Ramblings: 2020-21 Season (Non) Update, Top 100 Wait List – Tuch, Bjorkstrand, Fox (Oct 24)

Ian Gooding

2020-10-24

We continue to be in the dark as to when the 2020-21 season will start and what exactly it will look like. Elliotte Friedman posted a thread on Friday on what is known and what is still being worked on.

For what it's worth, the NBA is targeting a pre-Christmas (December 22) start date with a 70-game season, so that might be a model the NHL considers as well, although I doubt it'll be a full 82-game season at this point. One major hurdle is the Canada/US border situation, which is why separate Canadian/US divisions might be a necessity (at least to start). Another major consideration is whether fans will be allowed, as the bubble doesn't look like it will happen in 2020-21 for financial reasons. And of course, there's the damned virus, which is showing no signs of slowing down and is in fact picking up in many places.

I won't delve into what might happen any further, but all of this makes it difficult to plan a fantasy season start. The only comparable we know of is a lockout, where drafts likely had to occur (or reoccur) right before the season start. If you have to know soon, I'd say pencil in a December draft on your calendar, assuming they can pull off a January 1 start. December can be an exceptionally busy month with the normal routine plus holiday shopping and activities, which would make for an unusual dynamic if you're also trying to put together a draft that is as close to the start of the season as possible.

Better yet, consider an asynchronous draft via email chain, forum, or Google Docs to pass what's going to be another long dead period. I use this in my keeper league every season, only this season we will be starting sometime in November instead of in August. Slow drafts might not be as exciting as the live drafts, but many of you will appreciate the fact that you'll be able to make less panicked choices.

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A few signings on Friday:

The Leafs have signed defenseman Travis Dermott to a one-year contract worth $874,125. Dermott finished the 2019-20 with 11 points (4g-7a) in 56 games. His 17:19 of icetime per game was sixth among Leafs blueliners, and he figures to slot in with third-pairing minutes again in 2020-21.

The Flames have brought defenseman Nikita Nesterov back to the NHL, signing him to a one-year contract worth $700,000. Nesterov last played in the NHL in 2016-17, having spent the last three seasons with CSKA Moscow of the KHL. He will likely be a bottom-pairing depth blueliner for the Flames.

The Wild have signed Marco Rossi to his three-year, entry-level contract. Rossi was the ninth overall pick in the recent entry draft. For more on Rossi, see his Dobber Prospects profile.

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If you have a roto league draft soon, or simply want to get a head start on one that won't start anytime soon, have a peek at the Top 100 Roto Rankings. While you're there, leave some feedback. These rankings are a constant work in progress, and maybe you'll notice something that I don't. We just want you to benefit from these rankings, and there's a ton of shared knowledge in the Dobber community.

Over the past week, I've had plenty of feedback on these rankings, particularly regarding players that could be added to the Top 100 in the future. The following three players fall into that category, although I don't think they're quite there yet. Maybe we'll be discussing them in the list in 2021, but for now they'll be on the wait list.

Alex Tuch

When analysts mention players that pass the "eye test", Tuch is without a doubt one of those players. The first time you watch him play, you wonder how on earth your team will be able to stop him. Tuch has both the size (6-4, 220 lbs.) and the blazing speed that appears to make him impossible to contain.

If you were counting on those tools in your 2019-20 fantasy season, he probably fell short of your expectations. After a 20-goal, 52-point career high in 2018-19, Tuch sagged to just 17 points (8g-9a) in 42 games, a season that was cut short by injury. Tuch was able to return for the postseason, where he improved his stock with eight goals and 12 points in 20 games. Included in that postseason output was a four-game goal streak that spanned the series against Chicago and Vancouver.

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Drafting Tuch in the top 100 would be drafting him way too early, though. Rightly or not, Vegas has its top 6 forwards locked up, and Tuch seems to be on the outside looking in. He bounced around the lineup in the regular season, while his most frequent linemates in the postseason were Nicolas Roy and the since-departed Nick Cousins. In spite of the bottom-6 usage, Tuch had a better point total than the likes of Jonathan Marchessault, Paul Stastny, Max Pacioretty, and William Karlsson during the postseason.

It might just be about Tuch getting his opportunity… eventually. That opportunity may coincide with when he reaches his peak. His next season will be his fourth, while he's just reached 200 career games.

Oliver Bjorkstrand

If his season hadn't been cut short by injury, Bjorkstrand may already be in the top 100 by now. After a slow start to 2019-20 (six points in 19 games), Bjorkstrand was one of the hottest players that could have been on your waiver wire at one point, scoring 17 goals and 30 points over his last 30 games. We will never know how impressive that season truly could have been, since he missed 21 games due to injury.

Bjorkstrand's point increase wasn't just luck. Instead, he was a player who was finally receiving his opportunity. The departure of Artemi Panarin helped, as did even longer injury time to Cam Atkinson. Between 2018-19 and 2019-20, Bjorkstrand's icetime increased by over five minutes per game, including an increase of over a minute per game on the power play. Although he scored three goals with no assists in ten postseason games, the near-half season point-per-game stretch should be a sign of continued success.

With no truly elite scoring options in Columbus, the icetime should still be there for the taking for Bjorkstrand. To some, he may already be a top-100 option. I'm not quite there on him yet, as he'll need still more sustained success, which will include top-line and first-unit power-play usage.

Adam Fox

If not for the spectacular rookie campaigns of Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes, Fox would have received more buzz as a potential Calder Trophy winner. With 42 points in 70 games, he outpaced the likes of Morgan Rielly, Jeff Petry, and Tyson Barrie on a points-per-game basis.

Although Fox didn't receive the first-unit power-play minutes in 2019-20, he possesses the necessary skills to be able to run an NHL power play. Of the 19 defensemen who recorded more power-play points than Fox, none averaged less power-play time per game than Fox (1:59 PPTOI) or played a lower percentage of his team's power-play time (37.2%).

The problem is that Tony DeAngelo occupies the first-unit power play spot, and he also seems suited for that role. DeAngelo tied for ninth among defensemen with 19 power-play points, while he tied for fourth among defensemen with 53 points. DeAngelo recently signed a two-year bridge deal worth $4.8 million, which covers the same duration as the remainder of Fox's three-year entry-level contract worth $925,000. It's possible that Fox has to buy his time where he is while the Rangers decide what to do long-term with DeAngelo, who will still be an RFA after the contract. The worst-case scenario for scoring-minded DeAngelo will be that he follows the same path as Shayne Gostisbehere, who became a healthy scratch once the scoring dried up.

The potential battle for power-play minutes between Fox and DeAngelo will be one to watch going forward. The Rangers will benefit the most, as it looks like they will run a second-unit power play that will be surpassed by few. As for Fox, obtaining that first-unit power-play time will be key for him acquiring a spot in the top 100.

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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

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