Capped: 2021 Free Agent Salary Projections

Alexander MacLean

2021-02-25

In September of 2016 I was given my start in hockey writing by Dobber, and from my first Capped article to today, I feel like the team here has helped me grow a lot. Luckily, Logan Doyle (formerly penning the Geek of the Week) is taking over the Capped column from me and I know he can do some great things with this space as well. Give him a follow on Twitter @doylelb4 so you don't miss any of his work! 

In the meantime, you get one last article from me, and I'm going to publish a big list of the top 200 free agent salary projections for the 2021 offseason. For the uninitiated, I have been working on a projection algorithm the last few years that helps with my cap league rankings, and spits out a projected future cap hit for every player based on a variety of stats and variables. I've found them to be fairly accurate (close to other options that are mostly stuck behind paywalls), but no system is ever going to be perfect. 

There should be a similar amount of cap space available from last season due to the flat cap, but this summer there is also the Seattle Kraken debut, which means we'll have an extra $81.5 million in available cap space around the league appearing out of thin air. That should minimize the number of players getting pinched for every penny like we saw last summer. In addition, it should mean some higher contract ceilings for a class that is heavy on defencemen and pure goal-scorers, both of whom typically get large sums in free agency. 

Some things are tough to put into an algorithm though, and the lifetime service award contract that is likely coming for Alex Ovechkin isn't well estimated by the model. Likely for him we see him on a short-term deal that keeps his cap hit similar to the $9.5 million he is making now. The lowest he likely goes is a round $8 million to match his jersey number, which seems to be the trend now among star players. The other thing that is tough to account for is the players that have no NHL history and are coming into the league as rookies who have already established themselves in the pro ranks. Players such as Kirill Kaprizov and Ilya Sorokin have reduced projections as a result of this. I expect them to make two-to-three times what they are projected for below. 

We see two goalies leading the class, though neither is likely to go very far in free agency. There have been rumblings that Tuukka Rask is going to retire after the season, and it would seem unlikely that Jordan Binnington would leave the St. Louis Blues (though going back to his "hometown" Toronto Maple Leafs as a replacement for Frederik Andersen would be a fun storyline). Philipp Grubauer and Andersen are both UFAs from top tier teams this season, but we saw how much Sergei Bobrovsky struggled after leaving Columbus, so teams may be more hesitant to overpay free agent goalies moving forward. We will likely see continued bridge deals for RFA goalies, despite them making larger impacts at younger ages. Carter HartIgor Shesterkin, and Ilya Samsonov highlight that group, and if their fantasy owners are worried about the mega-deals, then you may be able to leverage that towards a small discount on the trade market. 

The biggest contract we may see from a skater switching teams would be Dougie Hamilton, though I have doubts that he will want to venture very far from a situation that he has fit into well in recent years. He deserves to be earning above $8 million a year, and he will still be a worthwhile own in most cap leagues at that price. This is also a big year for RFA defencemen, with the super four of Miro HeiskanenCale MakarQuinn Hughes, and Rasmus Dahlin all up for significant raises – they won't (and shouldn't) come cheap.

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As mentioned above, there are also plenty of pure scorers in this free-agency crop. Ovechkin at the top always makes any list look better, and a few names like Taylor HallMike Hoffman, and Anthony Duclair – who took one year deals in order to try again in 2021 – add some depth to the class, though we saw them hit free agency last year so the same excitement isn't there. This year's entertainment will be all about RFAs Patrik Laine, Andrei SvechnikovBrady Tkachuk, and Elias Pettersson, along with UFAs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Gabriel Landeskog. That's a lot of scoring talent available, and we haven't even scratched the surface of the next tier with UFAs Kyle Palmieri, Tomas Tatar, Jaden SchwartzPhillip DanaultKevin FialaTyson BarrieNeal Pionk… I could go on for a while, so just check out all the names and their projected salaries here:  

