Wild West: Re-Visiting the Pre-Season Risers & Fallers List

Grant Campbell

2021-04-14

Weekly Western Leaders (to April 13th, 2021) – in bold leads the NHL

Goals – 25 –  Mikko Rantanen – Colorado (32Auston Matthews)

Assists – 46Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Points – 69Connor McDavid – Edmonton

PPP – 26Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Shots on Goal – 158 – Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado (174Brady Tkachuk)

Shooting % (min 42 SOG) – 24.6 – Joonas Donskoi – Colorado (26.1 – Colin Blackwell – NY Rangers)

PIM – 68Mathieu Olivier – Nashville

Best plus/minus – plus 25 – Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado (plus 29 – Joel Edmundson)

Worst plus/minus – minus 17 – Quinn Hughes – Vancouver, Mattias Janmark – Vegas (minus 33Rasmus Dahlin)

Hits – 168 – Jani Hakanpaa – (with Anaheim) (197Brady Tkachuk)

Blocked shots – 125Alec Martinez – Vegas

FOW – 529Ryan O’Reilly – St. Louis (541Patrice Bergeron)

FOL – 387 – Bo Horvat – Vancouver (429Sidney Crosby)

FO% (min 200 FO) – 61.6 – Pierre-Edouard Bellemare – Colorado (62.6 Patrice Bergeron)

Giveaways – 55 – Leon Draisaitl – Edmonton (70 Thomas Chabot)

Takeaways – 42Mark Stone – Vegas

Highest Skater GAR (goals above replacement) – 17.7Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Lowest Skater GAR – minus 5.9 – Kurtis MacDermid – Los Angeles (minus 6.7Nikita Gusev)

Highest xGAR (expected goals above replacement) – 16.6 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton (22.2Auston Matthews)

Lowest xGAR – minus 7.4Duncan Keith – Chicago

Highest CF% (min 24 GP) – 63.3Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado

Lowest CF% (min 24 GP) – 37.4Devin Shore – Edmonton

Highest PDO (min 24 GP) – 108.0 – Carson Soucy – Minnesota

Lowest PDO (min 24 GP) – 91.0Robert Bortuzzo – St. Louis

Goalie wins – 25Philipp Grubauer – Colorado (25Andrei Vasilevskiy)

Save percentage (min 16 starts) – 92.9 – Juuse Saros – Nashville (93.2Andrei Vasilevskiy)

Quality starts – 22Philipp Grubauer – Colorado

Quality start % (min 16 starts) – 67.9 – Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas (73.7Chris Driedger)

Highest Goalie GAR – 21.3 – Connor Hellebuyck – Winnipeg (28.4Andrei Vasilevskiy)

Lowest Goalie GAR – minus 7.9 – Ryan Miller – Anaheim, Ville Husso – St. Louis (minus 19.6Carter Hart)

Shutouts – 5Philipp Grubauer – Colorado, Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas

For those that have read my writing for a while, I like to occasionally revisit articles that I've done before and check in with where the players are at in terms of where I thought they'd be and where they are.

I don't usually know offhand where these will go before I begin writing them so that aspect is part of the appeal. I certainly don't mind being wrong (and hopefully learn from it) but like most people, I do enjoy being correct or on the right track.

All the players below were listed as risers or fallers before the start of the season.

Just a reminder that this was only looking at players that had more than 25 NHL games.

Anaheim Ducks

Risers –

Maxime Comtois was rising fast with 19 points in his first 29 games this year but has slowed recently with six in his past 13 games. He still has a 0.60 pts/game pace after 42 games, which is over his career average of 0.46/game.

Troy Terry has increased his output slightly this season to 0.43 pts/game after 35 games. His career average was 0.34/game.

Sam Steel has taken a small step back in terms of production as he only has 10 points in 31 games this season, which is good for 0.32 pts/game, where his career average going into the year was 0.38/game.

Josh Mahura still can't secure a regular role into his third NHL season and has only played 11 games, averaging just under 16 minutes per game. There is cause for concern on your trajectory when you can't beat out Ben Hutton for ice time.

Sonny Milano has only played six games this season and at 24 years of age, I don't think he can be included on this side of the list any longer. He is just fighting for an NHL job at this point.

Fallers –

Ryan Getzlaf is no surprise to anyone with only 15 points and three goals in 37 games for a 0.41 pts/game which is a sharp decline from his 0.61/game of last season.

Arizona Coyotes 

Risers –

Lawson Crouse has gone backwards in his fourth-year breakout as he only has three goals and nine points in 40 games which is good for a 0.23 pts/game pace. His career-high was 0.38/game in 66 games last season.

Conor Garland has come through this season with 31 points in 42 games for a 0.74/game pace eclipsing his career-high of 0.57/game from last year. He's playing almost four minutes more per game than prior high in his career.

Nick Schmaltz seems to have plateaued at this point in his career with 0.60 pts/game after seasons of 0.68, 0.64 and 0.63 the three years prior. I might have been too optimistic that he could push through the envelope to increase his production. Nothing wrong with a 50-55 point player on your roster.

Christian Dvorak has maintained his production from last year's 0.54 pts/game to 0.53 this season. There are still signs that he can improve even more as his ice time has increased by almost two minutes per game.

Jakob Chychrun has perhaps been one of the biggest risers in the West with 12 goals and 29 points after 43 games good for a 0.67 pts/game pace. He has matched his career-high for goals and each point he gets the rest of this season sets his career-high in points. He has arrived.

Fallers –

Phil Kessel has certainly stepped up from his awful season last year of 14 goals and 38 points in 70 games. He has put up 15 goals and 33 points in 43 games, good for 0.77 pts/game, but he is far removed from his usual point per game that was the norm only two seasons before.

Derek Stepan was sent to Ottawa and has played 20 games with one goal and six points. The 30-year old Stepan seems to be running out of gas in the NHL, and is now out for the year with a shoulder injury.

Alex Goligoski used to be a sure thing for 0.45 pts/game over his career including last season, but this year he has one goal and 12 points in 43 games which is good for 0.28 pts/game. He is an unrestricted free agent and will probably find himself elsewhere next season at the age of 35.

Jason Demers has seen his production and ice time go down this season and only has three assists in 30 games. He only sees a little more than 17 minutes per night after regularly getting over 20 minutes much of the past seven or eight seasons. At 32 years of age, he has fallen and might have one or two more seasons in him as a depth defender.

Oliver Ekman-Larson was included originally because I didn't think he could ever get back to his career highs in goals and point production. He is having his best point production at 0.58 pts/game since 2015-16 but his two goals in 33 games pale in comparison to his two 20-goal seasons or his eight 10-goal seasons. He just doesn't shoot the puck as often as he used to.

Calgary Flames 

Risers –

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Dillon Dube has seen a production increase from 0.36 pts/game to 0.43 with 16 points in 37 games. I had envisioned a little more increase but we might have to wait until next season.

Andrew Mangiapane is much like Dube, in that he has increased his production from 0.47 to 0.52 pts/game, but there was hope for more, but that could be said for the Flames as a whole.

Rasmus Andersson has increased his output from 0.31/game last season to 0.38 this year. The concern with Andersson is that he was at 0.50/game after his first 28 games and had been given the keys to the first unit of the PP and he might have lost them. He might not be the guy to run that unit and be a 40-point defender moving forward. Be wary.

Matthew Tkachuk has had a disappointing season with only 10 goals and 29 points in 42 games which is his lowest production (0.69/game) since his rookie season (0.63/game). I've been thinking that he has underperformed since his 34 goals and 77-point season in 2018-19 but I'm starting to think I might be wrong that he can produce to a higher level than that. The Flames and their fans would welcome back the production of last season with open arms.

Fallers –

Mark Giordano is falling but hitting branches on the way down. He has got the first unit of the PP back recently and has seven goals and 20 points in 42 games (0.48/game), which is his lowest production since 2012-13. The 37-year old isn't giving up without a fight.

Mikael Backlund has only fallen slightly in terms of production from 0.64/game to 0.63 with eight goals and 25 points in 40 games. His ice time of 17:20/game is his lowest since 2015-16 and that is the concern moving forward.

David Rittich was always going to struggle to get starts when the team signed Jacob Markstrom to his six-year deal. As an unrestricted free agent, Rittich hasn't made the most of his games when he has been in the crease and has ended up in Toronto.

Chicago Blackhawks 

Risers –

Kirby Dach broke his wrist before the start of this season and missed 34 games. He has played nine games with five points but it is just good to see him back and healthy as he was rumored to be out for the year.

Alexander Nylander is another victim of injury, having torn his ACL before the regular season.

Adam Boqvist has seen his point production rise from 0.31 pts/game to 0.47 with 15 points in 32 games this season. He is playing more lately and he is on the right track.

Collin Delia had two bad starts at the beginning of the season and never got his crease back from Kevin Lankinen. Not a riser thing to do.

I had both Dominik Kubalik and Alex Debrincat on the bubble as risers but thought that Kubalik wouldn't score 30 goals again (on a 27-goal pace) and Debrincat wouldn't score 40 again (on a 43-goal pace). I was wrong.

Fallers –

Duncan Keith was my only faller with the Blackhawks and he hasn't disappointed. His point production is at 0.30/game which is a career-low, but the 37-year still is an important player as he logs almost 24 minutes per game still.

Colorado Avalanche

Risers –

Samuel Girard has risen to a level I certainly did not envision. He has 31 points in 40 games good for 0.78 pts/game up from his 0.49/game last season. I thought he would settle in around 0.5 to 0.6 pts/game but this season is impressive.

Nathan MacKinnon was only mentioned because I thought he still had a 100-point season in him after years of 93, 95 and 99. He won't get there this season obviously but his 1.37 pts/game after 38 games is slightly ahead of the pace of last season where he had 93 points in 68 games (1.35).

Cale Makar was mentioned but I didn't think he would match his production of 0.88 pts/game but he has slightly exceeded it this season with 30 points in 30 games all while battling injury and Covid stoppages.

Fallers –

Tyson Jost's production has fallen this season with only 0.28 pts/game in 40 games after seasons ranging from 0.34 to 0.37 in the three seasons prior. He has become a pretty good defensive player, but that doesn't help us in fantasy pools.

Three players I had on the cusp were:

Gabriel Landeskog has 41 points in 40 games and is still playing very well in his contract year. The team captain is driving up the price of his contract with each game remaining.

Ryan Graves had moved away from his defensive partner Cale Makar for most of the season (but they are back together at the moment). As a result, the plus/minus leader in the NHL last season (plus 40) was a minus-5 after 18 games but is plus 17 in his past 23 games. His point production has gone down from 0.38 pts/game to 0.32/game this season. He is regaining his form of last season.

Brandon Saad is still a solid producer with 13 goals in 41 games and 0.54 pts/game, but his ice time in Colorado is just above 14 minutes per game, a far cry from the 17 minutes he has seen on average over the prior seven seasons.

Dallas Stars

Risers –

Denis Gurianov had a great start to this season with 11 points in 12 games and was looking like a lock for this list. Unfortunately, in the next 29 games he has two goals and eight points. Overall his point production of 0.46 pts/game is slightly higher than last season's 0.45 but it is falling with 15 games remaining.

Roope Hintz is what these lists are all about. He has 32 points in 29 games (1.10 pts/game) which is double from last season's 0.55. He has seen about three minutes more of ice time per night and is seeing more time on the first unit of the PP.

Miro Heiskanen has matched his production from last with 0.51 pts/game after 41 games. Unfortunately, there were 27 playoff games in between where Heiskanen had 26 points and boosted expectations through the roof. He is still on track, but it won't be as quick as most people thought.

Fallers

Jamie Benn is holding steady at 0.62 pts/game after last season's 0.57. The problem in fantasy is that no matter how good a player he is away from the puck his production has fallen for a former point per game player with five seasons remaining at $9.5 million AAV.

Joe Pavelski has slowed down quite a bit after his rocket of a start to this season where he had eight goals and 17 points after his first 12 games. In his 29 games since, he has eight goals and 21 points. Overall he still has 0.93 pts/game and 16 goals after 41 games, which is a major comeback after last season with 14 goals in 67 games and only 31 points.

Alexander Radulov has only played 11 games this season but gave hope for Dallas fans with 12 points in those games. His 0.57 pts/game last season in 60 games were perhaps too low, but he is not the point per game player he was.

Tyler Seguin is unlikely to play at all this season and has missed all 40 games.

Ben Bishop has missed all 40 games to date and is expected back at some point. Whether he can take starts away from Anton Khudobin or Jake Oettinger is another matter.

Anton Khudobin has been decent this season, but has battled a few injuries and has struggled at times. At 34-years old and becoming a 1A starter for the first time in his career, some struggles were to be expected but he has been better than average, just not as good as he was the past two seasons in a more limited role. 

John Klingberg has somehow kept Miro Heiskanen at bay for two seasons when most thought Heiskanen would replace him on the first unit of the PP a hundred games ago. Klingberg has quietly rolled along this season at a 0.68 pts/game pace after 40 games.

Edmonton Oilers 

Risers –

Tyson Barrie has settled well into the Edmonton lineup and has 35 points in 42 games (0.83 pts/game), which is very close to his career-high of 57 points in 68 games in 2017-18 with Colorado. Not surprisingly 16 of his 35 points have come on the PP.

Darnell Nurse has benefitted the most from the injury to Oscar Klefbom and has 13 goals and 28 points in 42 games (0.67 pts/game) which shatters his career-high for goals. More impressively he has accomplished this mostly at even strength with only one goal and five points on the PP.

Kailer Yamamoto was never going to match his 0.96 pts/game from his 26 points in 27 games last season, but he has disappointed a little this season with only eight goals and 18 points in 40 games. His time with either Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid has dried up a little but he is still on the rise overall.

Jesse Puljujarvi‘s rise has been slower than expected this season but it is still happening. He has nine goals in 41 games and a 0.37 pts/game which is higher than his 0.27/game in his 139 NHL games prior. He is being allowed to succeed and that is an improvement on his prior stint with the Oilers.

Connor McDavid has improved his production each of his six seasons so far and is at 1.64/game this season with 69 points in 42 games. I should have had him listed.

Fallers –

James Neal had 19 goals in his first 45 games last season. Since then he has played only 28 games and has three goals. He only draws into the lineup occasionally and his time in Edmonton is almost done.

Zack Kassian has battled injury this season but his production of two goals and five points in 24 games is still of concern as last season was perhaps his best in the NHL with 15 goals and 34 points in 59 games (0.58 pts/game). His ice time has been reduced by over three minutes per game and he is only generating 0.6 SOG/game.

Alex Chiasson has 17 goals in the past 96 games and 10 of those goals have been scored on the PP. His production at even strength over the past two years has contributed only seven goals in those 96 games. His time in Edmonton will more than likely be done after this season as well.

Mikko Koskinen was thrust into a starting role for the first twenty games of the season and had moments but it's pretty clear he is not a starter in the NHL at 32 years of age and is much better suited as a backup.

Mike Smith missed the first twenty games of the year and since his return, he has played very well. He has a positive goals-saved-above-average number for the first time in three seasons (2.63 GSAA). His play has started to balance out to more normal levels and that should be a concern for the Oilers as they head into the playoffs again with this combo.

Next week we will look at the rest of the West. Thank you very much for reading and if you have any comments or suggestions please message me or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.

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