Eastern Edge: Over- and under-valued players on Yahoo!

Brennan Des

2021-01-05

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll discuss players that are being undervalued and overvalued in Yahoo fantasy drafts so far. These classifications were made using average draft positions (ADPs) in Yahoo leagues, which you can check out for yourself over here. A few articles across the website have tackled this topic recently, so make sure to check out Ian's Ramblings of player's being drafted too high and too low, as well as Logan's coverage of late-round value at right-wing.

 

Overvalued

Sebastian Aho

In Yahoo leagues, Aho's average draft position (ADP) currently sits at 12. On average, he's being selected ahead of notable names like Sidney Crosby, Mika Zibanejad and Evgeni Malkin. Perhaps Aho is being favoured over those guys because injury concerns hold more weight this season, with absences made more costly by the condensed schedule. A one-month absence means missing roughly 20-percent of the season. In a normal year, a one-month absence would mean missing around 14-percent of the campaign. As such, I can understand why injury concerns would be of additional importance to some managers. However, I personally think that injuries are too random and unpredictable to prominently factor into player evaluations. There's a short list of players that may be more prone to future injury as a result of past injuries. However, outside of those players, I don't think you should place too much weight on injury history when assessing fantasy value. I apologize for the tangent, but I thought it was important to highlight a possible explanation for Aho's high ADP – he's displayed a high level of durability in his young career, missing a total of four games through four years in the NHL. With that being said, I still can't justify drafting Aho with the 12th overall pick. There are arguably 11 centers that could outproduce Aho this season, never mind the additional wingers, defenseman and goaltenders that should also provide more value. Now, my intention here isn't to discount Aho as a fantasy asset, because he'll likely score at or slightly above a point-per-game pace in 2021. However, given the abundance of talented center options across the NHL, I'm not eager to spend such an early draft pick on Aho.

 

Patrice Bergeron

I think there are a few factors which should have reduced Bergeron's perceived fantasy value heading into drafts this year. For starters, he's 35 years old and age-related decline is becoming a more prominent factor. However, Bergeron has aged like fine wine thus far, with his most productive seasons coming in recent years, after he turned 30. So, I guess you'd be somewhat justified in believing he'll defy Father Time yet again in 2021. Regardless, there are two more factors which