Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Cam Robinson, and Dobber

1. Young centers Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi might be getting all of the attention in Montreal. So it’s easy to forget that Phillip Danault led all Canadiens’ centers in points last season (47), and it’s entirely possible that he outscores them both again this season. After significant contracts were handed out to Josh Anderson, Tyler Toffoli, and Brendan Gallagher, Danault will have the extra motivation of what will be a contract year for himself. He may be a searched player as fantasy owners compare him with the other mentioned Canadiens forwards.

Danault might be a fairly easy player to project in terms of scoring. Over the past two seasons he has scored 12 and 13 goals, while he has recorded 53 and 47 points (averaging 0.65 and 0.66 PTS/GP). It’s also worth mentioning that he led all Canadiens’ forwards in icetime in both the regular season (18:51) and postseason (19:34). Because of his ability defensively and in the faceoff circle (team-leading 728 FOW), his offensive zone starts are below 50 percent (45.9%), which limits his scoring upside beyond what we’ve seen.

The bottom line is that you probably know what you’ll get from Danault. He might be a better real-life player than fantasy player, especially at a loaded center position. If the Habs let him leave via free agency next offseason, they’ll feel the loss. (nov1)

2. One player whose fantasy value I wonder about is Adam Boqvist. Our Dobber Hockey guide has him on the top PP unit for the Blackhawks and I think that should be the case as well. I just want to be a bit careful about what to expect if that does happen. The entire Blackhawks defense corps had 22 power-play points last year combined. The year before, that number was 32. The year before, it was 37. None of those three seasons saw a single defenseman reach 20 PPPs, and only Erik Gustafsson in 2018-19 had more than 15. Even if Boqvist were to step onto PP1 the first game of the season and stay there all year, 20 PPPs should be seen more as the upside rather than the expectation. (nov3)

3. Nostradamus time: John Klingberg could find himself on the trade market in 2021.

If Dallas is way out of things by the deadline next year, I wouldn’t be shocked to see the team dangle Klingberg to the market. The right-shot, top pair defender has owned one of the best value deals for years. He’s set to make just 4.25M for another two seasons and then will want a massive deal to make up for lost time.

There would be a hoard of teams lining up for a year-plus of Klingberg on that contract. And they’d be willing to pay. It would also open up a spot for Miro Heiskanen to lock down the top power-play job. (nov4)

4. I plan to have a November update of the Top 100 Roto Rankings at around the middle of the month. I honestly didn’t think I’d be making a ton of updates for November after a lot in October. However, after crunching some numbers based on the Fantasy Guide projections for both skaters and goalies, there’s going to be some more significant changes for November.

With that in mind, it could be risky picking Elvis Merzlikins in the top 100. It has nothing to do with the goaltending environment, which John Tortorella has made as user-friendly as possible with his vocal preference for defense first and shot blocking. It has to do with the competition and who the coach considers to be the starter at the moment. So it may take some time and you may need to be patient, but Elvis will eventually be the starter.

You may remember Merzlikins going on an absolute tear when he took over as the starting goalie from an injured Joonas Korpisalo in early January. In spite of that, Tortorella stuck with the old axiom that a starter shouldn’t lose his job to injury, choosing to go with Korpisalo for most of the postseason. It’s likely that Torts turns back to Korpisalo to start the season. Yet Merzlikins is the better goalie, and proved it last season with his 2.35 GAA and .923 SV% compared to Korpisalo’s 2.60 GAA and .911 SV%. Elvis also earns more money ($4 million to $2.8 million), which means management likely considers him to be the guy over the two-year period of both contracts. (nov6)

5. I’m not here to question William Nylander's role on the Leafs, or whether he should be traded, or even his scoring ability. And yes, I’m aware that his 31 goals was a career high and was second on the Leafs. His shooting percentage was also a career high 15.7 percent, so it’s possible that his goal total could drop a little next season. But that’s not the point I wish to emphasize here.

With just nine hits in 2019-20 and no more than 25 hits in any one season, Nylander is Johnny Gaudreau-lite. Yes, I’m aware that Nylander finished with one more point than Gaudreau in 2019-20, but that was Gaudreau in a down season versus Nylander in a career season (so far). Remove the hits and Nylander should be a top-100 player in any non-bangers format. (nov7)

6. In case you missed it, Gustav Nyquist will need 5-6 months to recover from shoulder surgery. With no start date announced for the 2020-21 season, more players may decide to opt for surgery that they have been postponing for a while. Ben Bishop and Tyler Seguin are two more examples of players undergoing surgery with a similar recovery timeline to Nyquist’s.

