Ramblings: It’s Not Too Early for a Mock Draft (Dec 20)

Ian Gooding

2020-12-20

With a longer-than-normal offseason, finding topics to write about on a daily basis hasn't been easy. Yet with the season supposed to be starting in a month, I thought why not try a mock draft? So I took a trip over to Yahoo, and lucky for me they had one ready to go in several minutes. I picked the size of league I usually play in (12 teams), and picked a league that used the same settings that I use for the Top 100 Roto Rankings. 2 C, 2 LW, 2 RW, 4 D, 2 G, 4 BN.

My own picks aren't necessarily an endorsement that you should pick that player at all cost. League settings and value (ie. what round or at what cost) should factor into your thinking. However, this might shed some light on some players that I like entering the season relative to their Yahoo pre-draft ranking. But what I want to emphasize is the thought process when you make your picks. Don't get married to a certain player, but instead focus on picking up the right player at the right time. To me, that time is when they fill a need for your team (more so later in your draft), and you don't think that player will be around when it's time for your next pick (more so earlier in your draft).

Getting the practice from a mock draft might also be worthwhile for you, as it might uncover any blind spots from your own drafting style before the big day. As well, it will allow you to factor in the unique considerations to pay attention to for the 2020-21 season.

If you wish to see the full results, go to my personal fantasy hockey blog. Note: I haven't posted anything there in a few years, as my fantasy hockey writing has been focused on this site. Don't go there expecting mountains of current information.

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1. Alex Ovechkin (5th overall)

The first four picks were exactly who I thought they would be. They went in the following order: Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Kucherov, Connor McDavid, and Leon Draisaitl. You can debate the order in which these players were selected. I hand-picked the number five pick in this draft, knowing that I wanted to grab Ovie here and that he would probably be available.

The big four are in those spots because of the sheer volume of points that they put up, and rightfully so. However, you can't forget about Ovie either, and here's why. This is a player who in 2019-20 was tied for first in goals (48), second in shots (311), and more hits (184) than anyone that finished within the top 100 in scoring. That's dominance in three of your six roto categories. Yes, the assists were light (19), but you can make that up elsewhere.

There is the age thing, as Father Time is undefeated. Yet Ovie is cut from a different cloth. We've witnessed an extended aging curve with greats like Gordie Howe and Jaromir Jagr and Tom Brady (I know, wrong sport). It's even possible that we're still talking about Ovechkin as a fantasy impact player five years from now, even though it might be a toned-down version. There's a risk in drafting a 35-year-old player this early, but hey, it's a shortened season.

2. John Carlson

I would have thought that Carlson would be the first defenseman picked, but he was actually the second. Victor Hedman was picked 11th overall, likely because Yahoo has him as the top-ranked defenseman. In a live draft I'd skip Hedman in the first round and grab Carlson in the second round instead.

After the fact, I realized that I picked Capitals with both of my first two picks. That might be risky for my team if COVID hits that team. I had a number of after-the-pick realizations, which had a lot to do with the fact that I was given only 30 seconds to make a pick.

3. Brad Marchand

Marchand would have been a first-round pick in recent seasons, but he was allowed to fall because of his September surgery that may delay his start to the season. Marchand had targeted a January return, so since the NHL season itself has been delayed, Marchand may actually healthy by the time it finally starts. If that's the case, this could turn out to be a great value pick. Keep an eye out for the latest on his return.

The other player I had been considering in this spot was Evgeni Malkin, but he was selected in the pick before mine.

4. Tuukka Rask

Since teams are trending more toward splitting starts evenly between two goalies, and we could see that even more on a potentially condensed schedule, I'm trying to deliberately trying to let goalies fall. However… I thought this was a great spot to draft what I think is a top-5 goalie in fantasy. In past seasons, a goalie run would be well underway, but goalies had been spread out in this draft.

I may have started the goalie run, though. Rask was the fifth goalie off the board, after Andrei Vasilevskiy, Connor Hellebuyck, Robin Lehner, and Igor Shesterkin. Three of the next four picks after Rask were goalies (Carter Hart, Philipp Grubauer, Jordan Binnington).

