Top 10 Potential Surprises

Tom Collins

2021-01-04

Each season is full of surprises, and no matter how much research you put in, there are going to be players you never expected breaking through.

Last year, we saw Ryan Strome, Neal Pionk and Bryan Rust surprising even the most diligent fantasy general manager.

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This year, we'll probably see many more players who will finish the season as a surprise. In years past, a hot 25 games wouldn't be enough to make up for a horrific rest of the season. This year, that 25-game stretch is almost half the season and will leave fantasy general managers thinking of how great that player would have been over 82 games.

Below are 10 players who have the potential to surprise this season, from the youthful teenager to the grizzled veteran.

10. Devan Dubnyk

Few people think San Jose will have a bounce-back season, but I'm ever the optimist when it comes to this team. I believe Erik Karlsson will be back to his normal self (I covered him a couple of weeks ago here), which will help the goaltender immensely. After all, if Karlsson can help keep the puck in the other zone, that will help out the San Jose goalies. Martin Jones has underachieved, and Dubnyk is the shiny new toy who is an upgrade, so it wouldn't be surprising to see Dubnyk pick up more wins.

9. Duncan Keith

I've been bringing Keith's name up consistently over the past 10 months, so this listing should be no shock. I'm expecting one last big season from the 37-year-old. I know many are ready to anoint Adam Boqvist as the next one, but Keith will still get the top power-play time. Plus, with so many Blackhawks injured, Chicago will be forced to rely on their veterans more than usual. As a bonus, Keith is also good for about two blocked shots a game and two shots per game.

8. Jack Hughes

Last season was an awful one for the 2019 first overall pick. Even if he is just as bad this year, it won't be seen as disappointing as expectations are much lower. Hughes went into the offseason with a plan to bulk up, gaining 14 pounds of muscle as of late December, which can only help his game. Hughes should have a top-six role for the entire season and will be much more comfortable this year with a year under his belt.

7. Calvin Petersen

This selection is looking more at a long-term, but in keeper leagues, this will be the year that Petersen finally becomes a regular NHL goalie. With Jonathan Quick ageing and on the decline, the Kings need to start getting reps to the netminder who can be the goalie of the future. Drafted way back in 2013, Petersen has played a total of 19 NHL games (another example of why you don't draft a goalie too early in keeper leagues). In one-year leagues, he could still be worth a late flier if you're desperate for starts and saves.

6. Oskar Lindblom

When Lindblom left the Flyers' lineup last season to battle bone cancer, he was one of the Flyers' best players. After 30 games, his 11 goals were tied for tops on the team and his 18 points were sixth-highest. He also had 72 shots (fourth-best on the squad) while averaging slightly over a hit per game. He was playing exclusively with Sean Couturier while seeing a significant increase in minutes from the year before while also getting secondary power-play time. I'm much more bullish on Lindblom than many are, but as long as he's playing with a top player and getting consistent top-six minutes, I like him to have a breakout season.

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5. Mikko Koskinen

The Oilers learned their lesson in the postseason when they went with Mike Smith as the starter for game one against Chicago. Koskinen is a better goalie than Smith, and the Oilers won't make the mistake of giving them an equal amount of starts again this season. Expect Koskinen to start at least two-thirds of the games. With the Oilers in a weak Canadian division, he should pick quite a few wins against easier teams.

4. Alex Iafallo

Whatever metric you use for deciding breakout players, it's more than likely Iafallo checks the box. If you like fourth-season breakouts or 200-game thresholds, Iafallo is a good bet for this season. He's increased his points-per-game mark every season and was on pace for 50 points when the 2019-20 campaign was suspended. His ice time increased each season to almost 19 minutes a night last year and his power-play time has also gone up. He plays almost exclusively with Anze Kopitar (88 per cent of Iafallo's five-on-five minutes last year were alongside Kopitar).

3. Anthony Duclair

Florida tends not to deviate from their lines often. That's good news for Duclair, who is projected to start on the top line with Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov. That was Evgenii Dadonov's spot for the past three years, who put up a 70-point pace in two of those campaigns and notched at least 25 goals in all three seasons. Playing with two studs should help Duclair's production, and could flirt with 40 points (a 60-point pace over 82 games). 

2. Dylan Strome

Sometimes it all comes down to timing. If I wrote this column two weeks ago, Strome might not have made this list. Those who did an earlier draft missed out on Strome as there was too big a risk he would have been the third-line centre, stuck behind Jonathan Toews and Kirby Dach. Dach is out for the season with a wrist injury while Toews is out battling an unknown ailment. This puts Strome on the top line with plenty of opportunity for power-play time as well. With a new contract in place and potentially playing alongside Patrick Kane, Strome could hit a career high in points-per-game.

1. Brock Boeser

Boeser will be that player at the end of the season that everyone will talk about how they know he was going to break out and that it was so obvious. Boeser is entering his fourth season (and his 200th-game breakout threshold). Last year he had 38 points in his first 40 games before injuries and losing his spot on the top line caused him to crash for the rest of the season. This is the season he should become a point-per-game player, thanks in large part to his power-play usage. He was on the ice for 70.4 per cent of Vancouver's power plays last year, and his 4:07 minutes of PP time per night was third-highest among forwards (trailing Alex Ovechkin and Nathan MacKinnon).

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