I love NHL player point total props. As a fantasy hockey prognosticator and someone who annually produces his own point projections (available for free), there is no other future bet that I have greater confidence in than player point totals. It's an excellent test of my projections and is added bit of fun to track and root for as the season goes along.

***Disclaimer before we dive in***

Bet within your means and bet for fun. I cannot stress this enough. I have this immense fear of having losses spiral out of control and I would hate for something that I write or discuss on my podcast to contribute to this happening to someone.

My usual betting site, Bodog, has been growing stingier on their player props over the years, waiting until the last minute to post them, if even posting them at all. It creates a thin window, to take advantage of. Fear not, I've found a new source for over/under props: Coolbet.

Coolbet is offering 50 player point total props for the season ahead, and I am going to break down every single one of them here.

Another word of caution: Coolbet is mitigating some of their risk on these bets by increasing the vig. Each of these props comes in at a price of -118, whether you bet the over or the under. For the uninitiated that means laying $118 to win $100. That's a lot of vig. Bodog, for instance will frequently open their lines at -110 and then adjust based on where the market goes.

In a typical year, I'll have extreme confidence in about 12 of these props and win roughly two thirds of those. Because of the added vig, I have to be extra confident about this year's bets.

*If you'd prefer to use Dobber's rankings, make sure to pick up his 2021 Fantasy Hockey Guide*

Okay, here are the available props, broken into three sections Stay Away, Not Quite Right and Lock It In:

 

Stay Away

This group of totals weren't even close to having me consider placing a bet.

Evgeni Malkin – Over/Under 57.5 Points

My Projection: 57 Points

I should mention that I have Malkin hitting 57 points in just 47 games, so if you want to bet on good health, there's a case for the over. Conversely, if you want to bet on worse health you could bet the under. Malkin's explosiveness, but propensity for injury makes him all kinds of volatile. Stay away.

 

Alex Ovechkin – Over/Under 52.5 Points

My projection: 52 Points

Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer we have ever seen, but there is another component to his point total and that is assists. Ovechkin has lived in and around the point-per-game mark for the last decade and should remain there, but there's not nearly enough margin for error if no one else on an aging Capitals squad is finishing.

The thing you like about this bet is that the Russian Machine never breaks. Ovechkin simply does not miss many games so you can be confident that you'll be hanging in there until the very end. I just prefer to have a greater margin for error.

 

Blake Wheeler – Over/Under 50.5 Points

My Projection: 50 Points

On the plus side, Wheeler doesn't miss games. On the downside, he is 34 and just saw his point totals drop significantly. If you think that he bounces back to that 90-point level, you bang this over hard. If not, you stay away. For me, they nailed this line, making it a clear stay away.

 

Auston Matthews – Over/Under 63.5 Points

My Projection: 61 Points

I cannot quite get there with Matthews. He is capable of scoring at a pace that could eclipse this over, especially in weak Canadian Division, but I don't trust his health. Matthews has missed significant time in two of his four seasons and he isn't playing with enough margin that he can afford to miss any action and hit this over.

 

Brady Tkachuk – Over/Under 37.5 Points

My Projection: 35 Points

I am a big fan of what Tkachuk brings to the table, but I don't like the team surrounding him. Even with some capable veterans brought in this offseason, as well as some excellent youngsters like Tim Stuetzle, Erik Brannstrom, Drake Batherson and Josh Norris pushing for time, I'm still not certain there's enough scoring prowess to drive Tkachuk to an over. On the flip side, he's too good for any certainty in an under.

 

Johnny Gaudreau – Over/Under 53.5 Points

My Projection: 52 Points

This over/under is right where it should be, forecasting Gaudreau to balance out the highs of 2019 with the lows of 2020 and finding that point-per-game middle. I was hoping for a lower total following a bad season, but no such luck.

 

John Tavares – Over/Under 53.5 Points

My Projection: 53 Points

This total is bang on and Tavares is one of the more consistent guys in terms of per-game production and games played. Zero edge.

 

Mark Scheifele – Over/Under – 53.5 Points

My Projection: 54 Points

Scheifele is consistently a point-per-game guy and doesn't miss much time. There's no edge here.

 

Patrik Laine – Over/Under 49.5 Points

My Projection: 51 Points

I have a slight edge on the over, but I'm not sure we're at the point of relying on Laine as a point-per-game guy. We can all remember him sleepwalking to a 50-point season in 2019. We're just a season removed from that. It's staggering how talented he is that he can sleepwalk to a 30-goal season, but the bottom line is you have no margin for error with an over bet.

