Ramblings: Colorado Goaltending; Nashville Defencemen; Patrick Kane; Selling Jordan Binnington
Alexander MacLean
2021-03-24
How are everyone's March Madness brackets doing thus far? Surprisingly my two brackets on the mens side have a combined six of eight semifinalists left, but that's about the only green on them. Good thing I'm not paid to write about basketball. Let's get back to the stuff you really want to hear about.
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A few new Anaheim Ducks names on yesterday's update of the Covid list, so be wary of some possible postponements in their upcoming games. They are scheduled to play four road games in the next week, with one game against Minnesota, two against St. Louis, and the last against Colorado. If they do end up missing any games, then it's likely that by the time they return, John Gibson will be ready to re-claim the starter's crease.
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PSA: Check back around lunchtime for an update on injuries across the league from 'Injury Ward' pinch hitter @Harjas_Grewal.
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Before we jump into last night's games, I wanted to mention that the NWHL is concluding their season with the semifinals upcoming on Friday, and the final on Saturday. If you want to catch some great women's hockey content then this is exactly what you're looking for.
With Toronto being the centre of the hockey world, here's some reading for you if you want to know where to get started on getting up to speed before the weekend.
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James van Riemsdyk, Sean Couturier, and Jakub Voracek all had two points for the Flyers in a losing effort. If it wasn't for a couple of posts and close misses, they could have had at least three each, though I'm sure they wanted the win more. At the other end of the ice, the Philadelphia goaltending continues to implode and they may actually be the second-easiest matchup in the East division right now. New Jersey won't be confused with a cup contender anytime soon, but Mackenzie Blackwood is an above-average goalie, and their youth is starting to figure out how to create their own scoring opportunities. Someday very soon they're going to put it all together and be contending with the Rangers for the division crown.
Pavel Zacha was the only forward to see over 18 minutes of ice time in the game, and with a career high in powerplay time too, he's pacing for over 50 points for the first time in his career. He may be a bit of a bargain at his $2.25 million cap hit next year as the team improves around him. Sticking on that top power play unit will be key.
I'm curious if any team takes a flier on acquiring Nikita Gusev to boost their offence for a playoff run. How do people think he might fit with Washington, Edmonton, or Dallas? I think the fits in Edmonton and Washington are a little more obvious, but Dallas makes the most sense to me. They have gotten a lot of mileage out of Russian winger Alex Radulov who came back from the KHL in the middle of his career. The Stars are also struggling with the health of their forward core right now, and they have a lot of players who can play on the defensive end, supporting their strong goaltending and top defensive pairings. However, they don't have the same firepower to keep up with Tampa Bay and Carolina, let alone teams in other divisions.
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Speaking of the Stars, they couldn't muster a lot of offence against the top team in the league, and Andrei Vasilevskiy continues to shut the door on everything important, winning his 12thstraight start. How early will he go in redrafts next year? Is he worth a third overall pick once Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are off the board? It's possible that might be the direction I take if I get the opportunity.
Since my Ramblings from last week championing Jake Oettinger while ribbing on the Stars' all-white jerseys, Oettinger has lost one game to Detroit, and then watched from the bench while Anton Khudobin has started the next three games. He has lost his last two though, so it's likely Oettinger's time to shine again. Don't be surprised if he out-plays Khudobin the rest of the way.
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This is the last week that I'm going to plug the Midseason Guide, not because it won't continue to be useful, but because if I can't convince you by this point to do the smart thing for your fantasy hockey season, then I probably never will. The projections, tips, and tricks are the meat that the guide provides, but there are even useful tidbits for after the trade deadline, such as players to watch out for depending on what stats you're looking to stream, and how to take advantage of the remaining schedule. It makes an excellent early birthday present for yourself.
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Jonas Johansson looked shaky in his Avalanche debut, allowing two goals on his first three shots, both by Arizona defencemen. Sometimes it takes players a little time to get settled in, so we'll give him a mulligan on the slow start. He may not be a star, but playing for Colorado will certainly be easier than playing for Buffalo. It shouldn't surprise anyone if Johansson is at least average in his next few starts for the Avalanche – assuming he gets any more that is. The wins will certainly be easier to come by, and with the Avs among the four teams in the West starting to pull away with the four playoff spots, Grubauer may be rested a little more down the stretch.
The trade of Johansson to Colorado does not bode well for Pavel Francouz‘s immediate return. However, if he was going to be out for the rest of the season, then they would likely be looking at a better backup option. This likely means he's expected back by the end of the regular season, but perhaps not much earlier.
