Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Brennan Des (subbing for Cam Robinson), and Dobber

1. The Blackhawks are a team with 30M tied up in over-30’s for next season. Almost all of them with term. Yes, they have Kirby Dach, Alex DeBrincat, and Adam Boqvist. Those three should form a nice nucleus moving forward. But this is an organization with one of the poorest prospect pools in the game.

If you’re going to rebuild, it’s going to be a long haul at this point. May as well dish Patty Kane, right? Well, crazier things could happen. And if I’m a Kane owner (which I am) then I’m looking forward to that potentially coming to fruition.

Get him out of dodge and off to a contender for the next few seasons. He remains magic and has that rare triple-digit upside. He could still manifest it in Chicago while they turn the page, but it’ll be a lot more difficult.

On the flip side, if the GM’s words trickle down to the coach’s brain, then we should see those previously mentioned youngsters witnessing their deployment ramp up. That’s great news for owners.

Moral of the story: Chicago will be an interesting, albeit poor, team next season. (oct21)

2. After a slow start to 2019-20 (six points in 19 games), Oliver Bjorkstrand was one of the hottest players that could have been on your waiver wire at one point, scoring 17 goals and 30 points over his last 30 games. We will never know how impressive that season truly could have been, since he missed 21 games due to injury.

Bjorkstrand’s point increase wasn’t just luck. Instead, he was a player who was finally receiving his opportunity. The departure of Artemi Panarin helped, as did even longer injury time to Cam Atkinson. Between 2018-19 and 2019-20, Bjorkstrand’s ice time increased by over five minutes per game, including an increase of over a minute per game on the power play. Although he scored three goals with no assists in ten postseason games, the near-half season point-per-game stretch should be a sign of continued success.

With no truly elite scoring options in Columbus, the ice time should still be there for the taking for Bjorkstrand. (oct24)

3. If not for the spectacular rookie campaigns of Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes, Adam Fox would have received more buzz as a potential Calder Trophy winner. With 42 points in 70 games, he outpaced the likes of Morgan Rielly, Jeff Petry, and Tyson Barrie on a points-per-game basis.

Although Fox didn’t receive the first-unit power-play minutes in 2019-20, he possesses the necessary skills to be able to run an NHL power play. Of the 19 defensemen who recorded more power-play points than Fox, none averaged less power-play time per game than Fox (1:59 PPTOI) or played a lower percentage of his team’s power-play time (37.2%).

The problem is that Tony DeAngelo occupies the first-unit power play spot, and he also seems suited for that role. DeAngelo tied for ninth among defensemen with 19 power-play points, while he tied for fourth among defensemen with 53 points. DeAngelo recently signed a two-year bridge deal worth $4.8 million, which covers the same duration as the remainder of Fox’s three-year entry-level contract worth $925,000. It’s possible that Fox has to buy his time where he is while the Rangers decide what to do long-term with DeAngelo, who will still be an RFA after the contract. The worst-case scenario for scoring-minded DeAngelo will be that he follows the same path as Shayne Gostisbehere, who became a healthy scratch once the scoring dried up.

The potential battle for power-play minutes between Fox and DeAngelo will be one to watch going forward. The Rangers will benefit the most, as it looks like they will run a second-unit power play that will be surpassed by few. As for Fox, obtaining that first-unit power-play time will be key for him acquiring a spot in the top 100. (oct24)

4. The Flames have brought defenseman Nikita Nesterov back to the NHL, signing him to a one-year contract worth $700,000. Nesterov last played in the NHL in 2016-17, having spent the last three seasons with CSKA Moscow of the KHL. He will likely be a bottom-pairing depth blueliner for the Flames. (oct24)

5. It was a bad year for Erik Karlsson and the Sharks, but it’s worth noting Karlsson was on nearly a 60-point pace for the 2019-20 season. Him posting 40 points in 56 games despite the team being bad and him having a down year should tell us how much upside there still is. (oct23)

6. The Sens signed Connor Brown for three years with an AAV of $3.6M. It will be interesting to see how they use Brown, because if he’s on the top line, it pushes Evgenii Dadonov down to the second line, and playing with unproven players. How Brown figures into the lineup goes a long way in projecting what Dadonov can and will do. (oct23)

7. There was a video conference with Montreal coach Claude Julien on Thursday. Early on, John Lu from TSN tweeted that Julien had lost weight and started some lifestyle changes following his cardiac event a couple months ago. That is great news and best wishes to Julien.

