Puck Picks: Apr. 9 – Tage's Lack of Shots, Hughes and Bratt's Recent Dominance, Colorado and Carolina's Shot Generation

Welcome back to Puck Picks! Each Thursday, I break down some of my favorite NHL bets, explain the reasoning behind them, and track performance transparently. The goal of this column isn't just to share picks, but to help you recognize why certain spots have value so you can identify them throughout the season. I'll be tracking every pick transparently in this column, logging units won and lost as the year progresses.

In the last article, we went 6-1, for a net of 6.15 units. Overall, that brings the season record to 88–71 for +25.67 units. The average bet return is 8.7%. Last week, I explored using a new metric to inform my betting strategy – shot zone location data. It paid off well! I'll continue to use this when it makes sense.

Let's dive into tonight’s picks:

Tage Thompson under 3.5 shots (-145, 1.2u)

One consistent edge I've found over the past two seasons is that sportsbooks tend to overprice shot overs. Public bettors gravitate toward overs, which pushes more money onto those sides, and books adjust by shading the odds accordingly. That creates value on the under.

Tage Thompson is a strong example tonight. He's averaging just 2.6 shots per game over his last five and has reached four or more shots in only three of his last 12 games. More importantly, his shot attempts are trending down as Buffalo has shifted toward a more possession-based approach, with Alex Tuch taking on a larger role in generating high-danger opportunities.

This projects as a competitive game against a desperate Columbus team, which should further limit volume. Unless Thompson significantly changes his recent playstyle, this line is too high.

Boone Jenner Anytime Goal (+500, 0.2u)

Jenner's deployment doesn't immediately stand out — he's currently off the power play and skating on the third line with Mason Marchment and Danton Heinen. That typically isn't a recipe for offensive production.

However, the underlying numbers tell a different story. Jenner leads Columbus in expected goals over the past five games, consistently finding himself in high-danger scoring areas. His role is suppressing his odds, but the quality of chances remains strong.

At +500, this is a pure value play on a player generating top-tier scoring opportunities despite limited usage.

Same Game Parlays – Jack Hughes & Jesper Bratt

1+ point each + Hughes 3+ shots (+137, 1u)

Hughes Goal + 4+ shots + Bratt Assist (+390, 1u)

2+ points each (+310, 0.5u)

Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt have quietly returned to elite form. Over the past 30 days, Hughes has recorded 27 points in 14 games, while Bratt has added 20 points in the same span.

Hughes in particular has been significantly stronger at home, averaging 1.5 more shot attempts and 0.8 more individual scoring chances per game compared to his road splits. That added volume makes his shot-based props especially appealing in this spot.

Beyond the individual value, the correlation here is key. Hughes and Bratt are heavily involved in each other's production, making them ideal candidates for stacking in SGPs. With both players driving offense at a high level, these combinations offer strong value across multiple tiers of upside. We are utilizing a 30% bet365 boost for each of the top two SGPs.

Team Shot Parlay (+531, 1.1u)

Carolina Hurricanes Over 30.5 Shots

Colorado Avalanche Over 31.5 Shots

Nashville Predators Under 27.5 Shots

Team shot props have been one of my most consistent edges over the past couple of seasons, largely because they are less volatile than many other markets. Each leg of this parlay carries standalone value, and combining them creates a high-upside opportunity.

Carolina and Colorado rank first and second in the league in shots per game this season, both averaging over 32 shots per contest. They also draw ideal matchups, facing Chicago and Calgary—two teams that sit in the bottom three in shots against. These are strong environments for sustained offensive zone time and high shot volume, making both overs very attainable.

On the other side, Nashville profiles as a clear under candidate. They are up against a Utah team that ranks top 10 in shot suppression, and their own offensive play has declined significantly. The Predators rank in the bottom 10 in shot generation at even strength over both their last 25 and last 10 games, making 28 shots a difficult number to reach in this matchup.

All three legs are supported by strong underlying trends, making this a high-value parlay worth targeting.

Good luck if you're tailing! As always, results will be updated in next Thursday's column for full transparency. Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you're willing to lose.

Follow me on X (@fantasycheddar) for more daily betting picks and fantasy hockey analysis throughout the season.