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Roman Josi thought he had scored in his return from injury, but it turns out there was a small deflection on the shot by Mikael Granlund. Either way, the Predators really need him to ramp up his production, and if they are going to have any push for the postseason then they are going to have to ride him hard. He might be one of the better value buys that you can get right now on defence considering his upside and slow start. Last night he put up six shots and a powerplay assist in 21 minutes of ice time. More shutouts from Juuse Saros would help too, but there are only so many games left against the Red Wings.
Dante Fabbro didn't manage to take advantage of the extra ice time while Josi was out, but Mattias Ekholm certainly did. In the seven games without Josi, Ekholm put up five points, 17 shots, and 11 of his 12 hits on the season.
Yes, you read that correctly. In Ekholm's first 18 games this season, he amassed one single hit. After pacing for over 60 in each of the last five seasons, this year's lack of physicality is puzzling. It could partially be due to an eight percent increase in offensive zone starts, but that doesn't cover all of it. Something I'll have to keep an eye on moving forward while watching more Nashville games. In the meantime, getting traded out from under Josi's shadow may seem like it will
And because we haven't had a referee controversy in at least a week:
These are the games that we play fantasy sports with, and some people bet real money on. Frustrating to say the least.
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The Panthers were without the services of Aleksander Barkov, who left partway through warmup and was then scratched from the starting lineup. No word yet on what kind of injury it may be, but let's hope it's nothing serious.
The Chicago youth continues to produce in a 3-2 win over the Panthers. The Blackhawks got points from Pius Suter, Dominik Kubalik, and Brandon Hagel. Mackenzie Entwhistle also made his NHL debut and put up two shots and three hits in six minutes. Who says you need to completely hit rock bottom to rebuild? Same thing in fantasy, the teams like Buffalo and Edmonton that bottom-out, often end up staying there for a lot longer than initially planned. Take a page out of the Chicago book, and plan for a retool and not a rebuild.
While we're discussing the Hawks, something Dobber said about Sidney Crosby in his Monday Ramblings got me thinking about Patrick Kane and his future production. He's an excerpt of Dobber's thoughts (though the full context is worth reading):
Crosby will continue to post numbers greater than a point-per-game next season, the one after that, and the one after that. He’s a generational player and for those players you can knock four years off their age and treat them accordingly. Under my ‘generational-player formula’ that I just made up right now, Crosby is 29.
Kane may not have the same "generational player" title, but his offensive skillset is similar to Crosby, in that they are both extremely intelligent players with high puck skills, who can shoot and pass better than most of the rest of the league. Maybe we knock two-or-three years off of Kane's age when evaluating him and his future production. In short, he'll be producing at a 100-point full-season pace for the next number of years. If your championship window is open (or opening) now, he's someone to inquire about.
Also, for those of you riding Kevin Lankinen, I hope it's not too late for you to sell high/find an upgrade:
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As a former Jordan Binnington owner in a cap league, him signing at a $6 million AAV was a convenient advance notice on his increased cost for next season (check out Logan Doyle's take on the contract here). That seems to be the market value for a solid starter in their prime who can make 60 starts in a season. However, Binnington doesn't have the same track record of a John Gibson, Connor Hellebuyck, or a Jacob Markstrom. We only have a few years of NHL data from Jordan Binnington, and if you dive a little deeper into the numbers, there's cause for concern.
In every one of Binnington's seasons thus far, he has fallen off in the latter half of the campaign. In his 32 games in his debut year, Binnington put up a 1.9 GAA, and then regressed to a 2.5 GAA in the playoffs (which are usually lower scoring). In 2019, his GAA remained relatively the same across all 50 games, however, after the first 30 his save percentage, quality start percentage, and GSAA dropped. That means he was still letting in the same number of pucks per game, but this was despite seeing fewer shots against him, as well as fewer high quality chances. He was then even worse in the playoffs.
This year, he's getting close to that 30-game mark where he seems to tail off. It could be that Binnington isn't set up for a long struggle through 50 games in a season, and the 30-game plateau is when the exhaustion finally sets in. Last year was his only campaign over the last five years where he played more than 35 games, so it is something he will likely have to adjust to. With some possible complacency as a result of his new contract kicking in over the summer, and no notable backup pushing for starts, it looks like this will be a situation that is sorted out more by trying to push through than anything else.
Goalies are fickle at the best of times, but when there are red flags showing up for a goalie that you could sell high, that usually makes it doubly worth your while to see what options there are around your league. I moved him just last night, but it remains to be seen if that will pay off in the long run or not.
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Follow me on Twitter @alexdmaclean, and stay safe!