The second salient point, which is important for fantasy hockey, is that Alexander Romanov is not only in the mix for the lineup, but he’s a contender to play the right side (one of their LHD will have to play RHD this year):

@JohnLuTSNMtl: #Habs Julien mentioning Romanov in the mix to play the right side among other LHS D like Mete, Edmundson and possibly Kulak is a very strong endorsement of the rookie. In French, CJ said he’d be surprised if Romanov didn’t start the season with the big club.

At the least, Julien expects him to start the year with the big club. Whether he lasts all season, well, we’ll see. But that he’s so highly thought of already is a good sign.

He also intimated later that the top line of Tomas Tatar–Phillip Danault–Brendan Gallagher will stay together. That isn’t a huge surprise but that also probably pushes Jesperi Kotkaniemi to the third line. Montreal got deeper at the wing but third-line minutes isn’t good for anyone’s fantasy value. (oct23)

8. Phillip Danault is a player who is known almost exclusively for his defensive prowess, but he has more 5-on-5 points over the last two years than Elias Pettersson, Mathew Barzal, or Sebastian Aho. It really is curious that with Danault being such a great passer that Montreal’s power play has been so bad (he hasn’t been featured much, is one issue). Regardless, he has a lot more fantasy value than he did two years ago. (oct22)

9. This offseason, the Habs went and addressed their most glaring need: depth at the wing. They hit a homerun with the signing of Tyler Toffoli and while the Josh Anderson contract is probably longer than they’d like, if he can play like he did before the 2019-20 season hit, it’ll be fine. (That’s a big “if” and the value of the entire contract hinges on it.) If they move Toffoli to left wing, their top-4 wingers are Tatar-Gallagher and Toffoli-Anderson. That’s a drastic improvement from a year ago.

I am still of the mind that the Joel Edmundson contract was a waste of money. They could have just run a top-4 of Ben Chiarot–Shea Weber and Brett Kulak–Jeff Petry with a bottom pair of Victor Mete–Alexander Romanov, and probably been just as well off while saving themselves $14M. At the same time, as long as Edmundson is on the bottom pair, it shouldn’t hurt them too badly.

They finished things off by extending Brendan Gallagher for six years with another team-friendly contract.

All in all, this was a very promising signing season where one bad deal and one iffy one will make or break it. If Edmundson can be passable on the bottom pair and Anderson can return to 2018-19 form, this offseason is a home run. If those things don’t come to pass, it’s still fine. Not a home run; maybe a double off the end of the bat down the right-field line.

I am still a bit reticent for saying the Habs have overhauled anything until they produce a quality power play. This may surprise some people but the Habs ranked favorably to other great teams in goals/60 minutes at 5-on-5 like Boston and St. Louis. The goal-scoring problem was the power play ranking similarly to other bad teams like Los Angeles and New Jersey. New faces and more improvement from Nick Suzuki could change things, but we need to see it first. (oct20)

10. Jake Virtanen signed a two-year deal with the Canucks, averaging just under $2.6M a season. With Tyler Toffoli out of the mix, there is a spot in the top-6 forward group for Virtanen. It is his for the taking. He just needs to take it. He’ll be worth a roster spot in 12-team banger league should he be able to stay top-6. (oct23)

11. Martin Necas posted 16 goals and 36 points last year. He was just outside the 90th percentile in primary shot-assist rate, and combined with good-to-great zone entry/exit rates, it certainly bodes well for his NHL future. The problem here is he doesn’t shoot, having a shot rate near the bottom-third of the league. He still has a lot of time to grow into more shots, but it is something to keep an eye on. True fantasy stars can both pass and shoot, so Necas needs to start demonstrating the latter in 2020-21 for us to really be excited about his fantasy potential. It’s the difference between, say, the last 4-5 years of Blake Wheeler and the last 4-5 years of Ryan Johansen. (oct22)

12. Both Filip Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson had down years (for different reasons) in Nashville and there just isn’t a lot to speak of offensively beyond that with Granlund and Smith gone. They need help, and hopefully the help comes in the form of Philip Tomasino and Eeli Tolvanen. About that first name, a curious little tidbit:

@BryanBastin: So Tomasino is going to wear 26 this season per the #Preds 

As Mr. Bastin of On The Forecheck states in a subsequent tweet, teams normally don’t announce the numbers of players who won’t be on the roster. If Tomasino can step in as a second-line winger, this is a huge win for the Preds. Regardless, it’s good news for dynasty owners. They may get a new player in their lineup in short order. (oct22)

