Welcome back to Puck Picks! Each Thursday, I break down some of my favorite NHL bets, explain the reasoning behind them, and track performance transparently. The goal of this column isn't just to share picks, but to help you recognize why certain spots have value so you can identify them throughout the season. I'll be tracking every pick transparently in this column, logging units won and lost as the year progresses.

In the last article, we went 4-3, for a net of 1.56 units. Overall, that brings the season record to 82–70 for +19.52 units. The average bet return is 7.2%. Last week I was really high on Darren Raddysh to shoot more than his teammates due to Seattle's tendency to let up more of a proportion of shots to defensemen compared to forwards. This got me thinking about homing in on specific shot locations rather than focusing on the position of the player. So, before I dive into the picks, let me first describe a new stat I'm examining to help inform my bets.

Shot Zone Location Data

I am by no means the first to take a look at this, but we can break down each area of the offensive zone into specific zones. In my exercise, I broke down the offensive zone into the point, the slot, the right flank, the left flank, and net front. Certain teams let up a higher proportion of their shots at certain zones than average.

For example, there are the teams that let up more and less net front shots than average:

Highest: Carolina Hurricanes (+5%), Chicago Blackhawks (+4.8%), New York Islanders (+4.5%)

Lowest: New York Rangers (-3%), Vegas Golden Knights (-2.3%), St. Louis Blues (-1.7%)

And teams that let up more or less shots from the point than average:

Highest: Florida Panthers (+3.1%), Utah Mammoth (2.9%), Dallas Stars (+2.8%)

Lowest: Carolina Hurricanes (-4.6%), Edmonton Oilers (-2.9%), Calgary Flames (-2.9%).

This is vital information that I'm unsure if the books include in their prediction models, so you bet we're going to use it moving forward. For any player shot prop I include below, I'll likely rely on some of this data. Now let's see if we can get in the win column tonight! Let's dive into the picks:

Zach Hyman Goal (+150, 0.5u)

Hyman is one of the clearest examples of a player whose shot profile aligns perfectly with this new shot zone data. He generates a significantly higher proportion of his shots from the net front, roughly 30% above the average forward. That becomes especially important against Chicago, who allow nearly 5% more shots from the net front than league average.

This creates a near-perfect stylistic matchup, where Hyman's strengths align directly with Chicago's defensive tendencies. He has also scored in each of his last three meetings against the Blackhawks.

The one concern is deployment. Hyman is currently on the second line at even strength, away from Connor McDavid. That lowers his overall opportunity, which is why this is a smaller bet. However, he still maintains access to McDavid on the power play, where many of his net-front chances are created. I'm staying away from his shot prop here because he's hit 3+ shots in just one of his last six games, but the quality of chances remains elite, making the goal prop the better angle.

Brayden Point 3+ shots (+125, 1u) and Anytime Goal (+200, 0.5u)

Point gets a major boost tonight with the reunion of the Nikita Kucherov –Point– Jake Guentzel line following Brandon Hagel's absence. Historically, Point's shot rates and goal production increase significantly when skating with Nikita Kucherov, largely due to Kucherov's elite playmaking. Point has also been ramping up his volume, averaging 5.67 shot attempts per game over his last six, including five shots last game and four the game prior.

The shot zone data strengthens this play further. Point is a slot-heavy shooter (+5%), while Kucherov operates more from the flank, particularly the left side (+14%). Pittsburgh's defensive profile fits this perfectly, as they suppress shots from the flanks but allow more opportunities from the slot. That combination sets up an ideal environment for Point to both generate shots and convert on high-danger chances.

Carolina Hurricanes First to 5 Shots (-166, 1.5u)

Carolina and Columbus just faced off, giving us a useful reference point. While the final shot total was relatively close (33–25), the underlying numbers tell a different story early in the game.

Carolina controlled play heavily in the first period, posting a 66% Corsi For percentage and a 69% Fenwick For percentage. They were clearly dictating pace and generating the majority of early shot attempts, and they were the first team to reach five shots.

Columbus made their push later in the game, particularly in the third period, which inflated their final totals. That doesn't impact this market. Based on the first-period dominance and Carolina's tendency to start strong, this probability looks higher than the 62% implied by the -166 price.

Detroit Red Wings Under 27.5 Team Shots (-115, 1.2u)

At first glance, this may seem counterintuitive after Detroit just put up 35 shots against Philadelphia, but the game script tells the real story. Through two periods, Detroit had just 18 shots and was pacing toward a 20–23 shot game. It was only after falling behind by four goals that they opened things up and fired 17 shots in the third period alone.

In a more competitive game script, Detroit's shot volume should look much closer to those first two periods. Philadelphia has allowed more than 27 shots just four times in their last 15 games and has been even stronger at suppressing shots at home. As long as this game remains close, this sets up as a strong under.

Pavel Dorofeyev 3+ shots (-167, 1.5u) and Goal (+170, 0.5u)

Dorofeyev saw a significant role change last game under John Tortorella, moving onto a line with Jack Eichel at even strength. He responded with three shots on six attempts and generated 0.53 expected goals while logging close to 20 minutes of ice time.

That usage is key — not only is he playing with an elite playmaker in Eichel, but he's clearly not in danger of reduced minutes under the new coach.

The consistency in his shot volume has been excellent, with at least four shot attempts in each of his last 13 games. Once again, the shot zone data supports the play. Dorofeyev generates a large portion of his shots from the slot and right flank — both areas where Calgary allows a higher-than-average share of attempts, while doing a better job limiting point and net-front shots.

With sustained volume, strong deployment, and a favorable matchup profile, Dorofeyev is well-positioned to hit his shot line and carries solid upside to find the back of the net.

Good luck if you're tailing! As always, results will be updated in next Thursday's column for full transparency. Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you're willing to lose.

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