Ramblings: Stars Stuck To Start Season, Crawford Leave of Absence, Players Who Could Rebound (Jan 9)
Ian Gooding
2021-01-09
The season is only a handful of days away and COVID-19 is already doing its thing. Not long after the Stars suddenly cancelled Friday's practice, the NHL issued the following statement about the Stars situation:
Breaking this down, at least three Dallas games will be postponed: Thursday's and Friday's games against Florida, and Sunday's game against Tampa Bay. The plan at the moment would be to reschedule these games, which has been the norm for both MLB and the NFL. However, there isn't a 100% guarantee on that given how fluid this situation is. If you haven’t held your draft yet, you may want to downgrade Stars players slightly or have an effective backup plan for the coming week if you draft one or more.
If your head-to-head league is using an extended first week beyond January 13-17, the Stars play another game against Tampa on Tuesday the 19th before two against Nashville to end the week. So it goes without saying that you should bench all your Stars until everyone tests negative.
This, of course, affects other teams as well. Florida still has another game against Chicago on Sunday, so you'd still get a bit of use out of your Panthers in the shortened week. From Wednesday January 13 to Sunday January 17, the Panthers would join the Jets as the only team to play just one game. Meanwhile, Tampa still has two games against Chicago before they were scheduled to play Dallas.
See the Frozen Tools Schedule Planner for games in the shortened first week, or to create your own schedule planner. For more on the upcoming extended period, Adam Daly-Frey has just written his first Looking Ahead of the season.
The COVID issues didn't end there on Friday. Columbus held out the following list of players on Friday due to COVID concerns. Use caution if planning to use not only the players listed below, but anyone on the Columbus roster until they are given the green light to play. That might not happen until just before game time.
Because Max Domi is particularly vulnerable due to diabetes and celiac disease, I wonder if he's considering opting out of what would be his first season in Columbus.
All in all, schedule planning is going to become more of a science in the 2020-21 season, as this is probably going to be more of a challenge than the return to play was due to the absence of a bubble. This is really the season where the best-laid plans could go awry, and simply having a lineup with all healthy bodies will take precedence over having the ideal lineup that will maximize the number of games played and exploit the most favorable matchups. In other words, just do your best within the circumstances. With teams like Dallas trying to make up games, there could also be ways to exploit the schedule later.
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Also on Friday, the Devils announced that Corey Crawford will be taking a leave of absence for personal reasons. Crawford has not yet played a game for the Devils, having just been signed during the offseason. Let's hope for the best for Crawford.
If Crawford's absence extends into the regular season, Mackenzie Blackwood should be one of the busier goalies in the league. Adding to that is the fact that the Devils play a relatively low number of back-to-backs (7). Scott Wedgewood, who has 24 games of NHL experience and none since 2017-18, is expected to be Blackwood's backup. Depending how long Crawford is out, the Devils could also look for a more experienced backup such as Jimmy Howard.
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Good news: Henrik Lundqvist is recovering after undergoing open-heart surgery this week.
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If you had Riley Sheahan as the first PTO to sign with the team that invited him to camp, congratulations. He has signed a one-year contract with the Sabres worth $700,000. Expect him to provide depth scoring for the Sabres.
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Early next week, look out for our Dobber Hockey Experts Panel, where we make predictions for the upcoming season. Included will be division winners, Stanley Cup finalists, awards picks, and a player to disappoint and a player to rebound. I won't reveal my picks until the article is posted. However, today I'll discuss three players that are potential rebound candidates and why they could be in for better results than last season.
One common thread among the following players? All three were on non-postseason teams in 2019-20, so these players have not played since the season suddenly shut down in March. Another common thread? All three of these players are on my dynasty league team. As a writer, I believe owning a player enhances your knowledge on what to expect from the player, so hopefully you can benefit from my first-hand experience.
Rickard Rakell (Yahoo ADP 178, Fantrax ADP 182)
After a career-high 34 goals and 69 points in 2017-18, Rakell has fallen to 43 and 42 points (in 69 and 65 games, respectively) over his past two seasons. Over a full season, that's a fall from a 70-point pace to just over a 50-point pace. Not only has Rakell's point total fallen over that time, but also his shooting percentage, from 18.6% to 14.8% in his career season to 9.3% and finally 8.1%. Rakell is only 27, so it's unlikely this is an age-related decline.
