Ramblings –Thoughts on the NHL’s posturing, and a look at what’s in store for the remaining RFAs (Nov 30)

Dobber

2020-11-30

The 15th annual Fantasy Hockey Guide is out and ready for download! Draft List too! Updated up to the Johnny Boychuk news. To my knowledge, this is the only fantasy hockey guide available right now. So if you're hankerin' for a fantasy guide and haven't tried mine yet, I guess now is as good a time as any.

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The owners vs. player stalemate concerns me. Both sides have already hammered out a new CBA that takes things through the next five years and the owners already want to renegotiate for this year. This is just six or eight owners pressuring Gary Bettman for help, but it's nonsensical. And on so many levels. And I say this because the NHL has to proceed regardless, since the new CBA says that lockouts and strikes are not allowed. For the good of the game, there will be no stoppages for no tangible reason. And since this was negotiated during a pandemic – they can't use the current pandemic as a reason either. So at the very worst, all they are doing is delaying the season until February 1 and the season will be 48 games long. And those owners know that the players can't accept a further rollback because it opens the door for…future requests for rollbacks. So all this posturing is about those 12 extra games, when those 12 games will mean a lot to fans and maintaining interest in the sport. The longer they posture, the more likely this thing goes down to 48 games. The long-term impact of this will cost those six or eight owners more than the net-loss of playing 12 more games.

For the first time that I can ever remember, the players worked with the owners. They conceded, without any pushback, a portion of their salary and agreed to a cap freeze for two years (and a tiny, tiny increase in Year 3). The NHL and NHLPA held hands and sung Kumbaya. Unprecedented. The league was about to recover as best as possible. But now the owners are spoiling this unprecedented partnership when no good will come of it. The players won't concede because it would state that they can be pushed into future concessions and changes. And if the owners continue to pursue this, then the season will start a month late with 12 fewer games, further damaging fan interest. I'm still shocked that this is happening. Leave it to greed to supersede common sense.

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Here's the sitch on some of the key restricted free agents still left…

Casey Mittelstadt, Lawrence Pilut (Buffalo Sabres) – As we know, Pilut has signed to play in the KHL for the next two seasons, which puts him at the age of 26 when his contract is up. The Sabres qualified him, implying that they still want his rights in two years. I think he'll give the NHL one more go, but not until that time. And since he'll be a UFA the following year, making an impact would be very fruitful for his career…I suspect the delay with Buffalo signing Mittelstadt is not contract amount, but the terms. I think he fears that he won't get into the NHL this season (and rightfully so), and may not in the next season either. I think he's angling for a one-way deal. He won't get it, but maybe he wants it for the second year of a two-year deal. Either way, the Sabres have the room to sign him for a low-dollar deal so I think this will get done shortly after the season's start date is announced.

Dylan Strome (Chicago Blackhawks) – Strome is going through a change in agents, and the Blackhawks remain committed to getting him under contract. I think this one can go either long-term or short-term. If it's short term, he's probably looking at something close to $3.5M AAV for one or two years. Alex MacLean, in his September cap projections article, has him at $4.7M. But given the two months that have since passed, we have seen contract signings come in lower and lower as more weeks go by.

Vladislav Kamenev (Colorado Avalanche) – Kamenev is actually still owned in one of my leagues and he's owned in a lot of the deeper dynasties out there. He has signed in the KHL for two years and unless he takes the league by storm, I don't see an NHL future here. He'll be 26 years old after that contract. The Avalanche did qualify him, however. So they want to hold onto his rights just in case.

Pierre-Luc Dubois (Columbus Blue Jackets) – The Blue Jackets have the cap space to sign a big-ticket contract, so this one has been more about fine-tuning it. I think he's angling for six or seven years at $7 million or slightly more. I think the club is fine with the term, but under the lower cap climate would like to get him for $6M. He is probably agreeable to that – as long as it's for four years, which takes him to his UFA year. Naturally they would like to buy into some of those UFA seasons if they can, but if the term is four years then they probably want the contract even lower. The difference here isn't vast, but I suspect this will take right up to training camp to get settled. Alex MacLean, in his September cap projections article, has him at $6.7M. Again though, that number will likely come in lower given the trend of the last month or two.

Mathew Barzal (New York Islanders) – The Islanders have less than $4M to play with, but Johnny Boychuk's recent retirement will allow them to place him on LTIR. I don't pretend to know what goes on behind the scenes, I only know what I would do if I was in a management position there. And what I would do is convince my injured guy to unofficially retire so he can be placed on LTIR, maybe promise some post-retirement perks. We'll know if I'm right if Boychuk gets a scouting, development or front office job with the Isles in a couple of years. Regardless, his LTIR placement gives the Isles a total of $6M to sign Barzal. MacLean has him valued at $8M so that's still a little shy. The Islanders, of course, want to get this done, but they have to shuffle some paperwork to make it happen. When a season is officially announced, things will start moving again. The team will most certainly move Andrew Ladd to the minors, to free up another $1.075M. Doing the same with Thomas Hickey would give them a similar amount. It's going to be tight. Things would be so much easier if they didn't have so many bad contracts. I think a deal gets done for something just under $8M, but training camp will begin before it happens.

Alexander Volkov, Anthony Cirelli, Mathieu Joseph, Erik Cernak (Tampa Bay Lightning) – The defending Cup Champs are in cap hell right now but that's okay because, well, they're the Cup Champs. Currently over the cap by about $2M, they still have three free agents to sign, including an extremely important one in Cirelli (who I think could win a Selke one day). The only way out of this is to move Tyler Johnson. Free and clear. No salary retention, no taking salary back – they need to dump him. It would sure help if he was still good. But his play has eroded to the point where he's not even a defensive strength anymore, forget about offense. But what team wants to be saddled with $5M per season for each of the next four years? GM BriseBois is holding off on giving up high draft picks along with Johnson to get it done, but I don't think that even a first rounder would do it. Maybe a first and a third, from two different years, to a team like Detroit or Ottawa? Maybe it costs two firsts? You can see why BriseBois is balking. But they can't go into next season without Cirelli. He has to decide – are owning two firsts (or whatever the high cost) more important than owning a Yanni Gourde or an Ondrej Palat? There would be takers for either of those two, especially after Gourde's postseason. They could be moved without having to attach any picks. But with the team already being over the cap by $2M, I suspect that one of them would have to be traded along with Johnson anyway. MacLean has Cirelli at $5.8M in his cap projection, but I think they can get him under that $5M mark as he gives them a break.

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Jack Roslovic (Winnipeg Jets) – I think this negotiation is more about role and less about money. I think Roslo is tired of being buried and wants a legit shot with legit top players. With Bryan Little going on LTIR, the Jets will have about $4.5M with which they can exceed the cap. MacLean has his value at about $2.5M and the team may come in at that on something shorter term. Roslovic is looking for a change of scenery, and I truly believe that the team is looking to accommodate him. This deal will get done, likely shortly after a season is announced.

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Next week –Jesper Bratt, Oliver Kylington, Vince Dunn, Ethan Bear, Henrik Borgstrom, Aleksi Saarela,

Samuel Montembeault, Philippe Myers, Luke Kunin, Jonathan Dahlen

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See you next Monday.

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