Ramblings: Game On? Top Frozen Tools Searches – Melnichuk, Vrana, Jarry (Dec 19)
Ian Gooding
2020-12-19
According to Elliotte Friedman, the NHL and NHLPA have reached a tentative agreement on a 56-game season.
We may not have information about scheduling and an iron-clad start date, and we still don't have confirmation that the health authorities from all five Canadian provinces that host NHL teams have signed off. But any step forward is a positive at this point.
After Friedman got the ball rolling, some other information started to trickle in.
With COVID continuing to rage, I have my doubts that the season will start on January 13, which is now less than a month away. I don’t think we’d have to wait much longer than that. Players are already starting to make their way back to their home cities, so they could still pull off a January 13 start date if everything goes right.
This could be a nightmare for teams right against the cap. The flat cap will really mess some teams up. Expect teams to get moving on player transactions sooner rather than later. Could we see a Christmas Day player transaction or two? Normally there's a roster freeze over the holidays.
It’s going to be really interesting to find out whether there will be an AHL season. Will some of these “taxi squad” players ever get to play? Even if there is an AHL season, what’s going to happen when the NHL team is on one side of the border and the AHL team is on the other side? Think Vancouver/Utica, Calgary/Stockton, and Edmonton/Bakersfield.
Canada: Please limit your Christmas gatherings and interactions as per the provincial health orders. We need NHL hockey to start soon! Assuming the health authorities all give the green light, I highly doubt Canadian teams will be playing in front of fans this season. I’d assume that would happen in some US cities, which have already been hosting other sports with limited fans.
Aye… It might take a while for certain players to get going. And in a 56-game (or less) season, there will be much less margin for error. And a lot more up to chance. Expect lots of groin pulls early in the season as players may take a while to get to full speed.
Dallas moving into the Central would put the two Stanley Cup finalists in the same division. That division might not look like such a cakewalk for Tampa Bay. Also, aren't St. Paul and St. Louis further east of Dallas? I won't take this as a finished product, but it's still fun to think about.
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Here are the top Frozen Tools searches from the past week:
You can also now find top player and goalie profile views on the DobberHockey home page, just so you can see what all the fuss is about. I'm just interested in finding out which players fantasy owners are interested in finding out more. It usually makes perfect sense if you're trying to figure out which players you should look into adding or trading for.
Unless…
Alexei Melnichuk
Who? Someone's going to have to explain this one to me. Melnichuk, a 22-year-old goalie who was signed by the Sharks in May, has not played an NHL game yet. So you're basically clicking on a blank profile here. That's not much fun.
Let's take this opportunity to find out more about Melnichuk, though. On the powerhouse St. Petersburg SKA roster in the KHL last season, Melnichuk posted a sparkling 1.68 GAA with a .930 SV% in 16 games. This season he has moved to Nizhny Novgorod Torpedo, where he has posted a more modest 2.68 GAA and a .912 SV%, similar numbers to the team's other goalie (Andrei Tikhomirov) in slightly fewer games.
Since Melnichuk is currently on loan from the Sharks, I would think he would make his way to the NHL once the season is announced. Last weekend I discussed how horrible current Sharks goalies Devan Dubnyk and Martin Jones were last season. There isn't a prospect waiting in the wings to take over, but maybe Melnichuk gets his foot in the door as a third goalie when teams don't usually carry them. In a normal season, he would start in the AHL and try to work his way to the NHL. Yet in a three-goalie system, could he outplay one of those two veterans? It's not completely out of the question.
In my auction league, Vrana was one of those players who was overlooked at first but whose interest has picked up. With long-time stars such as Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov and John Carlson on the Capitals, it's easy to overlook Vrana. Yet there he was on a 0.75 PTS/GP pace and his first 50-point season. Over his four NHL seasons, Vrana has made some nice incremental gains.
The most productive Capital in terms of points/60 in 2019-20 was Vrana (3.0 PTS/60) – not Ovechkin or Backstrom or Carlson or Kuznetsov. League-wise, that was just outside of the top 30. In spite of the recent production, Vrana still continues to average less than 15 minutes per game. Not surprisingly, he has also been used on the Capitals' second power-play unit, yet he still managed to chip in 12 power-play points.
I won't get into as much detail as Rick did about Vrana in his recent Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, but I'd concur that Vrana is up for an additional scoring increase. If the Capitals find a way to use him on the first-unit power play, then look out. His ADP is currently 96.7 in Yahoo leagues, so you could be pulling some great value if you can add him after pick 100.
The last time I checked in with Jarry in early October, he had just signed a three-year contract worth $10.5 million. Matt Murray had not yet been traded, but the writing seemed to be on the wall. At that time, I had mentioned that among the 52 goalies that played in at least 25 games last season, Jarry finished 11th with a 57.6 QS% (quality start percentage) and 12th with 11.07 GSAA (goals saved above average).
Fantasy Take: Ottawa Acquires Matt Murray
In what will be his first season as the Penguins' starter, expect Jarry to be one of the league's busier goalies. The cap-strapped Penguins did not sign a veteran backup during the offseason, which leaves Casey DeSmith as his backup. DeSmith was buried in the AHL last season, posting a 2.92 GAA and .905 SV%. Still, DeSmith has posted reasonable NHL numbers (2.66 GAA, .917 SV%) and should be okay as a backup.
Jarry has proven that he is a talented goalie and deserves the opportunity. How successful he is in 2020-21 may depend on the team in front of him. The Penguins are in the so-called Division of Death and may be playing all of their games in that group. There's no guarantee that they'll even be advancing to the playoffs. Yet that Crosby/Malkin core is still there, so they should at least still be in the mix and avoid a complete disaster of a season. That should be good for the wins that you need, while Jarry demonstrated last season that he's capable of strong ratios.
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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding
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