13. Ryan Johansen's shot assist rate in 2019-20 exceeded that of Patrick Kane and Johnny Gaudreau, with Nikita Kucherov and Brad Marchand just ahead of him. He has continued to perform in process as he has in recent seasons yet his assists per game fell off a cliff. There are still concerns fantasy-wise for the Preds – a lot of it being coach Jon Hynes – but if Johansen keeps doing what he does, his wingers will rebound, and so will he. How much they rebound is the question. (oct22)

14. Over the past few years, I’ve had the pleasure of providing injury updates here at DobberHockey. I think the experience has provided me with unique insight into how injuries should affect a player’s fantasy hockey value. Initially, I believed that injury history was an integral component of player evaluation. I had a misguided mindset that if a player missed games in the past, they were more likely to miss games in the future. However, my opinion on the topic has evolved over time, as I came to realize that I was oversimplifying a complex situation. When factoring injuries into a player’s fantasy hockey value, it’s extremely important to consider context.

For example, if you allowed Anthony Mantha‘s injury history to weigh down his fantasy value, you’d miss out on a rising star that has consistently improved his point production over the last few years. He paced for 49 points during 2017-2018 campaign, 59 points in 18-19, and 72 points last season. Injuries have prevented Mantha from actually achieving the lofty point totals he’s been on pace for. However, that just means you’re getting a discount on a really good player, because odds are, he’ll be drafted much later than he should be in your fantasy league.

With all this incoherent babble, I’m trying to say that missing games due to injury in the past, shouldn’t automatically diminish a player’s future fantasy hockey value. The story is usually much more complex and it’s worth judging each case individually, rather than using a generalized approach. In Mantha’s case, I don’t think his early fight-related injuries are as relevant today, because his playing style has evolved significantly over the last few years. That leaves just the knee injury and punctured lung, which I see as two isolated events that were caused by the random, fast-paced nature of hockey. (oct19)

15. It’s time. Rasmus Dahlin needs to be completely unleashed in Buffalo. We all understood; the teenager has played incredibly well in his first two NHL seasons, and a big reason for that has been the sheltered deployment. He’s been kept on a leash. The 59 percent offensive zone start times through his first 141 career games is a testament to that.

He saw his power-play minutes spike 75 seconds from 2018-19 to last season. And he was worth every penny of the production he manifested.

However, there is no longer an excuse to be limiting him to just 16 minutes of even-strength ice per game. The 20-year-old, former first-overall selection is ripe and ready to swallow up the kingmaker minutes. Yes, there will be hiccups defensively. The Sabres are plenty used to that with Rasmus Ristonlainen being the de facto number one defender for the last few seasons. Now is the time to give Dahlin 20 at 5v5 and ratchet up the PP time even further. You spent the greatest of draft capital on this young man and you need him to achieve the lofty two-way potential that he possesses.

And here’s the thing, I believe coach Ralph Kreuger will give it to him. When he does, coupled with the growth of the surrounded young talent in Buffalo and the addition of Taylor Hall, things should get fun.

We’re nearing the two year anniversary of this tweet. And while it was too hot to type without oven mitts on, I’m not backing away from it just yet.

@Hockey_Robinson: Prediction time! Rasmus Dahlin will be the first defender to record 100 points since Brian Leetch in 1991-92. *ducks and covers*

If any of you have the opportunity to scoop Dahlin in a trade, now is the time. If you’re drafting in a new keep/dynasty setup, bump him right up near the top of the defender ranking. Yes, ahead of established studs. His long term value dwarfs pretty much any defender over the age of 26.

Buy now or forever hold your peace. (oct21)

16. Josh Morrissey finished near the bottom of the league in primary shot assist rate last year. He quite literally finished with a lower rate than names like Jay Bouwmeester, Robert Hagg, and Kris Russell. This is a year after he finished inside the 70th percentile.

There are weird things going on with Morrissey. We have four seasons of data to work with, and here are his percentiles for shot-assist rate, starting with 2016-17: 28th, 45th, 71st, 35th. Maybe there is a good reason he hasn’t been able to lock down the top power-play unit.

With Neal Pionk running the top power-play unit and Ville Heinola on the way, the hope for Morrissey to run the top PP unit is probably gone. Add in Morrissey’s ongoing playmaking issues and his hit rate cratering – honestly, has anyone noticed Morrissey dropped from 1.77 hits per game three years ago to 0.93 in 2018-19 and 0.52 last year? Dropping from 145 hits to 65 hits is cataclysmic for his fantasy value, given how limited his profile is elsewhere. (oct23)

17. I think the crux of the Jets' 2020-21 season, beyond Connor Hellebuyck repeating his Vezina performance, will be Ville Heinola. It seems like forever ago, but he had a brief tryout at the start of the 2019-20 campaign and looked good for the Jets. If he can step in and be a top-4 defenseman out of the gate, now they have Josh Morrissey/Heinola/Dylan DeMelo. That is two more top-4 defensemen than they had a year ago. Add that with Paul Stastny and there is a lot of positive news around Winnipeg these days.