Just as my first two picks were Capitals, my also just realized my third and fourth picks were Bruins. I intended a bit more diversification, but oh well.

5. Brady Tkachuk

Right after I pressed the button, I realized another oversight. I just drafted three left wingers and realized there were no Utility slots in this league! Thinking fast has never been my forte, and I seem to need more than 30 seconds to get my pick really right.

I made the Tkachuk pick because I realize this is a league that counts hits. The younger Tkachuk is going to rake when it comes to hits and shots, and his scoring will only go up. Yet in picking Ovechkin for the same reason, did I really need Tkachuk here? Blueliners like Brent Burns, Morgan Rielly, Alex Pietrangelo, and Torey Krug were still available. I also needed a center, and I could have also decided on Sean Couturier, Evgeny Kuznetsov, or Mathew Barzal.

6. Kris Letang

The defensemen that I listed in Round 5 were all picked right before Letang, so I guess I was okay in waiting another round to pick a d-man. With the increase in scoring among blueliners, I've been picking them earlier in drafts in recent seasons. It was basically between him and Erik Karlsson at this point. It might not be saying much, but Letang has played more games than Karlsson over the last three seasons. That might be why I have Letang ranked slightly higher in the Roto Rankings.

7. Tristan Jarry

Again, I swore I'd stay off goalies early, but this is the spot in the draft where we're getting into the Nicklas Backstroms and Logan Coutures, and I'm hardly feeling inspired. So I thought I'd grab a goalie instead. I wrote more about Jarry in yesterday's Ramblings.

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This is already the third time in the draft I've picked two players from the same team back-to-back. I don't expect myself to own players from seven different teams in Round 7. At least I'm not playing fantasy football, where I could be looking at some rough bye weeks.

8. Travis Konecny

I'm finally looking at other forward positions beyond LW. I realized at this point that I'd need to grab a center and should have done that earlier. At least Konecny should help with goal scoring, which has been a personal sore spot for me in Yahoo drafts in the past.

9. Jonathan Marchessault

This one's a little off the board. and I realize I should have a better C1. However, he takes a ton of shots and helps a little with hits as well, so I like his roto value.

10. Keith Yandle

Eventually he'll start to slow down, and we saw signs of that with the overall point total and shot total. However, power-play points are a huge part of his value and are also one of the six skater categories.

11. Nicklas Backstrom

I'm going with the safe pick here to fill a positional need. The other drafters (some of which were Yahoo bots) were also uninspired by Backstrom and Couture and were letting them fall well past pick 100. It was a virtual coin toss between the two at that point and would have been happy with either one.

12. Tom Wilson

Wilson is a giant in leagues that count hits. I realize I already have Ovechkin and B. Tkachuk, so this team will literally leave its opponents black and blue. Wilson is a top-100 roto player, so I don't feel guilty in drafting him here. A surplus in this category might necessitate a trade for a position or category that I discover I need help in.

13. Filip Hronek

I selected Hronek as my fourth defenseman. I probably had him on my mind because I recently traded for him in my auction league when bidding attempts for other defensemen fell through. He's ripping up the Czech league a point per game while on loan from the Red Wings. He's virtually uncontested on the Detroit PP1, although the plus/minus concerns me. Yet Detroit has nowhere to go but up and could be playing in a Central Division that might not have many strong contenders beyond the Lightning.

14. Jaroslav Halak

John Gibson was also available and I might have normally picked him here. But I already have Rask, so why not add his handcuff as well? Because of COVID, maybe this is the season where you don't want to handcuff. At this point, I could be sounding too much like a downer. Anything can happen.

15. Brock Nelson

Center is still kind of a sore spot for this team. Nelson is a great value pick here because his numbers have been on the rise since the John Tavares departure. We saw him come to fruition during playoffs, when he scored at nearly a point per game.

16. Matt Grzelcyk

With the departure of Torey Krug, Grzelcyk is expected to be running the PP1 in Boston. Hey, he's a last-round pick, so I'd have no problem dropping him if he loses this spot. I also just counted four Bruins that I’ve drafted here.

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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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