower to be announced as teams are only supposed start their negotiations tomorrow (again, lol). Whether that's what happens in practice, we'll see.

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But we'll be around all weekend. It may take some time depending on availability, but we'll have articles up for all the important signings. We won't be covering an AHLer getting a one-year, two-way deal, but readers can be assured we'll have the bigger ones.

Be sure to keep it locked on Dobber Hockey all weekend for your free agent fantasy hockey news.

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I wrote about the Anderson/Domi trade a couple days ago. Readers can get my thoughts there.

The big news from interviews on Wednesday is that Anderson is apparently healthy and ready to go:

 

 

Shoulder injuries can be fickle (just ask Vladimir Tarasenko) but we've had concerns about players with shoulder injuries before (thinking of Taylor Hall) and they've come out the other side just fine (yes I realize not all shoulder injuries are created equal). A fully healthy Anderson in the starting lineup next year has to be a pleasant thought for Claude Julien.

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Minnesota traded Devan Dubnyk earlier this week, but GM Bill Guerin doesn't seem ready to turn over the team to Kaapo Kahkonen just yet. He mentions in that linked interview about going out and addressing their goaltending. That would indicate they're not going into next year with a tandem of Stalock-Kahkonen. Hold off on buying all those Kahkonen dynasty shares.

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An important note from Cap Friendly:

 

 

What I take from that is the NTC/NMC date. Those with NTC/NMC protections kicking in for 2020-21 will have them start when free agency starts. That gives teams roughly one day to trade anyone that has an incoming NTC/NMC that they want gone. Will it lead to a flood of movement? I don't know. But it could force hands in some instances.

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Starting Goalies

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JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
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JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

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MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
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LINE COMBOS

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27.0 MATT CORONATO BLAKE COLEMAN MIKAEL BACKLUND
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14.6 CONNOR ZARY YEGOR SHARANGOVICH JAKOB PELLETIER

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