Ramblings: Bubble Keeper Week Begins! E. Staal, Pearson, Hornqvist, Jost (Nov 8)
Ian Gooding
2020-11-08
With free agent signings coming to a standstill and the dead of winter about to hit, now seems like the right time for Bubble Keeper Week. As we have the past two seasons, each of our featured articles this week will feature a few of these players that you might not be sure what to do with.
In today's Ramblings, along with next Saturday's and Sunday's Ramblings, I'll list a few players on my keeper team that are in this spot. It'll be young and old, as well as forwards, defensemen, and goalies. I won't discuss what I'll actually be doing with these players, since this league has a very specific set of rules that are probably not worth explaining here. What I hope to do is provide you with some information that might help you make your own decision, though.
Today I'll kick things off with four forwards at differing points in their careers. As well, two of these forwards will be playing on new teams in 2020-21.
Eric Staal (76% Fantrax ownership)
I can remember Staal appearing in last season's Bubble Keeper Week banner ad, which probably means he was one of the best options on the list. Fast forward a year later, and Staal's point production actually improved in 2019-20 (0.71 PTS/GP) from 2018-19 (0.64 PTS/GP). Shipped out as part of the large roster turnover in Minnesota, Staal now gets to join a Buffalo squad that is buzzing after also adding top-drawer free agent Taylor Hall.
Fantasy Impact: Straight Up – Staal for Johansson
Moving from a first-line center role in Minnesota to a second-line center role in Buffalo might not normally seem like a positive. However, the first line in Minny wasn't particularly strong, while Buffalo's second line shapes up to look like Staal centering Jeff Skinner (who he is familiar with from his Carolina days) and Victor Olofsson (or maybe Sam Reinhart?) So without getting too granular, this is probably a lateral move for Staal.
Age is a factor, as Staal is now 36 years old (time sure passes). One area where the aging curve has already kicked in is with the shot total. A 250+ SOG shooter during his first five seasons, Staal sunk to a career-low 113 shots in 2019-20, so his goal total (19) was buoyed by a career-high 16.8 SH% and 11.3 5-on-5 SH%. Even with some decent linemates, getting to 20 goals might be a challenge.
One bonus area where Staal can still provide an added boost is in faceoffs. He led the Wild with 495 faceoff wins, which was just outside of the top 30 in the league. He hasn't finished below 49% in faceoff win percentage in any of the past nine seasons, so his skills in the faceoff circle don't appear to be declining.
If you're planning to keep Staal, you're doing so with the hopes that he maintains his point totals from recent seasons. Like many in the 35+ age bracket, Staal has the added motivation of playing in a contract year. There seems to be enough left in the tank for one more contract in the 2021 offseason, assuming that he doesn't retire.
Tanner Pearson (79% Fantrax ownership)
The top four Canucks forwards are as follows: Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser, and Bo Horvat. #5 is Pearson, who is a notch below those names but is firmly in that #5 slot. Acquired for Erik Gudbranson in one of Jim Benning's better trades, Pearson has given the Canucks reliable second-line scoring and finally given Horvat a steady winger with some name value.
Since joining the Canucks, Pearson has scored 31 goals and 59 points in 90 games, which works out to be a 28-goal and 54-point pace over a full 82-game season. Even with some good seasons on a strong Kings team, Pearson set career highs in points (45) and power-play points (10) in 2019-20, his first full season with the Canucks. Pearson also tied for the league lead with Sebastian Aho, Gustav Nyquist, and Alex Ovechkin in empty-net goals (6), which had a lot to do with his line's important role late in a game when the Canucks were holding onto a lead. He did not score any the season before, when he scored 18 goals split between three teams (LA, Pittsburgh Vancouver).
Pearson is a UFA after the 2020-21 season, yet there's been very little discussion as to whether the Canucks will re-sign him. The contracts of Alex Edler, Brandon Sutter, and Sven Baertschi will be coming off the books, and a Loui Eriksson buyout will finally make mathematical sense for the Canucks. However, tons of room will be needed for two important RFAs in Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes – perhaps close to $10 million per season for each. The Canucks have been squeezed by both the salary cap and by COVID, so there may not be a lot left to offer Pearson.
Overall, Pearson should be able to at least replicate his scoring pace from previous seasons in 2020-21. After that, it will depend where he lands.