If Nyquist misses 3-4 months because of the surgery, it’s possible that the Blue Jackets take a run at one of the remaining free agents on a short-term deal. Mike Hoffman tops the list here, although there are a host of lesser names that have been left out in the cold as teams are financially constrained at the moment.

With Nyquist out of the lineup, Alexandre Texier seems certain to take on major minutes. Texier was already on a line with Dubois and Oliver Bjorkstrand during the postseason, so he could be one to watch when the season finally starts. (nov6)

7. The Rangers avoided arbitration with Ryan Strome, signing him to a two-year contract with a cap hit of $4.5 million. After failing to meet expectations in Long Island and Edmonton, Strome has found a home in Manhattan, scoring a career-high 59 points while slotting in as Artemi Panarin‘s most frequent center and playing over 19 minutes per game. His chemistry with Panarin allows the Rangers to spread their scoring onto at least two lines, with Mika Zibanejad centering the other top line.

With the kind of scoring depth that they possess, the Rangers have no reason to rush youngsters Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kakko, Vitali Kravtsov, or Filip Chytil. The 27-year-old Strome may not be the long-term answer as a top-6 center with Chytil developing, and the short-term nature of the contract shows this. If Strome moves on (and there’s a very real possibility that he’s left unprotected in the Seattle draft), don’t count on him holding the same level of value with another team that he has with the Rangers. (nov6)

On Friday the Rangers also signed Brendan Lemieux, their final RFA, to a two-year contract with a cap hit of $1.55 million. Lemieux probably shouldn’t be on your radar in pure scoring leagues with all the young talent above him on the Blueshirts, but he is worthy of consideration in bangers leagues because of his ability to reach double-digits in both hits and penalty minutes.  (nov7)

8. The Kings are the envy of the league as far as prospects are concerned. But they have a ton of cap space and the lack of moves this off season indicates to me that they’re going to wait to run out the contracts of Jeff Carter and Dustin Brown (after the 2021-22 season) before really making a push with the kids.

When looking at the contracts the Bolts could move, Ondrej Palat has a contract that would run out at the same time as Carter/Brown, and Alex Killorn has one that would run out the year after. Even if they bring up a couple of the kids in 2020-21, their ELCs would run out after the Brown/Carter/Palat contracts finish, or at the same time as Killorn. Either way, they can take on money for the next 2-3 years without it hurting their long-term financial picture, while filling the cupboard even more with the picks/prospects necessary for taking on such a contract in this revenue environment.

There may be an internal cap that makes all of this pointless but there are so few teams in a position to trade with Tampa Bay that options are limited, and Los Angeles is one of them. (nov5)

9. Ryan Pulock was re-signed by the Islanders to a two-year deal, carrying an average annual value of $5M. For fantasy, this keeps him with the Islanders – barring a weird trade, I guess – for the foreseeable future. Devon Toews being shipped to Colorado obviously means good things for Pulock’s power-play minutes, but if the team still splits into two power-play units, then there may not be a huge amount of PPTOI upside. Nick Leddy is still around for mop-up duties and Noah Dobson looks ready to (hopefully) step into Toews’s role. It could be a situation where Dobson just takes Toews’s PP minutes and not much changes.

In the fantasy game, there are not a lot of players who can produce across the board than Pulock: double-digit goals in two of the last three years, triple-digit hits and blocks in two of the last three years, while averaging about 10 PPPs a year. We should remember that he has never hit 30 assists, 40 points, 200 shots, or 15 PPPs in a single season. Not saying he can’t, and I’m nowhere close to making projections yet. I would just say hold off on his extension coupled with a Toews trade meaning big things for his fantasy value. (nov5)

10. The Stars are going to be hurting to begin 2020-21 whenever that should occur. The team released a statement on Tuesday alerting the world that Tyler Seguin and Ben Bishop both underwent surgery in late October and are expected to be out for at least five months. That brings us to late-March on the rosy side of the projections.