RankNameAgePosProjected Cap Hit
1Dougie Hamilton27D$8,885,007.76
2Tuukka Rask33G$8,622,436.65
3Jordan Binnington27G$8,243,336.35
4Alex Ovechkin35F$7,982,626.14
5Elias Pettersson22F$7,932,113.04
6Cale Makar22D$7,609,028.59
7Tyson Barrie29D$7,409,381.32
8Ryan Nugent-Hopkins27F$7,143,496.20
9Andrei Svechnikov20F$6,983,272.86
10Patrik Laine22F$6,953,249.55
11Frederik Andersen31G$6,838,764.00
12Gabriel Landeskog28F$6,455,160.39
13Rasmus Dahlin20D$6,166,762.71
14Sam Reinhart25F$6,104,842.68
15Jakub Vrana24F$6,076,152.90
16Miro Heiskanen21D$6,067,142.94
17Taylor Hall29F$6,006,677.22
18Philipp Grubauer29G$5,968,157.51
19Mike Hoffman31F$5,848,624.61
20Jaden Schwartz28F$5,829,419.11
21Quinn Hughes21D$5,813,332.87
22Tomas Tatar30F$5,733,889.44
23Brady Tkachuk21F$5,677,924.12
24Kevin Fiala24F$5,644,927.91
25Conor Garland24F$5,404,946.86
26Neal Pionk25D$4,905,484.22
27Phillip Danault28F$4,773,216.26
28Petr Mrazek29G$4,453,088.60
29Linus Ullmark27G$4,442,647.49
30Juuse Saros25G$4,333,463.87
31Kyle Palmieri30F$4,277,720.85
32Travis Sanheim24D$4,099,956.31
33Carter Hart22G$3,759,328.76
34Jaroslav Halak35G$3,692,014.17
35Jonathan Bernier32G$3,570,637.17
36Pavel Buchnevich26F$3,551,246.12
37Joel Eriksson Ek24F$3,497,223.03
38Mikael Granlund28F$3,454,188.60
39Brandon Saad28F$3,417,635.46
40Alec Martinez33D$3,387,248.23
41Igor Shesterkin25G$3,339,637.76
42Ilya Samsonov24G$3,317,559.36
43Zach Hyman28F$3,283,639.18
44Andrew Copp26F$3,220,242.65
45Filip Hronek23D$3,195,268.50
46Tyler Bertuzzi26F$3,182,786.44
47David Krejci34F$3,124,928.13
48Blake Coleman29F$3,080,270.78
49James Reimer32G$2,988,621.46
50Alex Iafallo27F$2,933,848.34
51Dante Fabbro22D$2,929,559.98
52Eric Staal36F$2,926,405.30
53Brandon Montour26D$2,832,347.64
54Alexander Edler34D$2,815,908.27
55Matt Roy25D$2,792,725.40
56Barclay Goodrow27F$2,774,991.30
57Zach Sanford26F$2,746,104.58
58Nick Foligno33F$2,744,638.69
59Brandon Carlo24D$2,738,192.96
60Erik Gustafsson28D$2,736,564.41
61Antti Raanta31G$2,732,862.40
62Mattias Janmark28F$2,727,708.51
63Scott Laughton26F$2,704,715.40
64Nikita Zadorov25D$2,675,356.79
65Tanner Pearson28F$2,657,815.27
66Paul Stastny35F$2,657,703.01
67Joel Armia27F$2,647,755.70
68David Rittich28G$2,613,470.67
69Anthony Duclair25F$2,595,231.31
70Ryan Getzlaf35F$2,589,342.12
71Robert Thomas21F$2,572,562.05
72Adam Larsson28D$2,565,047.51
73Ryan Hartman26F$2,468,497.99
74Thatcher Demko25G$2,462,015.45
75Alex Goligoski35D$2,450,126.69
76Marcus Johansson30F$2,446,867.20
77Jake McCabe27D$2,440,151.66
78Vince Dunn24D$2,436,223.50
79Nick Bonino32F$2,433,378.57
80Nikita Gusev28F$2,430,284.05
81David Savard30D$2,418,970.80
82Anthony Beauvillier23F$2,395,324.75
83Filip Chytil21F$2,391,280.00
84Kailer Yamamoto22F$2,379,476.01
85Adam Pelech26D$2,329,673.46
86Blake Lizotte23F$2,259,136.97
87Jordan Oesterle28D$2,213,699.66
88Ondrej Kase25F$2,211,152.69
89Travis Dermott24D$2,182,408.85
90Kirill Kaprizov23F$2,177,858.64
91Ryan Lindgren23D$2,174,333.82
92Jordan Kyrou22F$2,131,394.99
93Sami Vatanen29D$2,077,599.25
94Ryan Murray27D$1,979,443.00
95Warren Foegele24F$1,955,766.80
96Devan Dubnyk34G$1,908,576.34
97Max Jones23F$1,871,847.30
98Dillon Dube22F$1,869,516.71
99Tucker Poolman27D$1,813,153.17
100Dominik Kahun25F$1,809,317.09
101Tyler Ennis31F$1,807,322.73
102Marcus Sorensen28F$1,795,169.77
103Brock McGinn27F$1,789,483.93
104Henri Jokiharju21D$1,770,322.00