There are still the rumors they could trade Patrik Laine, at which point we may need to re-assess. At the least, they shouldn’t need Hellebuyck to stand on his head every game. (oct20)

18. In a recent Ramblings, I listed five players that could break into the Top 100 Roto Rankings in 2020-21. They aren’t all necessarily sleepers or young up-and-comers – just players that you could make a strong case in being within the top 100.

As I also mentioned, there are going to be solid arguments for over 100 players to be listed in the top 100. Yet the top 100 can only fit 100 players. I mentioned that for players that I am considering, I’m using a wait list. Based on some recent feedback, I’m going to add at least two more names to that list. Here's one:

Pierre-Luc Dubois: The Blue Jackets center was in the top 100 at one point, but I had removed him in July because he had failed to reach 50 points during the regular season. There are a handful of forwards in the top 100 who did not reach 50 points in 2019-20, some of whom did not play a full season and a few who are bangers (I discuss two of them later). Dubois managed to play a full season, and he does have some banger value (100+ hits in two of his three seasons). Even though he did not reach 50 points, he still led the Blue Jackets with 49 points.

Since then, we’ve had a postseason, where Dubois stood out with 10 points, 27 shots, and 20 hits in 10 games. Leafs fans in particular may remember him for his hat trick in Game 3 of the Toronto/Columbus series, but Dubois scored six of his points in five games against the eventual cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning. The strong postseason no doubt helps Dubois’ cause to return to the top 100.

There’s also something else to keep an eye on for Dubois: he is about to enter his fourth NHL season, the breakout for many players. To his advantage, he has never missed a game over three NHL seasons. The Blue Jackets don’t boast a loaded scoring attack, but the offseason addition of Max Domi could take some of the pressure off the Dubois line to produce. He’s definitely in the conversation for top-100 value.

Dubois is currently an unsigned RFA, so those in salary cap leagues will need to keep an eye on what his contract will look like. In his Top 200 Free Agent Salary Projections, Alex projects a cap hit of just over $6.7 million for Dubois. (oct18)

19. The Penguins have signed blueliner Cody Ceci to a one-year, $1.25 million contract. Ceci’s one-year contract with the Leafs last season was for $4.5 million, so this is an example of a player taking a significant pay cut based on the economic climate of 2020. Say what you want about Ceci’s ability, but he fills the need of a right-shot defenseman, which become more difficult to find deeper into the offseason. The term is short and the cap hit is small, so the signing isn’t of Jack Johnson proportions to the Penguins even if Ceci healthy scratches his way out of the lineup.

Fantasy-wise, hopefully Ceci’s minutes don’t encroach on those of John Marino. In his rookie season, Marino produced a very respectable 26 points (6g-20a) in just 56 games. Ceci’s salary and term suggest that he should be used as a third-pairing defensemen, but there may be the temptation to use him in the top-4 as he was in Toronto (which didn’t go well). Hopefully that’s not the case, not only for Marino owners but also for Penguins fans. (oct18)

20. The Bruins were able to avoid arbitration with Matt Grzelcyk, signing him to a four-year contract with an AAV of $3.6 million.

Grzelcyk recorded a career-high 21 points (4g-17a) in 68 games last season. If that doesn’t seem significant, there’s the potential for a lot more given the Bruins’ situation in 2020-21. Because they haven’t really signed a replacement for Torey Krug, the point man for the first-unit power play is still up for grabs. That job should go to either Grzelcyk or Charlie McAvoy, neither of whom will provide the skills that Krug has. McAvoy is a first-unit shutdown defenseman who is an opposite-hand shot to Krug. It’s not a sure thing, but don’t be surprised if Grzelcyk becomes the power-play guy, which gives him potential sleeper value assuming the Bruins don’t sign or trade for another defenseman with power-play experience. Fantasy Take: Krug Picks the Blues (oct18)

21. Another consideration regarding the Bruins’ power play: David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand are currently recovering from offseason surgery. Depending on when the 2020-21 season starts and the actual time they need to recover, one or both may miss the start of the season. If that’s the case, Ondrej Kase or the recently-signed Craig Smith could be in line to take Pastrnak’s role on the power play, while Jake DeBrusk (unsigned at the moment) should take on Marchand’s role. Not having Pastrnak or Marchand on that first-unit power play could also factor into Grzelcyk’s potential power-play opportunity.

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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