Jamie Benn looked rejuvenated in the summer playoffs, but his play has consistently slipped in recent years as he has crossed onto the shitty side of 30. Alex Radulov is 34. Joe Pavelski is 36. The team is old and will need to rely on the younger players if they want to compete next season.

That means more minutes and more opportunities for guys like Denis Gurianov and Roope Hintz. Which is good for those owners. But if the surrounded talent can’t elevate to previous levels, I expect it’ll be a long year in Big D.

Of note, that labrum tear on Seguin is very concerning. That injury and subsequent surgery have toasted more than a few careers – Ryan Kesler and Jarkko Ruutu among them. I'd be worried as a Seguin owner. (nov4)

AVAILABLE NOW!

The 2020-21 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide is now available in the Dobber Shop! Grab your copy now to start perusing projections, depth charts, player profiles, content for cap leagues, and a whole lot more. It will be updated through to the start of the regular season, whenever that will be, so don’t worry about getting recent information. Settle in and get started on the 2020-21 campaign!

11. The scouting arm of DobberProspects dropped its top-100 ranking for the 2021 NHL Entry Draft. See it here… (nov4)

12. The Red Wings are turning the ship around, but if Joe Veleno doesn’t step in as a 2C, this team still doesn’t have a second scoring line for Robby Fabbri to play on. Slotting determines value for a lot of players, but that is magnified when there are few good players on the roster. He still has a lot of holes defensively so trying to stick him with bad players is probably going to lead to a lot of unhappy nights at the rink for coach Jeff Blashill.

On a related note, Is this the year that Jordan Kyrou finally breaks out, or will he be stuffed down the roster? Will he be on the roster at all? Once upon a time, I thought Fabbri/Kyrou were the future at the top of the roster for the St. Louis Blues. Now, both futures are up in the air. Prospects, man. (nov3)

13. The Panthers have signed defenseman Mackenzie Weegar to a three-year contract with a cap hit of $3.25 million. Weegar generated a bit of interest in fantasy leagues in 2019-20, scoring seven goals and 18 points in just 45 games. That put him at a similar points-per-game pace to the likes of Devon Toews, Dmitry Orlov, and Jacob Trouba.

Weegar's  most frequent defensive partner for those games and the Panthers’ return-to-play games was Aaron Ekblad, so the ice time should be there. With almost no power-play time, Weegar’s offensive upside will probably remain limited for the time being, though. (nov7)

14. Something hit me: what Jakub Voracek starts the year on the third line? We saw Joel Farabee skate on the second line in the playoffs, but I have to think that as long as Oskar Lindblom is set for the 2020-21 season, we’ll see Lindblom-Kevin Hayes–Travis Konecny back together.

The assumption could be a top line of Claude Giroux–Sean Couturier-Voracek, but if Joel Farabee really pulls it together, is it that far-fetched to see Voracek bumped in favour of Giroux-Couturier-Farabee? That seems eminently possible as Voracek’s ice time has been pulled back for a couple years now. Elsewhere, it is really hard to see James van Riemsdyk having much season-long fantasy value. (nov3)

15. On Josh Ho-Sang. A very skilled player and when he played in the NHL in 2016-17 he was excellent. Excellent! And that may have been the worst thing for his ego because he felt he pretty much had a roster spot locked up for 2017-18. When he didn’t – we started seeing more signs of the attitude.

The Isles called Ho-Sang back up and he was excellent again. Between the two seasons he had 22 points in 43 games. Not just anyone can produce that well right off the bat! But he flapped his mouth again, and in 2018-19 he barely saw NHL action. That pushed the trade request. The team’s failure to move him was no doubt a blow to Ho-Sang’s ego. And now signing this two-way deal for the minimum at the NHL level is another blow.

So now we’ll see. He’s 24 years old and he knows that if he doesn’t make the team he’s going to clear waivers (because he already did last year). He knows that 25-year-olds rarely get a shot, and 26-year-olds almost never do. So it’s now or never. The Isles are too deep for him to make the team out of camp, so his goal should be to make a huge impression and ensure that he’s the first guy called up. He’s fighting for his career, does he have any fight in him? I’m a fan of the talent he is, so I hope he’s working hard. (nov2)