105Teddy Blueger26F$1,759,796.39
106Ivan Barbashev25F$1,734,861.22
107Adam Gaudette24F$1,734,260.96
108Drake Batherson22F$1,724,643.62
109Danton Heinen25F$1,714,693.73
110Max Comtois22F$1,713,585.42
111Sam Bennett24F$1,711,452.30
112Tyler Bozak34F$1,704,457.37
113Erik Haula29F$1,702,276.94
114Artturi Lehkonen25F$1,693,874.63
115Adam Lowry27F$1,693,053.19
116Derek Stepan30F$1,686,739.18
117Alexandre Texier21F$1,674,987.41
118Victor Mete22D$1,673,700.14
119Chris Driedger26G$1,672,980.38
120Sam Steel23F$1,654,896.77
121Ryan Donato24F$1,617,971.16
122Ian Cole32D$1,600,237.83
123Carter Hutton35G$1,571,527.79
124Alexander Wennberg26F$1,564,008.36
125Jesperi Kotkaniemi20F$1,541,207.69
126Jamie Oleksiak28D$1,523,575.05
127Nick Ritchie25F$1,478,443.09
128Jason Dickinson25F$1,468,370.82
129Michael Raffl32F$1,442,403.51
130Lucas Wallmark25F$1,421,212.28
131Jordan Martinook28F$1,394,360.80
132Trevor Moore25F$1,390,831.71
133Derick Brassard33F$1,368,112.41
134Ryan Dzingel28F$1,356,796.30
135Bobby Ryan33F$1,355,827.88
136Andreas Athanasiou26F$1,353,220.65
137Vinnie Hinostroza26F$1,350,217.02
138Tyson Jost22F$1,337,438.84
139Carter Rowney31F$1,319,591.00
140Alexander Nylander22F$1,308,367.18
141Derek Forbort28D$1,299,506.64
142Travis Zajac35F$1,289,807.70
143Casey Mittelstadt22F$1,255,725.69
144Casey Cizikas29F$1,251,525.89
145Brandon Sutter32F$1,230,001.72
146Brian Elliott35G$1,208,026.92
147Alex Chiasson30F$1,203,093.57
148Mike Reilly27D$1,176,230.13
149Carl Soderberg35F$1,172,498.04
150Alex Galchenyuk27F$1,170,570.45
151Stephen Johns28D$1,165,038.64
152Mikko Lehtonen27D$1,162,037.46
153Pekka Rinne38G$1,158,944.34
154Conor Sheary28F$1,152,889.75
155Anders Nilsson30G$1,149,305.25
156Joe Thornton41F$1,142,951.48
157Nolan Patrick22F$1,140,882.83
158Sean Kuraly28F$1,128,271.72
159Mathieu Perreault33F$1,097,414.20
160Brett Howden22F$1,094,529.71
161Mark Jankowski26F$1,088,071.40
162Riley Nash31F$1,084,409.70
163Matthew Nieto28F$1,072,467.98
164Valtteri Filppula36F$1,063,435.55
165Wayne Simmonds32F$1,060,096.94
166Michael Amadio24F$1,053,684.04
167Luke Glendening31F$965,001.88
168Derek Ryan34F$962,630.83
169Libor Hajek23D$961,500.32
170Filip Chlapik23F$954,661.77
171Travis Boyd27F$929,933.55
172Jimmy Vesey27F$926,820.54
173David Kampf26F$920,899.68
174Zach Aston-Reese26F$918,523.45
175Oliver Kylington23D$910,300.56
176Logan Brown22F$890,396.73
177Kyle Clifford30F$883,637.36
178Dominik Simon26F$879,658.59
179Dennis Cholowski23D$871,911.90
180Cody Ceci27D$861,638.75
181Josh Mahura22D$858,715.79
182Ryan Poehling22F$837,309.11
183Pierre-Edouard Bellemare35F$823,715.64
184Juuso Valimaki22D$810,760.96
185Sam Gagner31F$770,767.94
186Jason Spezza37F$763,583.52
187Alexander Volkov23F$762,474.13
188Marcus Hogberg26G$756,967.96
189Jonas Siegenthaler23D$750,000.00
190Adam Erne25F$750,000.00
191Michael Del Zotto30D$750,000.00
192Jake Bean22D$750,000.00
193Jayce Hawryluk25F$750,000.00
194Evan Rodrigues27F$750,000.00
195Erik Gudbranson29D$750,000.00
196Riley Stillman22D$750,000.00
197Isac Lundestrom21F$750,000.00
198Ilya Sorokin25G$750,000.00
199Mikhail Grigorenko26F$750,000.00
200Andrew Cogliano33F$750,000.00

If you have any questions, comments, concerns, stick them in the comments, or find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean

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