 

Not Quite Right

Like Goldilocks, we're testing out some beds to see which one suits us best. Afterall, we're going to have to lie with any bet we make for the next few months, so they have to be just right. These next few are close, but not quite right.

 

Leon Draisaitl – Over/Under 77.5 Points

My Projection: 75 Points

Like with McDavid, I favour the under despite it going against my desires. This one sits closer to my projection so ultimately I can't bet it, even if I can dream up a dozen scenarios where the under comes into play.

 

Sebastian Aho – Over/Under 52.5 Points

My Projection: 56 Points

Aho has proven himself a point-per-game player and one who misses very little time, putting the over in play for us. I can also envision a scenario where Aho's linemate Andrei Svechnikov hits another level and this top line goes from great to outstanding. That could push Aho's scoring even higher. If I were to bet, it would be on the over, but we aren't quite in range.

 

Teuvo Teravainen – Over/Under 49.5 Points

My Projection: 53 Points

Same story as with Aho. I like this over. I see a slight edge, but not quite in range.

 

Victor Hedman – Over/Under 41.5 Points

My Projection: 38 Points

Another player hurt by the absence of Kucherov. Hell, there's even a chance this is the year that Mikhail Sergachev steals more top unit power play minutes from Hedman. I like the under, but don't love it.

 

William Nylander – Over/Under 46.5 Points

My Projection: 44 Points

I have an edge here, but not a significant one.

 

Thomas Chabot – Over/Under 35.5 Points

My Projection: 32 Points

Thirty-six points hits the over. That's a 52-point pace in an 82-game season. Only a handful of defensemen do that each year, and they typically do it playing for teams that can actually score. Chabot has hit that level before so there is some reason for optimism. I still have a tough time getting there. It feels like there is money to be made shorting the Senators.

 

Sidney Crosby – Over/Under 53.5 Points

My Projection: 57 Points

My projection is for only 49 games played as well. We know Crosby has the capacity to crush this over. We also know Crosby could miss 15 games and we lose this bet by Valentine's Day.

 

Taylor Hall – Over/Under – 47.5 Points

My Projection: 44 Points

That projection is for only 43 games. I do not trust Hall to stay healthy. I do trust him to get back to a point-per-game pace, but that could be for any total of games. I lean under here.

 

Matthew Tkachuk – Over/Under 50.5 Points

My Projection: 48 Points

Tkachuk has consistently come in slightly below a point-per-game pace, meaning 51 points is around the high end of what he can do. It would take near perfection for an over, putting the under into play for me. I really like this under, but not quite enough to bet it.

 

Mika Zibanejad – Over/Under 52.5 Points

My Projection: 50 Points

A healthy Zibanejad clears this over. When have we seen a healthy Zibanejad, though? If I'm betting this, it's the under, but we can find greater margins.

 

Aleksander Barkov – Over/Under 51.5 Points

My Projection: 54 Points

Without the losses of Evgeni Dadonov and Mike Hoffman, I'd have a lot more confidence playing this over. Barkov should at least be a point-per-game player, if not better. He is only a year removed from a 96-point season.

What I can't shake is how seemingly important Hoffman was to the Panthers' power play these past couple of seasons. Very few shooters can drive a power play on their own, and typically the playmakers on a power play are more important, but the Panthers are an interesting test case. Their power play was bottom-10 before Hoffman's arrival, despite the presence of Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, Evgeni Dadonov and Keith Yandle. Insert Hoffman and they morphed into a top-10 unit. Now, with Dadonov in Ottawa and Hoffman in St. Louis, we find out more.

If Patric Hornqvist, Anthony Duclair, Vinnie Hinostroza or rookies Owen Tippett and Grigori Denisenko can finish enough plays to keep the power play afloat then this over will sing. I'm not sure they'll do the job.

 

Jonathan Huberdeau – Over/Under 53.5 Points

My Projection: 57 Points

Same story as for Barkov. I'm close to an over bet here on Huberdeau's total, but there's too much in doubt.

 

Brendan Gallagher – Over/Under 37.5 Points

My Projection: 36 Points

I do like the under here, just not quite enough to lock it in. Gallagher is coming off an outlier year in terms of points pace. In the previous two seasons, despite scoring 30 goals, Gallagher still scored at a pace that would see him hover right in and around this point total. He also played 82 games in those seasons, which is a bit of a rarity for him. Add in all the depth that the Canadiens added this summer and I wonder if it isn't a step back for Gallagher. A step back and any missed time would see this under hit.