16. Alex Galchenyuk shouldn’t be written off. Two seasons ago he had 41 points. Three seasons ago he had 51 points. He’s still just 26 years old. He is a Band-Aid Boy, but when he plays I still think there’s a 60-point guy in there. Not this year with the Senators, but at least he can pull an Anthony Duclair and rebound his value back up to a better pay. If he can play 75 games, score 20 goals and get 45 points (around where I have him) then that’s a great first step to redemption. The Senators may have picked themselves up a steal there, but I don’t like how this signing keeps one or two of Josh Norris or Alex Formenton out of the lineup this season. I don’t mind if it’s Tim Stuetzle who is held back for one year, though. It will only be a partial year and I think the extra year of control would be worth more to the team than getting the kid to join the roster right away. (nov2)

17. Sami Niku of the Jets also signed for a low salary ($725k AAV), but as a one-way deal. So he gets the same amount regardless of where he plays. I don’t have Niku getting into the lineup on a regular basis again this year, but he’ll get in there a lot more often than he did last year. He’s not very strong defensively and Coach Paul Maurice prefers giving the offensive zone starts to Neal Pionk and Josh Morrissey. (nov2)

18. Julius Honka had been holding out for a trade and/or a one-way contract and wound up playing in Europe for his troubles. Last year in Finland he had 15 points in 46 games. His younger brother Anttoni, also a defenseman and drafted two rounds lower than Julius, had 19 points in 43 games with the same team. Honka signed for the minimum ($700k) and only gets $90k if sent to the minors. I guess the thinking is that he’ll be easier for the team to trade if he were to get off to a reasonable start. Regardless, I don’t have high hopes for his future as a potential fantasy asset and I have him projected for the big four points this season. (nov2)

19. The elite players are getting paid – Alex Pietrangelo, Torey Krug, Jacob Markstrom, etc. But the players who aren’t elite are being pushed to the bottom of the salary scale. Tons of players are signing for the minimum and we’re constantly seeing remarks from those heavily involved in analyzing hockey contracts about how a latest contract comes in lower than they estimated. At this point, even for Mike Hoffman, we can take our estimates and dial it back about 20% or more. It’s the nature of things this year. And the teams who didn’t see this coming and overspent three weeks ago are kicking themselves, such as Montreal with Josh Anderson, Washington with Brenden Dillon and Justin Schultz. Sure, the latter two deals made sense at the time, but if they didn’t pay those guys that money, how much would another team pay them? I suspect they would still be available now, or will have settled for half of what they actually signed for. (nov2)

20. If Anthony Mantha can stay healthy for a full season, he has Top 100 Roto Rankings potential. In fact, he was in the rankings early in the 2019-20 season before I had to pull him out because of injuries. Over his four full NHL seasons, Mantha has only reached 70 games once. Yet 2019-20 was the season in which he appeared to put together his potential of skill and size (6-5, 234 pounds) With 38 points in just 43 games, Mantha scored at a 0.88 PTS/GP pace. That’s a pace that was similar to Matthew Tkachuk, Mathew Barzal, William Nylander, and Ryan O’Reilly.

There’s reason to consider drafting Mantha not long after these players. In his pinch-hitting appearance in the Ramblings recently, injury expert Brennan Des pointed out that Mantha’s injuries have been more chance occurrence-related that having to do with a physical style. Mantha did not fight at all during 2019-20, and he has never recorded 100 hits in a season. That’s a solid counter-argument to the injury-prone label, but it’s also a reason not to naturally overvalue him in bangers leagues because he is so big. (nov1)

21. We write Fantasy Take articles on a lot of players because a change in scenery can result in a major change in value. One example of such a player who value changed significantly was Connor Brown, who received opportunities in Ottawa that he was never going to receive in Toronto. Brown went from averaging 14-16 minutes per game in Toronto to 20 minutes per game last season in Ottawa, placing him in the top 20 in icetime among forwards. He also set career highs in points (43) and shots (173).

Expecting a continued major increase in points might be a big ask, though. The Sens signed Evgenii Dadonov during the offseason, and he’s been a guy who has played with top-line talent (Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau). For the Senators, those big guns would be Brady Tkachuk and … I’m not sure at center? So at the same time, Brown won’t necessarily be in for a huge dropoff, either. He was also a second-unit power-play mainstay in 2019-20, scoring just four points on the man advantage. On the other hand, perhaps he is due for more power-play time given his strong even-strength production (team-leading 36 EVP). (nov1)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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