Ramblings: Top Frozen Tools Searches – Brown, Danault, Bertuzzi, Mantha (Nov 1)

Ian Gooding

2020-11-01

Now that the NHL postseason, draft, and the thick of free agency have all come and gone, are you looking for something to fill the hockey void? You don't have to wait any longer. The 15th annual Fantasy Hockey Guide is now available! Tons of articles as well as projections, both team-by-team and on a spreadsheet, all aimed toward making your upcoming fantasy season a successful one. To get yours, order it here.

Something I should also mention that's important with this year's fantasy guide in particular: updates. The projections assume an 82-game season, but we know that the NHL probably won't get in that many games this season. So Dobber will do the math as soon as the NHL schedule is known so you can make the necessary adjustments on your end. You usually won't have to wait very long for these updates either. In case you're not familiar, you'll need to go back to your Downloads to obtain the updated copy.

Like he has in previous years, Dobber has also provided his lowdown on one player per team. Teaser alert: You may want to read his lowdown on Jake Virtanen, Canucks fans and keeper owners. 😊

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I haven't checked in with the top weekly Frozen Tools searches in a while. Now that a lot of the offseason activity has died down, let's check out a few of the names and why they might be in there.

Connor Brown

We write Fantasy Take articles on a lot of players because a change in scenery can result in a major change in value. One example of such a player who value changed significantly was Brown, who received opportunities in Ottawa that he was never going to receive in Toronto. Brown went from averaging 14-16 minutes per game in Toronto to 20 minutes per game last season in Ottawa, placing him in the top 20 in icetime among forwards. He also set career highs in points (43) and shots (173).

Expecting a continued major increase in points might be a big ask, though. The Sens signed Evgenii Dadonov during the offseason, and he's been a guy who has played with top-line talent (Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau). For the Senators, those big guns would be Brady Tkachuk and … I'm not sure at center? So at the same time, Brown won't necessarily be in for a huge dropoff, either. He was also a second-unit power-play mainstay in 2019-20, scoring just four points on the man advantage. On the other hand, perhaps he is due for more power-play time given his strong even-strength production (team-leading 36 EVP).

Fantasy Take: Dadonov is Dadon-off to Ottawa

Brown was likely a highly-searched player on Frozen Tools because he recently signed a three-year contract with an AAV of $3.6 million.

Phillip Danault

Young centers Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi might be getting all of the attention in Montreal. So it's easy to forget that Danault led all Canadiens' centers in points last season (47), and it's entirely possible that he outscores them both again this season. After significant contracts were handed out to Josh Anderson, Tyler Toffoli, and Brendan Gallagher, Danault will have the extra motivation of what will be a contract year for himself. He may be a searched player as fantasy owners compare him with the other mentioned Canadiens forwards.

Danault might be a fairly easy player to project in terms of scoring. Over the past two seasons he has scored 12 and 13 goals, while he has recorded 53 and 47 points (averaging 0.65 and 0.66 PTS/GP). It's also worth mentioning that he led all Canadiens' forwards in icetime in both the regular season (18:51) and postseason (19:34). Because of his ability defensively and in the faceoff circle (team-leading 728 FOW), his offensive zone starts are below 50 percent (45.9%), which limits his scoring upside beyond what we've seen.

The bottom line is that you probably know what you'll get from Danault. He might be a better real-life player than fantasy player, especially at a loaded center position. If the Habs let him leave via free agency next offseason, they'll feel the loss.

Tyler Bertuzzi

Bertuzzi's presence on this list is fairly straightforward: He signed a one-year contract for $3.5 million earlier in the week. Bertuzzi and the Wings were headed to arbitration not long after the contract was signed. With back-to-back 21-goal and 45+ point seasons, Bertuzzi had definitely earned a raise on his previous AAV of $1.4 million. With the one-year contract, he is betting on himself to have a big year, and that may happen since he is entering his fourth season.

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Whether Bertuzzi breaks out may depend on the health of Anthony Mantha more that it does for Dylan Larkin. Bertuzzi was a point-per-game player in the first quarter (20 points in 22 games) and the fourth quarter (eight points in seven games) in 2019-20. Mantha was out of the lineup for a significant portion of the time that Bertuzzi slumped to around a half point per game (20 points in 42 games).

Bertuzzi should also continue to be a fixture on the first-unit power play, at least for the 2020-21 season. After that, it may depend on how well prospects such as Lucas Raymond, Filip Zadina, and Joe Veleno develop. This is something to watch if you are investing in Bertuzzi in the long term.  

Anthony Mantha

While I'm discussing Bertuzzi, I may as well cover Mantha as well. Mantha has yet to sign his RFA contract, which we will no doubt break down when it happens. In his Capped: Top 200 Free Agent Salary Projections, Alex MacLean had Mantha projected to receive a cap hit of $5.6 million annually. He also had Bertuzzi earning just over $4 million, so there could be a little more space to make Mantha work for the Wings soon. Since the Wings have $15 million in cap space and really only Mantha to take care of, it might be about trying to find the right term.

If Mantha can stay healthy for a full season, he has Top 100 Roto Rankings potential. In fact, he was in the rankings early in the 2019-20 season before I had to pull him out because of injuries. Over his four full NHL seasons, Mantha has only reached 70 games once. Yet 2019-20 was the season in which he appeared to put together his potential of skill and size (6-5, 234 lbs.) With 38 points in just 43 games, Mantha scored at a 0.88 PTS/GP pace. That's a pace that was similar to Matthew Tkachuk, Mathew Barzal, William Nylander, and Ryan O'Reilly.

There's reason to consider drafting Mantha not long after these players. In his pinch-hitting appearance in the Ramblings recently, injury expert Brennan Des pointed out that Mantha's injuries have been more chance occurrence-related that having to do with a physical style. Mantha did not fight at all during 2019-20, and he has never recorded 100 hits in a season. That's a solid counter-argument to the injury-prone label, but it's also a reason not to naturally overvalue him in bangers leagues because he is so big.  

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Speaking of the Red Wings, I found this very useful Halloween-related fact today.

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To my American friends, get out and vote!

For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

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