Top 10 Players Who Will Reach 70-point Pace for First Time

Tom Collins

2020-11-30

One of my favourite articles to write each year is to look at players who could potentially hit 70 points for the first time.

Usually, about a third of all players reaching 70 points are hitting that mark for the first time. With COVID-19 cutting last season short, there weren't as many 70-point players as usual. However, if you look at a 70-point pace (minimum 40 games) to account for the missed games, you can see there were plenty of new faces to hit that mark. 

Last saw a variety of players reach the 70-point pace: The out-of-nowhere player who hits magic in a top-six role (Bryan Rust), the underappreciated veteran (Tomas Tatar), the defensemen we always knew could make it (Roman Josi), the "are you sure he hasn't done it before" (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins), the budding superstar (Andrei Svechnikov), the hot-shot rookie (Cale Makar) and the fourth-year breakout (Travis Konecny).

On top of those players, we also witnessed Kyle Connor, J.T. Miller, Anthony Mantha, William Nylander and Dougie Hamilton reach the 70-point pace for the first time.

We don't know how long this upcoming campaign will be, so instead of focusing on players who could hit 70 points, below are 10 players who could reach a 70-point pace for the first time. That's the equivalent of 0.85 points-per-game, or roughly 51 points in a 60-game season or 41 points in a 48-game season.

10. Neal Pionk

Pionk finished last season with 0.63 points-per-game, but that probably would have been higher if he had started the season on the top power play. At the start of 2019-20, the Jets were trying Josh Morrisey to quarterback the power-play. Before Nov. 27 (when Pionk firmly took control of the top PP duties), Pionk had 11 points in 24 games (0.45 points-per-game). After that date, he had 34 points in 47 games (0.72 points-per-game). This choice is more of a long-shot, but he doesn't have a lot of competition for that spot.

9. Pavel Buchnevich

Last year, I listed Travis Konecny as a long-shot to get 70 points. He had never reached 50 points and wasn't on the top power-play unit, so it was a bit of a stretch. However, sometimes the long-shots pay off. This is another long-shot pick, but there's a lot of boom/bust potential with the Rangers forward this year. He played quite frequently with Mika Zibanejad last year (and on the top line with Artemi Panarin in the postseason). There's a good chance that Buchnevich will get a top-six role this year and possibly push Ryan Strome off the top power-play unit. However, there's just as good a chance that Alexis Lafreniere pushes Buchnevich out of that top-six spot and onto the third line with no chance at the top power-play spot. Like I said, boom or bust.

8. Nikolaj Ehlers

Most may believe this is an easy call as Ehlers came pretty close to hitting the 0.85 points-per-game last season with 0.82 PPG (58 points in 71 games). He's reached at least 0.73 PPG in three of the last four campaigns. However, there's a couple of things holding Ehlers back. While his most common linemate last year was Blake Wheeler, he also played more with Jack Roslovic and Andrew Copp than the other talented Jets. Ehlers is on the second power-play unit, on the ice for less than 30 per cent of Winnipeg's power-play minutes. He also only sees 16:31 of action per night. I'd like to see at least one of those dramatically improve before I believe he's a shoo-in for a 70-point pace.

7. Rasmus Dahlin

Many believe that Dahlin will be an 80-point defenseman someday, and with the changes that Buffalo has made this offseason, he could make a big push toward that this season. Dahlin is one of two Sabres on this list that should benefit greatly from the addition of Taylor Hall. Dahlin is already playing 70.1 per cent of all of Buffalo's power-play minutes. There's a realistic chance that the Buffalo power play will be top-10 this year, which will help Dahlin immensely.

6. Kasperi Kapanen

While Kapanen had the opportunity to play a top-six role in Toronto, he was never able to make it stick for a full season. Now he has a great opportunity in Pittsburgh. GM Jim Rutherford confirmed a couple of weeks back that Kapanen would play on a line with Sidney Crosby (and by extension, Jake Guentzel). While Kapanen plays a different style than Patric Hornqvist, the latter's departure to Florida could give Kapanen a shot at the top power-play unit as well.  

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5. Jason Zucker

Like Kapanen, Pittsburgh gave up quite a bit last season to get Zucker, and he immediately paid dividends. With 12 points in 15 games with the Pens, Zucker had a 0.8 points-per-game after the trade. He played with Crosby in the regular season and Evgeni Malkin in the postseason and was a feature on the top power-play unit in the playoffs.

4. Oskar Lindblom

Before he was forced to sit out the season while battling bone cancer, Lindblom was on a roll. Last year, Lindblom was on the ice for 388 minutes at five-on-five. According to Natural Stat Trick, Sean Couturier was on the ice for 329 of those minutes (or about 85 per cent of all of Lindblom's 5-on-5 time). His next two most common linemates were Travis Konecny and Jakub Voracek. If you want someone to reach a career high, playing with the team's top players is a good way to get it done. Lindblom's ice time was also up almost four minutes a night compared to the previous season, while his power-play time was up almost a minute per game. If he can continue to get that kind of usage, big things are ahead for him this season.

3. Oliver Bjorkstrand

How good was Bjorkstrand last season? He led the Blue Jackets in goals and was fourth in points despite missing 21 games to injury. He put up 0.73 points-per-game and was on pace for 271 shots over an 82-game season. His ice time was around 18 minutes per game (almost six minutes per night higher than the previous season) and his power-play time per game was almost doubled. These are what you're looking for when you think of big breakout seasons.

2. Kevin Fiala

It's amazing that Fiala was able to break through like he did last season. In October, he had one point in eight games and was a healthy scratch. He then rattled off 53 points in his final 56 games, which helped him finish with a points-per-game mark of 0.84. Fiala is expected to be even better this year, potentially playing alongside potential rookie phenom Kirill Kaprizov. Fiala should be a mainstay on the top power-play unit to go along with a 200-shot pace over 82 games.

1. Sam Reinhart

I was surprised when looking at potential names for this list that Reinhart had never hit the 0.85 points-per-game mark. He's only reached a 60-point pace, which is bewildering considering he's always playing with Jack Eichel, sees more than 20 minutes per night and plays 71 per cent of all of Buffalo's power-play minutes. This season, he should be playing with even more talent, as a super-line of Reinhart, Eichel and Taylor Hall is pretty likely. He doesn't shoot the puck enough, but he should be able to pick up plenty of assists alongside those two.

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