Patric Hornqvist (65% Fantrax ownership)
I wouldn't write Hornqvist off completely. In fact, I think he's best suited for daily leagues (which I don't mention here very often). My reasoning is that he won't play a full season, as he hasn't played more than 70 games in a season since 2015-16. However, when he is in the lineup, he'll be used on Florida's first-unit power-play (at least to start) since the Panthers lack proven options on the right side. In other words, don't rely on him for a full season, but he's worth slotting into your lineup when he's available.
Fantasy Take: Hornqvist Shipped to Florida for Matheson, Sceviour
Hornqvist has been productive in general when in the lineup, scoring at a 50-point pace in 2019-20 in spite of playing less than 16 minutes (15:56) per game. However, his power-play point total (7 PPP) was relatively low in spite of averaging first-unit minutes alongside the likes of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. The good news is that there isn't much blocking the way toward those same minutes in Florida. However, someone like Owen Tippett is more of a long-term solution there, even if the 33-year-old Hornqvist has three years left on his contract.
Prior to scoring 18 and 17 goals over the past two seasons, Hornqvist had been a shoo-in for 20 goals, reaching that mark in eight of the previous nine seasons. Not surprisingly, he had taken at least 200 shots in each of those eight seasons. Fewer goals over the previous two seasons has resulted from taking fewer shots (and playing fewer games), as Hornqvist has not reached 200 shots over those last two seasons. Do the math, and he's been a remarkably consistent shooter at just under 10 percent over his career.
Hornqvist still has some value in bangers leagues, as he finished fourth on the Penguins with 107 hits. He has recorded triple-digit hit totals in each of his last five seasons after never reaching the 100-hit mark in his first five full seasons. It looks like his game evolved to become more physical as he reached his late 20s, although wear and tear might reduce that number as he approaches his mid-30s.
Obviously there isn't a ton of keeper value here, as Hornqvist isn't even listed in Dobber's Top 300 Keeper League Skaters. Any fantasy league strategies involving Hornqvist should therefore be very short-term in nature.
Tyson Jost (57% Fantrax ownership)
You've probably been disappointed if you invested early in the 2016 10th overall pick and former World Junior standout, hoping that he'd become a key offensive piece on an up-and-coming Avalanche squad. In three (mostly) full NHL seasons, Jost has yet to reach the 30-point mark, although he's consistently produced between 22 and 26 points (between 0.34 and 0.37 points per game). The Avalanche adding Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakovsky, Joonas Donskoi, and Valeri Nichushkin from other teams has only hurt Jost's value, although he hasn't grabbed a top-6 spot based on merit either.
Jost (12:46 TOI, 30% PPTOI) has shown he could benefit from increased icetime and opportunity, though. Nazem Kadri missed the final month of the 2019-20 regular season because of injury. During the first seven games of Kadri's absence, Jost failed to record a point, extending a pointless streak to nine games. After that, he caught fire, recording seven points (3g-4a) over his last nine games while averaging 17:37 TOI and 72% PPTOI. When Kadri was back for the postseason, however, Jost regressed back to just a single point in 12 games while averaging just 11:19 TOI and 4.7% PPTOI.
Entering his fourth NHL season, the possibility for improved production is definitely there for Jost. However, it's difficult to think he will receive the opportunity needed for a significant breakout soon unless the Avalanche face more injury issues. Long term, he may be better off on another team with fewer scoring options to compete with. Don't be surprised if he's left unprotected for the Seattle expansion draft and if the Kraken decide he's worth a shot, as he will still only be 23 years old at that point.
Jost's tepid production (so far) should serve a cautionary tale to keeper leaguers and prospect watchers that the excitement and shine from top-10 draft picks can wear off in a few years. How patient you are with Jost on your keeper team should depend on how deep your roster is. If you need him to take a big step this coming season, you're probably better off looking for a replacement.
*
Finally… I usually stick to sports here, but I'm going to step away from that. Congratulations to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris for their election as US President and Vice-President, respectively. Honestly, it warms my heart to see so many people dancing in the street and excited for the future after what has been a mostly grim 2020. No matter what side of the political spectrum you are on, I hope this is a positive first step toward uniting a fractured country. As a Canadian, I wish all the best to what is now our biggest hockey rival (except when they are playing Canada, of course!)
For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.