Yet are two seasons of similar results what we should expect from Rakell? Anaheim is undergoing a rebuilding phase, so for now there aren't going to be the kind of scoring options surrounding Rakell to boost his numbers. It would help Rakell immensely if someone among the youth movement including Sam Steel, Troy Terry, or even World Junior star Trevor Zegras could become that standout game-breaker for the Ducks. Depending how long it takes for these players to develop, Rakell's best years might go to waste, barring a trade to a contender.
For what it's worth, Rakell should be on the Ducks' first-unit power play. He should also form a veteran top line with Adam Henrique and Jakob Silfverberg. If his shooting percentage finally reverses course, then he could be an inexpensive yet productive add for your team. Don't expect a return to his career season, though, where much of his icetime was spent with Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry, who were closer to their prime at that time.
Jeff Skinner (Yahoo ADP 174, Fantrax ADP 183)
Skinner was a painful player to own in 2019-20, if you managed to hang onto him for the entire season. He plummeted from 40 goals in 2018-19 to just 14 goals in 2019-20. Not only that, but Skinner fell to a minus-22 while watching his shooting percentage get nearly cut in half from 14.9% to 7.7%. You may also remember that Skinner was moved off Jack Eichel's line, which had a lot to do with the sharp decline.
If the Sabres' training camp line combinations will foreshadow the regular season, Skinner won't be back on Eichel's line. However, he has been skating with a familiar face from his Carolina days in Eric Staal. Although Staal and Skinner were usually on separate lines with the Hurricanes, they were often on the power play together and were teammates for 5+ seasons. Staal should represent an upgrade on Marcus Johansson and Evan Rodrigues, who were the centers on Skinner's two most frequent even-strength line combinations.
Skinner's shooting percentage, points/60, and IPP were all slightly lower than expected in 2019-20. He is also still shooting the puck, which is a positive sign for a goal scorer searching for better luck. Had the season not ended early, Skinner likely would have reached 200 shots for the seventh consecutive season.
There seems to be a more positive vibe in Buffalo these days, which could be about the addition of Taylor Hall, the strong World Junior tournament of Dylan Cozens, or the fact that the young core of Jack Eichel and Rasmus Dahlin is now another year older. That could work out well for Skinner, who should easily rebound to some degree. How much that will be remains to be seen, although I won't bet on a 40-goal pace.
Something I found out right after I typed this: Friday's training camp line combinations had Skinner on the fourth line, with Tage Thompson moving up to the top line. Again, it's important not to assume that preseason line combinations will be locked in all season. Maybe that's why I'm not jumping to add Joe Thornton to all my teams, despite the frequent reminders from Toronto-based sports networks that he is skating on the top line.
Thomas Chabot (Yahoo ADP 116, Fantrax ADP 73)
Chabot didn't have a sophomore slump; in fact, his career season was his sophomore season (55 points in 70 games). However, in 2019-20 he fell to just 39 points in 71 games as the Senators finally began their full rebuild. So which Chabot should we expect in the shortened 2020-21 season?
Right off the bat, Chabot is being paired with Erik Gudbranson, who seems a better fit for the style of game of over a decade ago, when defensemen were more lumbering. Hopefully that doesn't cut into Chabot's ability to drive offense, but it could keep his plus-minus in the double-digit negatives. Since the Senators are a rebuilding team, points might be harder to come by for Chabot than if he were on a high-scoring team.
On the bright side, Chabot averaged 26 minutes per game, which was the highest average in the league. With that total, first-unit power-play minutes, and a lack of high-end scoring options, Chabot could end up leading the Senators in points. Also, Chabot is remarkably consistent in earning points, having earned a point in 36 of the games he played. Only seven other defensemen had points in more games, even though he finished tied for 17th with 33 assists. That should also suggest that there is potential for more assists, as should the fact that Chabot had fewer secondary assists (16) than primary assists (17).
Based on the above, Chabot should outpace his 0.55 PTS/GP from 2019-20. Yet while Tim Stuetzle, Brady Tkachuk, and other potential scoring stars need more time before hitting their prime, keeper owners might have to wait that same amount of time before Chabot really hits his upside.
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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding