Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column.To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a league where goalie categories are weighted heavily, and where a GM traded away Carter Hart for Ilya Sorokin, is Sorokin likely enough to become a true starter for 2021-22 to make him keepable?

After a rough go of it, Sorokin has played well since mid-February, giving up two or fewer goals in nine of 11 starts through April 10th. Still, that's been enough to earn him consecutive starts exactly once during that span, with him and Varlamov usually alternating. Even still, many a poolie is hoping New York is simply taking it slow with Sorokin before signing him to a longer term RFA deal in the offseason and making him the true starter for 2021-22.

I'm here to say if you think that, you don't know Barry Trotz. In 2018-19, Trotz started Robin Lehner (earning $1.5M and a UFA to be) 43 times and Thomas Greiss (earning $3.33M and with one year left on his deal) 39. Then, in 2019-20, Semyon Varlamov, who'd been inked to a four-year deal paying him $5M per season, started 39 games versus 28 for Griess, who was then in the last year of his deal and being outplayed by Varlamov. Even though Greiss was going to walk at the end of the season and wasn't faring quite as well as Varlamov, the goalie with a fat new contract, Trotz opted to start Varalmov only in 58% of his team's games, with Varlamov finishing tied for 20th in the NHL in starts for 2019-20.

So far for the 2020-21 campaign, Varlamov has started nearly twice as many games as Sorokin, although as noted above they've been effectively alternating starts for over a month. What this tells us is Varlamov's contract matters and will continue to matter, as Sorokin is all but assured to be inked for less than $5M per season. It also suggests Trotz's ideal is not one in which a goalie is leaned upon for the lion's share of starts. Accordingly, barring an injury or Varlamov imploding, I'd expect Sorokin to start, at best, about half of New York's games for 2021-22, perhaps fewer if he falters and/or due to Varlamov's contract. This makes it so the two of them are nice to own in leagues that have daily starts, but neither one is attractive in leagues which are heavy on categories like Saves, Wins and SO. In a league like this, I'd dangle Sorokin to hopefully get a guy like Thatcher Demko, who seems to have wrested the #1 job from Braden Holtby, or Tristan Jarry, who's the #1 on a still good Pittsburgh team and, prior to injury, righted his ship after a poor start. If no deal can be made, I don't think Sorokin is keeper material given the system in which he plays and the heavy weighting of goalie categories in this GM's league.

Topic #2 – In a H2H keep 6 league, with rosters of 6F, 4D, 2G, 6BN, 3IR, and categories of G, A, Pts, +/-, SHP, PPPts, GWG, W, SV, SO, a team has Nathan MacKinnon, Mika Zibanejad, Kirill Kaprizov, Johnny Gaudreau, Roope Hintz, Clayton Keller, Anthony Cirelli, Bryan Rust, Nikita Kucherov, Evgeni Malkin, Roman Josi, Shea Theodore, Miro Heiskanen, Rasmus Dahlin, Keith Yandle, Igor Shesterkin, Carter Hart, Kevin Lankinen, Juuse Saros. The team has trade offers for Hart and Kaprizov. Who should its six keepers be?

This team is too stacked not to make trades, as otherwise it'd lose at least a couple of players likely keepable on other teams unless this is an eight team (or fewer) league. The major area of strength from which to trade is defensemen, as arguably this team has four of what would be considered top 25 keeper league d-men.

The dilemma is whether to keep a goalie at all. Although two of twelve starters are netminders, just three of the ten categories relate to goalies and all reward guys who log many starts and see a lot of rubber. Of the four on this team, I'm not sure any fit that bill. The guys to get are Andrei Vasilevskiy, who's probably untouchable, as well as Connor Hellebuyck, who might be able to be obtained as he's following his usual pattern of a great year with a not so great one. Approach the Hellebuyck owner and offer him or her a choice of any of Hart, Shesterkin, or Saros, plus a defenseman of his or her choice. If Hellebuyck can't be obtained, I think it still makes sense to try and move at least one or more of this team's goalies for picks and perhaps not to keep any.

I'd also definitely trade Kaprizov, as Minnnesota yet again is a team reluctant to play its stars into the ground, which will serve to keep Kaprizov from his full potential. Deal him for picks, as more players are not needed, unless perhaps it's to trade him plus one of the goalies, as well as another defenseman in order to get someone better suited for this team, like Brad Marchand, who piles on PPPts but also will nab a SHP here and there. 

The ideal six keepers would be Hellebuyck, Marchand, Zibanejad, Kucherov, MacKinnon, and one of the defensemen left over from Heiskanen, Josi, Theodore, and Dahlin. If Hellebuyck or Marchand can't be obtained, replace them with defensemen or try to make other deals. If I had to rank the d-men given the categories, I'd put them in order of Josi barely over Theodore due to SHP, then a drop off, followed by Dahlin and Heiskanen. When making deals it'd be best to try to avoid having to part with both Josi and Theodore so as to be able to retain one of them.

Topic #3 – Is it a foregone conclusion that Patrik Laine is a great buy low, or could it be that what we saw from him early on might end up being the best he had to offer?

I think everyone can agree by now that Laine is not the type of player who will thrive in a John Tortorella system. The issue is Laine will be an RFA this summer, so he isn't free to sign with another team as a UFA until at least 2022, assuming he and the Blue Jackets only reach a one year bridge deal this summer. The other interesting wrinkle is 2020-21 is the last season of Torts' deal with Columbus, his fifth season with the team. This is right around when Torts usually wears out his welcome, as he lasted five seasons with the Rangers and seven with Tampa before being fired in both cases. The Blue Jackets have finished in a worse position each of the past two seasons, and are on track for a subpar record yet again. As such, Torts could be gone before 2021-22, which in and of itself might spark Laine.

The other issue though is whether Laine can excel without a great center, as during his first two successful campaigns with the Jets the vast majority of his points came when he was on the ice with Mark Scheifele. Sure enough, when he was back with Scheifele in 2019-20, Laine had another strong season. What this shows is Laine either isn't – or isn't yet – a player who can produce without an elite center, which, with all due respect to Max Domi, Jack Roslovic and Liam Foudy, he doesn't currently have in Columbus.

Columbus gave up a lot to get Laine though, and clearly coveted him. My guess is they do what they can to acquire a center who has enough skill to bring out the best in Laine. Lest there be doubt about Laine's potential, since 1990-91 only Steven Stamkos had more goals in his first three seasons from age 18-20, with those immediately below Laine being Ilya Kovalchuk, Jaromir Jagr, and Sidney Crosby. In other words, no one who was as good of a goal scorer as Laine was while as young as he was has ended up having a less than an elite career.

In sum, given what Columbus gave up to obtain Laine from the Jets, the strong possibility that Tortorella will not be re-signed, and what Laine did as a teen, he does seem to qualify as a buy low. The issue is given how good he was before, and how much those who own him in keepers likely had to "pay" to get him either in the form of a draft pick or trade, they might be hesitant to get rid of him and risk it coming back to haunt them. Even if they're amenable to trading him, they still might want a high price because of his track record and out of concern he'll rebound. If he is a true buy low in your league(s), I wouldn't hesitate to make a push to acquire him, and I would do it now before Torts is gone. When Tortorella is out of the equation, Laine owners will think a roadblock to his success is no longer present, making it so they either don't deal him or demand a lot more than they would right now, when his value has arguably never been lower.

Topic #4 – In a points-only salary cap league, how do the following forwards rank for a team that expects to be a contender in 2-3 years: Joel Farabee, Conor Garland, Jordan Kyrou, Alex Iafallo, Jason Robertson, Drake Batherson, and Josh Norris?

Let's focus on the cap aspect first, as that could be what separates otherwise equal players. Of the seven, only three (Farabee, Robertson, Norris) will still be in their ELCs after this season, with each set to be a first time RFA in 2022. Garland, Kyrou, and Batherson are on ELCs that expire after this season, and Iafallo, who, at 27, is the elder statesman of the bunch, actually re-signed with the Kings on Monday for four years at a $4 million cap hit. I wasn't keen on Iafallo even before learning about his contract status; however, given that he's not likely going to get much better due to his age but is getting much more expensive, he has to be in last place on a rebuilding team in a salary cap league.

If you read my Goldipucks column from last week, you know I think big things are in store for Farabee, but Robertson has shown a lot this season too. Robertson has improved his scoring rate, SOG rate, and TOI with each passing quarter and has a points-per-60 that is higher than Farabees and tops among any NHLer age 21 or younger. The Dallas winger is in a sweet spot because the winger corps on the Stars is aging, which gave him a chance to step up, and he certainly has. Picking a winner is a bit difficult because of Dallas missing Tyler Seguin, which leaves Robertson's exact "spot" a bit in doubt, plus Farabee's multicat edge is meaningless in points only. Probably I go with Robertson narrowly in first because there's less of a logjam at forward in Dallas.

Third place is Garland. Yes, he's the second oldest and has slowed somewhat since his point per game first quarter; however, what impresses me most about him is he has just three secondary assists, meaning 28 of his 31 points have either been goals or primary assists. Also, his SH% is below his career rate, and he has an elite IPP. The only thing seemingly preventing him from being a superb player now is being in Phoenix, and even that will only hold him back for so long before he comes into his own enough to carry his line, if not his entire team.

Fourth and fifth are the Ottawa forwards. Were if not for the presence of Tim Stutzle, I'd put Norris fourth, especially given he has a year left on his ELC; however, I think Stutzle will be the #1 center for Ottawa if not next season then by the time this team is contending, leaving Norris as a second banana. Batherson is not best suited for points only and will be in line for a decent raise. He was actually playing a lot with Norris in the first quarter, until the two were split. In the end, even though he's going to be more expensive sooner, I like Batherson a bit more here, as from what we saw earlier this season he put together a stretch of 11 points in nine games, which showed me a lot and seems like just a taste of things to come once the team around him improves and he gains consistency.

Last place I already noted is Iafallo, so sixth place goes to Kyrou. My concern with Kyrou is he played his best hockey when Vladimir Tarasenko was out of the line-up and Robert Thomas was not living up to expectations. Many believe – rightfully in my opinion – that Thomas is likely to be a better long-term producer than Kyrou, and perhaps as early as next season. Also, even with the campaign he's having Kyrou had always remained on the outside looking in when it came to PP1 time, and this was despite Tarasenko being absent for most of the season. Simply put, Kyrou comes with too many risks and unknowns to rank higher.

Topic #5 – How would the following players rank in a point-only league: Sebastian Aho, Elias Pettersson, Mikko Rantanen, Andrei Svechnikov, David Pastrnak, Kyle Connor?

I'll give two rankings – for now and for longer term. First place for now is Pasta, followed closely by Rantanen. Pasta, although predictably producing at a slower pace this season due to missing early time, is just one of only four wingers (Patrick Kane, Nikita Kucherov, Brad Marchand being the others) to produce above a 100 point pace in each of the past two seasons.

Longer term I give a narrow edge to Rantanen, as Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand are playing far better than most their age should be, perhaps helped by Pasta. In the next 1-3 years one or both will slow and/or break down, and there are no really talented players waiting to take their place, meaning Pasta will have to do it all essentially himself; and although he's a superb talent, not having seen him play at the top of his game without at least one of Bergeron or Marchand makes it tough to conclude that he can be a superstar on his own. Or in other words, there's a reason why every time Pasta has been removed from that top line he finds himself back there sooner rather than later. On the other hand, Rantanen is handcuffed to Nathan MacKinnon, and both of them are poised to be elite for many seasons to come, with Rantanen erasing doubt that his 2018-19 was a one-time fluke on the heels of his higher SOG rate this season.

Third place for now is Connor. In a recent Goldipucks column it was shown he's a point per gamer, but likely not more. His higher goal scoring totals aren't relevant in points only though. Still, his downside puts him third, ahead of Aho, who many expected would be better but still is strong enough to rank ahead of Svechnikov, who's being held back by his subpar linemates and this not being multicat. Long term I reverse the list – Svech third, then Aho and Connor. Simply put, what we saw in terms of goals and SOG from Svech as a teen put him in the rarified air of young Steven Stamkos, Sidney Crosby, and Ilya Kovalchuk, but also Jeff Skinner and Patrik Laine, which is the only reason he's not in the top two. Aho ranks ahead of Connor due to the possibility that he connects the dots and becomes a 90+ point player. More on Aho in the last topic.

Then there's Pettersson. For now he's in last, as in my most recent mailbag I saw that his early career numbers compare to only one current player – Paul Stastny, who started strong but then was a disappointment. He's the biggest variable in the bunch though, in that he's a player who could end up being a perpetual 60-70-point disappointment or who could maybe hit 100 points. Long term I'd say Pettersson has a 25% chance to be in last place, a 60% chance of being somewhere in the 3-5 range, and a 15% chance to rise to first or second.

Topic #6 – In one-year leagues, how long should GMs allow a player to slump before letting go?

I'll start by saying there is no magical formula for answering this question, but I can go over various factors I've used in order to make this type of assessment. First and foremost, it depends on how far into the season you are. When and why one decides to drop a player can and should differ if it's earlier in the season, versus the middle chunk of the campaign, versus the home stretch. Here's how so.

Early on there's a catch-22 in that you don't want to be too reflexive, yet that's also the time when usually the best pick-ups can be made. What I usually do in an 82-game season is give guys until game 15 to show what they're made of, with the exception being if I see a free agent I really want to grab, in which case I decide who to drop based on depth at the position, and, for guys who are underperforming, what their SOG and luck metrics look like. Also, the team they're on matters, as it should be clear even early which squads might be faring better or worse than expected, which impacts the fantasy value of their players. Linemates and PP time are also key. Lastly, I look at scoring. Yes, lastly. Scoring within 15 games can be heavily influenced by unsustainable luck, which is why I focus more so on luck metrics. I also go back in time to see if the player has a history of being a slow starter, in which case he might get a longer leash.

In the main portion of the season (i.e., from roughly game 16 to game 65, or until the trade deadline in your league), a clearer picture of players will have formed. At the same time, it will be slimmer pickings in terms of waiver wire upgrades. This is when I usually like to make trades, seizing upon sell high and buy low opportunities. If a player is clearly doing poorly and is not in a situation that looks like it will help him snap out of his funk, then I do think about cutting bait. For example, if a player is mired in the bottom six and getting PP scraps, chances are I can find a waiver wire upgrade. Also, this is the stage where, if I reached for someone who clearly isn't working out, I likely cut bait, as the reality is most "reaches" don't pan out, but that makes it easier to drop them.

When it gets to the last 20% or so of the season, that's when I look at things like the schedule to see if teams have an imbalance in terms of games left or if some teams have a tougher schedule ahead of them in terms of opponents or – in a normal campaigns – away games. By this time the spot in which you drafted a player should have zero impact on your decisions. Too often even at this point of the season teams will cling to their top draft picks since they still equate that with likelihood of success. Don't fall into that trap. This is also a time at which young players can hit a wall; so if a young player is slowing, don't be afraid to pull the plug. Also, this is when NHL playoff positioning matters, as strong teams can rest their older players and/or their goalies, whereas teams who are out of it will be more inclined to give younger players a chance to step up. All those are factors, in addition to stats and luck metrics, when deciding whether to drop a player at that stage of the season.

Topic #7 – In an 8 team, $100M salary cap league categories of G, A, +/-, PIM, PPPts, SOG, HIT, W, SV%, GAA, and SO, a GM needs to get to 4 total keepers, with each keeper's 2021-22 salary counting against the league's cap and needing to be kept in the round he was drafted, such that there would be no draft pick in that round and where no two players can be kept from the same round unless the GM trades for an extra pick in that round. Given this, which 4 of these players should be kept (2021-22 salaries listed, as well as round in which they'd need to be retained):

Forwards

Andrei Svechnikov (RFA – Round 1)
Alexis Lafreniere (0.925M – Round 2)
Jonathan Huberdeau ($5.9M – Round 4)
Gabriel Landeskog (UFA – Round 8)
Joel Farabee ($0.925M – Round 12)
Mitch Marner ($10.983M – Round 13)
Trevor Zegras (0.925M – Round 17)
Jesse Puljujarvi ($1.175M – Round 19)
Josh Anderson ($5.5M – Round 20)
Brandon Tanev ($3.5M – Round 24)
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (UFA – Round 24)
Anze Kopitar ($10.0M – Round 24)
Alex DeBrincat ($6.4M – Round 24)

Defensemen

Adam Boqvist ($0.894M – Round 5)
Shea Theodore ($5.2M – Round 9)
Mattias Ekholm ($3.75M – Round 9)
Bowen Byram ($0.894M – Round 14)
Ryan Pulock ($5.0M – Round 23)
Justin Faulk ($6.5M – Round 24)
Jamie Drysdale (0.925M – Round 24)
Jakob Chychrun ($4.6M – Round 24)
Keith Yandle ($6.35M – Round 24)
Aaron Ekblad ($7.5M – Round 24)

Goalies

Igor Shesterkin (RFA – Round 3)
Connor Hellebuyck ($6.166M – Round 10)
Kevin Lankinen ($0.8M – Round 24)
Kaapo Kahkonen ($0.725M – Round 24)
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen ($0.778M Round 24)

Based on draft patterns, highly touted, inexpensive prospects go early and expensive players go much later than they would if there was no cap. That is important in making decisions, as is the fact that unless a trade is made only one – if any – of 11 players in Round 24 can be kept.

Looking first at the plethora of Round 24 options, I like DeBrincat best, although there is some temptation to hold Kahkonen or Drysdale. Although not a cap bargain, DeDrincat looks like the real deal in terms of production; so, he's likely one of my four. If there are not enough other options, perhaps Kahkonen or Drysdale could be revisited, with the idea being the GM could trade for an extra 24th round pick.

Hellebuyck seems like a no brainer, as although he is expensive he's a workhorse and, if past patterns recur, should perform better in 2021-22 than he's done this season. Shesterkin would be tempting if he still had another year on his ELC; however, he'll be due for a pretty good raise and is not a great bargain at round three.

I also really like Theodore, who has proven in 2020-21 that his 2020 playoff breakthrough was not fluke. Yes, he's lousy in Hits and PIM; however, those categories can be covered by drafting cheap bangers.

For the last spot, although keeping Huberdeau would mean $23.66M of the team's cap would be devoted to its four keepers, I think he probably should be the pick. For a player of his caliber, his cap hit is a bargain, as you're getting a downside of 15+ points per million in cap hit, which is really solid. And while he's not a great round bargain, that just underscores him being worth his cap hit. More on Huberdeau in the next topic.

If there is concern about too much cap space being used by just four keepers, a guy to consider is Farabee, whom I discussed above, noting that I thought that metrics suggest he should be a 70+ point player next season, with high upside. His round is decent but his cap hit is superb, although he'll be due for a raise in 2022 and if he plays as well as I think he will he could earn a contract comparable to what DeBrincat received, which suddenly would make Farabee far less of a bargain. As for Drysdale and Kahkonen, it's not clear enough whether they'll pay dividends to justify holding them in a keep four league.

In the end, I like Huberdeau and his surefire production at, when you boil it down, a reasonable salary and DeBrincat at a slightly higher salary but great round. Yes, it will strap this team for cap space; but if indeed the team comprises 28 players as are listed above, then having $76.34M to spend on 24 players is not that much different than having $80-81M to spend as would occur if Farabee is kept instead of Huberdeau or DeBrincat. In fact, it's a savings of roughly $0.25M per player. I realize that adds up when talking about 24 players; however, I think it's still right to go with these four given all the factors involved.

Topic #8 – In a points-only league (but with a bonus for PPPts) with 25 player rosters and 15 keepers, a team in first place is contemplating a trade of Sebastian Aho and John Carlson to acquire Jonathan Huberdeau and John Klingberg. Is it a trade that should be made?

If the trade was proposed this time last season, I'm pretty sure it would've rightfully elicited an immediate and emphatic no. However, with Aho stuck in neutral and Carlson, although still playing at an elite level, now 31 years old, coupled with Klingberg looking more like the Klingberg of old and Huberdeau right at or near a 90-point scoring pace for the third straight season despite not being tethered to Aleksander Barkov, it's no longer an easy assessment.

I discussed Carlson in my last Forum Buzz column, where I noted that counting this season (if he keeps up his scoring pace) he’ll have three of the 12 instances of a defenseman scoring at a 0.85 points per game pace from age 29 to age 31 dating back to 2000-01. Sounds great, right? The issue is looking back to 2000-01 at total instances of defensemen scoring at or above that pace in their age 32 season – which 2021-22 will be for Carlson – or later, we get a grand total of ten, or two less than there were in a three-year age span. Only two of those ten have occurred since 2011-12, with those being Mark Giordano and Brent Burns in 2018-19, and look at what's happened to them since then. Despite how well Carlson is still playing, he does indeed have a shelf life, especially given he’s on a team where the core trio of forwards (Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie) are all 33-35 years old. Those hoping to sell high on Carlson could have less time left to do so than they might have thought.

As for Huberdeau, I covered him in an earlier mailbag, which was written when Huberdeau was above a 100-point scoring pace. A key to trying to determine his trajectory was to look at other instances of forwards who, like Huberdeau, scored at a 90+ point pace for the first time at age 25, which also happened to mark his first point per game campaign. Going back to 1990-91, only two other wingers, also like Huberdeau, hit 90+ in their first point per game campaign at age 25 or later, namely Gary Roberts, who went on to have 84 points in 77 games at age 27 but then was plagued by injuries which cut his career short, and John LeClair, who went on to have four seasons of 77-97 points. What this is shows Huberdeau can continue to be elite; but expecting much more from him would be a stretch, as has already been shown by his scoring rate coming back to earth.

One key with Klingberg is he'll be a UFA after next season, and almost assuredly will take his talent elsewhere. Whatever team inks him will allow Klingberg to thrive offensively, as that will be what he's specifically signed to do. Yes, Klingberg will be 30 once he's signed his UFA deal; but he also entered the league at age 22, and he scored at a 50-point pace in each of his first five seasons, with the last two defensemen to have done that even in four of their first five years despite entering the league at age 22+ being Chris Chelios, who produced well until his mid-30s, and Steve Duchene, who put up very solid numbers until age 32. The fact that Klingberg was so consistent despite entering the NHL late actually might actually bode well for him to produce good numbers after signing a UFA deal at age 30, on top of the likelihood that he'll be deployed very favorably.

Then there's Aho, who showed so much early promise but hasn't taken that next step for the second straight season, this despite a higher shooting percentage in both of these last two campaigns and having identical PP deployment. Looking at players dating back to 2000-01 who, like Aho, had a season of 82+ points, 240+ SOG and 12.0+ SH% by the age of 21, we get Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Steven Stamkos, Alex Ovechkin, Eric Staal, Connor McDavid, and Ilya Kovalchuk, each of whom either went on have at least one season of 100+ points and/or two or more seasons of 90+ points. It's hard to argue with these comparables.

Although the forum was resoundingly in favor of keeping Aho and Carlson, I think it's a close call and boils down to whether Aho can indeed rise to the levels of those comparable players versus whether Carlson will start to see his numbers crater while Klingberg's rise after he's a UFA. To me it's a coin flip. When that's the case in assessing a potential trade, I usually think it is best to stand pat, so indeed in the end I'd probably stick with Carlson and Aho.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of the mailbag has room for a few more questions, so if you want my opinion on specific players or your teams, go ahead and ask away. To get your question(s) to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.