Looking Ahead: January 22 – February 5

Adam Daly-Frey

2021-01-22

All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week, and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their upcoming schedule.

Note: With COVID news coming out of the blue, this article could be stale by Friday evening. It's important as always to pay attention to twitter and the site (especially the Ramblings) to keep abreast of all fantasy-relevant changes. The schedule portion of this article will continue as always, but be prepared to react quickly if games get postponed.

 

The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)

Nils Hoglander, W, Vancouver Canucks (Available in 87 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – With the Canucks' fantastic upcoming schedule, Hoglander is a good add given his role on Vancouver's second line; he's playing 16:35 per game on average so far which includes one game with a whopping 21:45 and although he's only found the back of the net once, he's taken eight shots and added seven blocks as well.

The second line in Vancouver is typically the Canucks' shutdown line, which isn't ideal for Hoglander in terms of production but does mean he'll get lots of minutes, which is the best path to fantasy points. Hoglander managed to put up 9G-7A in 41 SHL games last season (mostly as an 18-year old, as he has a late December birthday) and prior to this NHL season put up 5G-9A in 23 SHL games while on loan – so there's scoring ability, and his puck skills are unrivalled by his teammates outside of Elias Pettersson. In the short term, it's worth picking up a free Hoglander and seeing what he's got.

 

The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)

Denis Gurianov, W, Dallas Stars (Available in 79 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Gurianov should pay off in the short term given the Stars' upcoming schedule (see below), but he's also a great long-term add and has the bonus of having a few extra games in the tank – a sneaky add in leagues that don't have max games played.

Gurianov is the top-line RW in Dallas given the injury to Tyler Seguin, playing with Roope Hintz and Jamie Benn, and although he only put up 29 points last year (64 games) he put up 17 points in only 29 playoff games in the bubble. He put up the bulk of those points on the second- or third- lines, and the second power play unit – Gurianov only averaged 12:59/game in the regular season – but he should see a huge jump in ice time with his new role. For those looking at rate stats, Gurianov was pretty middle-of-the-pack in the regular season (1.43pts/60 at 5v5, 226th among forwards with 500 minutes) but increased to 1.83pts/60 in the playoffs. He hasn't shot much historically and contributes around one hit per game so his peripherals will suffer, but he's got loads of value.

 

The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)

Teuvo Teravainen, W, Carolina Hurricanes (Owned in 96 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – After steady increases in his ice time since arriving in Carolina back in 2016-17 – topping out at 19:12/game last season – Teuvo's had a slow start to the year, playing just under 16 minutes per game (15:58 to be exact) and has only two assists to show for it in three games. He's no longer playing with Andrei SvechnikovNino Niederreiter has taken that top spot to spread out scoring – which will hurt until it's changed. Last year, Svechnikov was a part of 28 of Teravainen's points, and they were on the ice together for 59 goals total in 562 minutes.

Beyond the decrease in ice time and losing a top line mate in Svechnikov, the Hurricanes are dealing with COVID postponements and a horrendous upcoming schedule (see below). Teravainen was almost a point per game last year (63pts in 68 games) and will definitely come back to form so he's not worth moving at a low point, but he can take a seat on the bench in weekly leagues and expectations should be lowered through the start of February.

 

The Anchors (They'll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)

Max Domi, W, Columbus Blue Jackets (Owned in 54 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – After a career year in Montreal two years ago (72 points in 82 games), Domi was a relative disappointment with 44pts in 71 games last season which precipitated his move to Columbus this off-season. Domi left a promising spot in Montreal as a second-line center on an average-scoring team and finds himself as a 2/3 winger (at the whim of John Tortorella) on a low-scoring Blue Jackets squad; Columbus scored 20 goals less than Montreal last year, albeit in one less game.

Although his last name would assume he'd contribute some strong peripherals, Domi has always been quiet in the hits, blocks and PIM categories and if he's not scoring he's a real detriment to leagues where those categories exist. Domi's averaging only 14:28 in Columbus' first four games – topping at 15:19 so there's no real outliers yet – and is a -5 with only one assist and four shots so far. Dismal numbers for bench players in deep leagues, but awful numbers for a 54 percent-owned player.

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Love 'Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)

Vancouver – This period runs from Jan. 22nd until Feb. 3rd, and the Canucks get to play the maximum seven games: home against Montreal (once) and Ottawa (thrice), before road games against Winnipeg and Montreal (twice). That means there are two separate back-to-backs, but the Canucks have already exploded for 5+ goals twice in five games, and that's without Elias Pettersson contributing much.

Dallas – The Cup finalists last year have yet to play a game so it's anyone's guess as to how they'll perform, but that means the Stars will have to jam a lot of games into a short period of time which should pay dividends for fantasy purposes. Dallas plays seven times this period, four at home to Nashville and Detroit (two each) and road games at Carolina (twice) and Columbus. Those aren't ideal matchups outside of Detroit, but on volume the Stars should contribute.

Buffalo – The last Love 'Em team this week only has a few fantasy-relevant players, but they can be deployed with confidence. The Sabres get to take advantage of the Capitals' COVID mistakes for two games – Washington will be without four top players including Alex Ovechkin and Ilya Samsonov – and Buffalo also play the Rangers and Devils twice each at home. Buffalo's last game comes against the Islanders in New York, which is the only bad matchup.

 

Leave 'Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)

Carolina – As of right now, the Canes' next game will come on Jan. 26th against the Lightning, but with the team already having postponed games there's a big chance that their schedule sees changes this period. If not, the Canes still only play five games in this stretch, and only one is an appealing matchup – two games against the Lightning, two against the Stars, and the appealing game comes against Chicago.

Florida – Through no fault of their own the Panthers have only been able to play twice this season, and because of the Canes' postponements, Florida's next game doesn't come until the 26th against Columbus. The Panthers only have four games during this period so they should be avoided on volume anyway, but two of the games come against the defensively-minded Blue Jackets. Their other two games are against Detroit which is nice, but all four games are on the road.

Los Angeles – The Kings have five games this period and all five of them come against either very strong goaltending (the Ducks, once) or strong defensive teams (St. Louis and Minnesota, twice each). Only the Ducks game is a home game, and the Kings have a back-to-back against the Blues; there aren't many relevant Kings in the first place, but avoid them regardless.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Apr 25 - 19:04 T.B vs FLA
Apr 25 - 19:04 NYI vs CAR

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AUSTON MATTHEWS TOR
ALEC MARTINEZ VGK
ELIAS PETTERSSON VAN
ZACH HYMAN EDM
JACK EICHEL VGK

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THATCHER DEMKO VAN
STUART SKINNER EDM
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
ILYA SAMSONOV TOR
JOEL HOFER STL

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