 

Elias Lindholm – Over/Under 45.5 Points

My Projection: 46 Points

I like the over, just not enough to bet it. I like at least a 5-point buffer on my projection and the line. If the Flames' top line gets back on track and their power play ratches it up a notch, the over comes into play, but my projection already accounts for some bounce back, leaving little room for the over.

 

Elias Pettersson – Over/Under 55.5 Points

My Projection: 57 Points

Another over that I like but don't love. Pettersson is a top of the lineup superstar and we aren't close to having seen his best. Now is a great time to buy some stock in Pettersson. Still, I have Pettersson projected for a bump in points-per-game and he barely hits this over. He'd have to play all 56 games to give me a comfortable margin for error, but I don't trust him to play all 56.

 

JT Miller – Over/Under 47.5 Points

My Projection: 50 Points

This one is interesting. Miller arrived in Vancouver and exploded for an outlier point-per-game season. Normally, the response to such a breakout is to short the player's stock, but this is a well-set line. I've shorted Miller with my 50-point projection, but I have to go much lower to win an under bet.

Vancouver is thin as hell so Miller is locked in to his power play role and Pettersson exposure so I'm not sure the fall is this far. My number actually gives an edge an the over here, but it's just not bet-able.

 

Filip Forsberg – Over/Under 41.5 Points

My Projection: 39 Points

I like the under, but not enough. I have Forsberg's 39 points coming in just 48 games. Injuries and age-related decline have me thinking the under is in play, however.

 

Gabriel Landeskog – Over/Under 43.5 Points

My Projection: 40 Points

Another under that I like, but don't love for injury and age-related reasons. I have Landeskog at 40 points in just 47 games. I see a case for an over bet if you think he plays all 56, but Landeskog misses time every year, making this too fraught for my taste.

 

Jack Eichel – Over/Under 59.5 Points

My Projection: 58 Points

I really want to bet this under. 60 points is an aggressive amount for Eichel. Betting unders on aggressive totals is typically the way to make money. That said, with Taylor Hall added to this lineup in a desperation sprint of a season there's a chance for Eichel to see even more than the 22 minutes a night he played last season, and he could be even more effective in those minutes. I just can't bet this.

 

Nicklas Backstrom – Over/Under 45.5 Points

My Projection: 48 Points

I think this line is too short. Even though Backstrom has taken a step back these past few years, his per-game pace should still see him top this total barring significant missed time. Last season was the first time in nearly a decade that we saw Backstrom miss time. I like this over and I desperately want to bet on the bounce back following a disappointing season, but the edge just isn't quite there.

 

Lock It In

After reviewing the betting options I am NOT going to take, here are the handful of bets I did place.

Kyle Connor – Over/Under 53.5 Points

My Projection: 50 Points

I typically like a larger buffer between my projection and the set total, but this is too juicy to pass up.

Yes, Connor is an elite finisher and has sustained his 15% shooting on increased volume. He is locked in as a top power play guy and top-six player on a thin roster. Still, last season's jump to a point-per-game pace was still a significant one, and I like to short players after big jumps like that.

Bet: UNDER

 

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Over/Under 50.5 Points

My Projection: 46 Points

My forecast comes in low, mostly because of injuries. It's been a while since we saw Nuge play near the maximum number of games. He is locked in to play alongside one of Draisaitl or McDavid at all times, as well as having a spot on their ludicrous power play, which gives me pause, but this is still in range.

Bet: UNDER

 

Nick Suzuki – Over/Under 42.5 Points

My Projection: 38 Points

This total is AGGRESSIVE. I know that Suzuki had a breakout in the bubble seeing a big rise in usage and scoring rate, but I cannot get to this number. Even at his playoff rate (7 points in 10 games), Suzuki falls short of this total in a 56-game season, and that's without considering he shot 14.8% in the bubble, after shooting only 9.4% over 71 games in the regular season. I'll take the greater sample size!

For all the depth that Montreal added this summer, they still don't have finishing talent and I'll believe they can score on the power play when I see it.

Suzuki can break out and prove he is legitimate #1 centerman and still fall short of this line.

Bet: UNDER

 

Brayden Point – Over/Under 54.5 Points

My Projection: 50 Points

I like the under, not because I dislike Point, he's AMAZING. No, I simply see the loss of Nikita Kucherov as massive. Point can drive his own line, but there's no way he hasn't benefitted massively from an MVP skating alongside him. Most significantly, where does that Tampa Bay power play wind up without it's driving force in Kucherov? Tyler Johnson is the first candidate to step in and take on the playmaking duties. I'll state the obvious that is a downgrade. Point is an elite finisher, as is teammate Steven Stamkos, but everyone takes a hit with Kucherov out.

Bet: UNDER

 

Mikko Rantanen – Over/Under 50.5 Points

My Projection: 45 Points

Here's another injury case. I have Rantanen scoring 45 points in just 44 games, but with some slightly better health he'll hit this over. Hell, Rantanen is so good and Colorado so explosive the over is in play with just 44 games played. All that said, this point total is in range for me and Rantanen's injury history gives good reason to be projecting such a low games-played total.

Bet: UNDER

 

Connor McDavid – Over/Under 81.5 Points

My Projection: 76 Points

This is painful. Who wants to bet against McDavid? Still, I see a reasonable edge here. McDavid is going to put up unreasonable totals. The past two seasons he scored at a rate that would see him hit the over, but that assumes he plays all 56 games. Any missed time and the under comes into play. It's also likely that the Oilers' power play regresses from legendary to merely awesome and that could clip a couple of points.

Look, I don't want any of that to happen. I want to see McDavid hit the over. I just have an under projected and see some value.

Bet: UNDER

 

Jake Guentzel – Over/Under 47.5 Points

My Projection: 53 Points

Guentzel is going to score at a point-per-game rate or better, this much we know. He has done so for two years running despite inconsistent power play deployment. He's an elite finisher getting you exposure to superstars Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby, with the great insurance policy that if one of those guys gets hurt, the other one has this uncanny ability to hit an MVP level. I have so much faith in Guentzel. My only question: can he stay healthy. He has had some hiccups on that front in the past but he can miss 8-10 games and still hit this over.

Bet: OVER

 

Mitch Marner – Over/Under 63.5 Points

My Projection: 57 Points

Over the past two seasons Marner has scored at a rate of 1.14 points per game, which equates to 64 points in 56 games. He has the capacity to score at a better rate but we haven't yet seen it. For this over to hit, Marner has to play all 56 games or hit another level. I like betting on the side with more room for error.

Bet: UNDER

 

Nathan MacKinnon – Over/Under 64.5 Points

My Projection: 72 Points

This is a lot of points, but MacKinnon has scored at a rate that would have cleared this total in each of the past three seasons, even had the seasons been shortened. Obviously, an injury derails this, but otherwise it feels safe.

Bet: OVER

 

Artemi Panarin – Over/Under 61.5 Points

My Projection: 69 Points

Freed from the stodgy environs of Columbus, Panarin delivered a Hart worthy performance in his first season in New York, scoring 95 points in 69 games, a rate of 1.37 points per game. In a 56-game season that's 77 points, so even if he doesn't hit quite that high, Panarin should still deliver an over.

I also like that Panarin doesn't miss many games. The most he has missed in a season is three.

We should also expect Panarin to continue getting heavy usage. Even with the addition of #1 pick Alexis Lafreniere, the Rangers are not a deep squad. The talent that they do have his clustered at the high-end giving Panarin strong finishers to setup. They should also remain a tire fire defensively so look for a continued effort to outscore their problems.

Bet: OVER

 

Patrick Kane – Over/Under 57.5 Points

My Projection: 66 Points

This is the greatest discrepancy between my forecast and the point total, but I have to admit, all of the injuries and absences for Chicago are worrying me about this one.

However, Kane's scoring pace the past couple of seasons would see him torch this over/under. The Blackhawks were also terrible and short on talent in those seasons. Bring on firewagon hockey. Plus, Kane still has some elite finishers in Alex DeBrincat and Dominik Kubalik to feed. Finally, Kane hasn't missed significant time in years, which should give you some confidence.

Bet: OVER

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There you have it. Out of 50 Over/Under options, I found 11 bets that I was comfortable making. I took four Overs and seven Unders, which is a healthy balance. You tend to make more money betting the under as there are more variables that can come into play and cause an under. The under doesn't always hit, which is what makes these fun to bet!

Who are you betting on for the season ahead?

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Steve Laidlaw is the host of the Steve Laidlaw Podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw.