Ramblings: Johansen injured; overtime; Hague’s performance; COVID updates; Armia; DeBrincat – February 9

Michael Clifford

2021-02-09

Ryan Johansen has been described as week-to-week by Predators coach Jon Hynes, so don't expect him back in the lineup in the near-term. In the meantime, Nashville started their game on Monday with Calle Jarnkrok as the 2C for Grimaldi/Arvidsson.

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A fascinating read over at The Athletic from Dom Luszczyszyn on how 3-on-3 overtime played out through the 2019-20 season. He went and tracked all the overtimes (with help from others) and reported back his findings. I won't divulge everything because this is a lot of work and I recommend people go read it on their own anyway. But he did find a few things we suspect: counter-attacks frequently lead to goals and possessions with more passing also tends to lead to more goals. There is a lot more nuance to everything than just counter-attacking though so I really recommend readers go through it. One of the more interesting hockey reads I have encountered so far this hockey season.

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Also at The Athletic, a breakdown on what happened with the allowed goal in the Carolina game on Sunday that shouldn't have been allowed, the penalty that shouldn't have been called then subsequently taken off the board, and the fallout.

I am just going to flat-out say it: the league (not the games, the NHL as an entity) has been a complete catastrophe this year. Between the screw-up with the Sabres/Devils, official scorekeepers being unreliable, and now referees getting clear replays wrong, this has just been brutal. The hockey itself has been fun and a welcome reprieve. Anyone paying attention to literally anything else besides the product on the ice has to feel disheartened at what they see. Not that we expect perfect leadership and decision-making, but it just seems they're trying to get through this season with complete disregard to integrity. That is fine, if that's what they want, just don't expect your fans and players to treat you with integrity in return.

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Rasmus Dahlin was added to the COVID list for the Sabres. This is how that breaks down now:

 

 

A reminder that this team had games cancelled until this coming Thursday but are set to return then. If they do, they may be without some key players.

Oh, and linesmen who worked the Sabres/Devils series are now also in COVID protocol, so this doesn’t just affect the players.

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On the topic, Minnesota is expecting delays beyond what’s already been announced, as are the Devils and Sabres.

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It didn't take very long but Patrik Laine was benched in the middle of the second period in Columbus's  3-2 win over Carolina. Torts clearly has his own way of coaching and this is going to be an ongoing issue as long as they're both there.

Jack Roslovic – I'll talk more about him later – scored the game-winner with under five minutes to go in the third period. He played over 21 minutes.

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We had a tight game between Ottawa and Edmonton but the Oilers managed to skate away with a 3-1 win. Both Matt Murray and Mike Smith played well, which is an odd sentence to type, but the latter stopped 27 of 28 for the win.

Leon Draisaitl had a goal and an assist and Connor McDavid had a single helper. Josh Archibald scored an empty-netter and had six hits. It was a quiet night.

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It was a much better game for Vancouver on Monday in Toronto but they still lost 3-1. Morgan Rielly got a kicked puck from Nate Schmidt to score in the first and then Auston Matthews and Alex Kerfoot scored 11 seconds apart in the third to finish the job.

Frederik Andersen stood tall for the win, stopping 31 of 32, including a late power play that could have brought the Canucks within one.

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Semyon Varlamov stopped all 30 shots he faced for a 2-0 shutout win over the Rangers. The Islanders got both goal from their fourth line. Not a lot here for fantasy.

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Jack Roslovic has six points in six games since joining the Blue Jackets (this is as of Monday afternoon), and I've already gotten a couple DMs about what to do with him in the fantasy game. I just want to point out that his Individual Points Percentage – or the rate at which he garners a point when CBJ scores a goal with him on the ice – is at 100 percent. The absolute elite in the NHL like Crosby, Kucherov, and McDavid will typically finish between 80-90 percent and Roslovic's last two seasons have been closer to 60 percent. The team is doing well with him on the ice so it's not impossible that he produces, but Tortorella is notorious for not having consistent line mates and ice time, and Roslovic is already due for regression. Add that his shot rate is abysmal, and I suspect that anybody that rostered him immediately following the trade has already gotten as much as they're going to get out of him.

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Both Ilya Samsonov and Evgeny Kuznetsov were practicing with the Capitals on Monday, so their COVID list wait is apparently over. The team did just lose T.J. Oshie and Jakub Vrana, though, so it's not as if Kuznetsov could be walking back into a productive situation. At least he's guaranteed his PP role back, at any rate.

In addition to that, Kuznetsov confirmed he was symptomatic and wasn't able to workout for nearly three weeks. Whatever kind of shape he's in right now, I can't imagine it's anywhere close to game-ready.

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Ilya Samsonov was also symptomatic and said he had days where he had trouble walking and breathing, so, uh, good luck with the rest of the professional hockey season.

Justin Schultz was also back on the ice for the Caps, skating with a full cage.

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The Leafs say that both Joe Thornton and Nick Robertson are progressing to their returns, and that Thornton may be ahead right now, but neither will likely return this week. It is nice to have a bit of clarification here.

They also said it would be six weeks for Wayne Simmonds with his broken wrist.

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After a brief appearance in the top-6, Mike Hoffman was moved back down to the third line for St. Louis in practice on Monday, with Ivan Barbashev taking his spot on the top line. They skated like this for their game against Arizona, and I have to think it's just to spread out scoring. Barbashev certainly doesn't belong on that top line.

Beyond that, the team swapped around their PP units and they have pretty significant impact:

 

 

To me, it looks like St. Louis is going to go for two even power-play units, which is great for guys like Kyrou, Sundqvist, and Dunn, but should hurt the stars like O'Reilly, Perron, and Krug. They had been getting the lion's share of PPTOI but that seems set to change.

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On the topic of Arizona, heading into Monday night's game, Conor Garland was averaging an even four shots on goal per contest. He would be on pace for 30 goals in a normal year and he's not even shooting 10 percent. Imagine if that conversion rate starts to climb a bit?

Arizona has just been flat-out impressive for all the turmoil and losses this team had to endure both in the off-season and early season. Wherever their season takes them, they look much better than they have any right to be.

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Joel Armia was at Montreal practice on Monday but was skating in an extras sweater with Corey Perry in his normal sweater so for the time being, it appears Armia will not be returning to the lineup immediately. That is just my guess and things can change quickly in a couple of days.

Remember that before Armia was injured, he was having a great start to the season on the third line with Toffoli/Kotkaniemi, posting five points, seven shots, and seven hits in five games. With that said, the line with Perry on it has been excellent with nearly a 60 percent expected goal share and an 80 percent actual goal share. In that sense, they may not be in a rush to get Armia back in the lineup, so don't rush to the waiver wires just yet.

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What a great start to the season for young Vegas defenceman Nicolas Hague. He had a three-point game over the weekend and has averaged about 20 minutes a night in his pair of games since re-joining the NHL roster. The peripherals look solid as well with 10 shots, seven blocks, and 10 hits in six games on the year.

I didn't see the second game against L.A. but I did watch all of the first one and Hague looked like the guy prospect fantasy owners were hoping he could be. He was transitioning the puck and jumping into the play, but not with reckless abandon. He is exactly what they need on the third pair when Alex Pietrangelo returns. The pairing of Hague-Whitecloud had been beyond excellent to start the season and whether they're the second or third pair, they should be sticking together. They seem to complement each other very well.

I have concerns for Hague's value once Pietrangelo returns (that should be Thursday) but just in general, it's great to see him progress as much as he has.

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Dobber touched briefly on Alex DeBrincat yesterday but it really is worth digging into his season, as small as the sample is.

We all expected Chicago to be bad once Toews and Dach were announced out for the year and while they're certainly not terrible, they're definitely not a powerhouse in their division. All the same, DeBrincat has 12 points in nine games this year, including six in three games since returning from the COVID list.

The young winger has played about two-thirds of his 5-on-5 ice time with Patrick Kane, including on Sunday, so at least for now he's lining up with one of the top offensive threats in hockey. In his three games since returning, he's averaged over 20 minutes a night and has cracked 21 minutes twice. He has 17 shots on goal in that span. Small samples abound, but if he's going to play 20 minutes a night at 5-on-5 and on the PP with Kane, there is a lot of upside here.

Oh, and it's worth noting that he's put up those 12 points in nine games without a single secondary assist at 5-on-5 and a career-low IPP. Even if there is some regression coming through, say, on-ice shooting percentage, there are positive signs elsewhere that could balance out that negative production. In other words, he's not a guy I would "sell high" on right now. There is a reasonable chance this is, roughly, his production level for the season.

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