Ramblings: Blues with the Blues, Sprong Replaces Ovechkin, More Streamer Suggestions (Apr 25)
Ian Gooding
2021-04-25
In the early game, Bryan Rust's 20th goal of the season helped the Penguins to a 4-2 win over New Jersey. Rust now has goals in three consecutive games with five points over that span. And now back-to-back 20-goal seasons.
Cody Ceci, who assisted on Rust's goal, now has 11 points (2 G, 9 A) over his last 14 games. The Penguins play again on Sunday, which should make him a possible streamer add. "But Ceci is terrible!" you say. Okay, Ceci doesn't receive any power-play time, so there's that. Pairing with Mike Matheson has helped, though. Over his last 13 games, Matheson has 11 points (3 G, 8 A). That should make Matheson another Sunday streaming option against Boston. And Matheson does receive a bit of power-play time. Never mind the names and your opinion of the players – add them even if there's a small chance they can help your team.
Sidney Crosby‘s empty-net goal with just 0.1 seconds remaining matched Rust for 20 goals. Unlike Rust and just about every other player who has played the game, Crosby has now reached the 20-goal mark 13 times. Because Crosby has reached 55 points and can play no more than 55 games this season, he has also reached a point-per-game for the 16th consecutive season. Only Wayne Gretzky and Gordie Howe have more point-per-game seasons. If Crosby's career suddenly ended tomorrow, he'd be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
Yegor Sharangovich recorded another assist, giving him six points over his last five games. I mentioned him yesterday when I was looking at hot players from Frozen Tools. Go ahead and pick him up if he's available, particularly for a match against Philly. He played for over 20 minutes again on Saturday, a number that he has surpassed four of the past five games. And if you don't pick him up, this song will get stuck in your head. It pops into mine whenever I see the name Yegor Sharangovich.
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Colorado scored twice in the first three minutes of their game against St. Louis and it appeared that the rout was on. But then it was former Avalanche Ryan O'Reilly to the rescue. The Blues captain responded with two goals later in the period just three minutes apart. He would eventually end up with a hat trick plus an assist in an eventual 5-3 win. After scoring just 12 goals all of last season, O'Reilly has hit the 20-goal mark for the fifth time in his last six seasons. In addition, his 0.96 PTS/GP (43 PTS in 45 GP) is the highest points-per-game output of his career.
Because someone on Twitter asked me about dropping Vladimir Tarasenko, I'll report that he has just three goals in 21 games since his return. I’ll admit that’s not a question I thought I’d be answering. With no goals (or points) on Saturday, Tarasenko has not scored a goal in his last six games. There was no lack of effort on Saturday, as he took five shots. We wondered whether Tarasenko would be the same player after multiple shoulder surgeries. The 30 goals that he scored for five consecutive seasons might now be out of reach going forward.
Brayden Schenn is a frequent linemate of Tarasenko, so his recent slump could be related to Tarasenko's return. Schenn has not scored a goal in 19 games (and counting). Prior to that, Schenn had scored 12 goals in 26 games while shooting nearly 18%. He's normally a 12% shooter, which is where he is now. Now that he has regressed fully, Schenn might appear to be due. However, Schenn's shot total is slightly down (about 1.6 SOG/GP during the goal slump), so don't expect a Mika Zibanejad-sized swing the other way. At least Schenn recorded assists on both O'Reilly goals in the first period.
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No Alex Ovechkin, no problem for the Washington Capitals. One-time prospect Daniel Sprong scored twice to go with a plus-3 in an important 6-3 win over the Islanders. After being a healthy scratch on Thursday, Sprong sprung back into the lineup and onto a line with Evgeny Kuznetsov and Tom Wilson. Sprong has been trying his best to score, having taken at least three shots in each of his last four appearances. Sprong might be worth a stream or short-term flier while Ovechkin is out of the lineup. As for Ovie, he's normally very durable, so expect this to be a day-to-day thing for now. Unfortunate timing if you need him for a fantasy playoff matchup, though.
Kuznetsov assisted on both of Sprong's goals and scored a goal of his own, so the line arrangement also seemed to work for him. After an underwhelming campaign slowed by COVID, Kuznetsov has elevated his game recently with seven points (2 G, 5 A) over his last four games.
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I don't usually dive into 2-1 games on busy Saturdays, but the Dallas/Detroit game was particularly interesting. Jamie Benn scored the overtime winner for the Stars, who outshot the Red Wings 52-17 in this game. In fact, shots were 41-6 Dallas after two periods before the third period was more evenly played. Jonathan Bernier deserved better in this game, making 50 saves for the Wings. That is tied for the highest single-game total among any goalie this season.
Bernier has been a quality goalie this season, as his 59.1 QS% is only slightly below that of Igor Shesterkin and Andrei Vasilevskiy and slightly above that of Tuukka Rask and Thatcher Demko. Bernier is a UFA this offseason, so I wonder if his value would improve with a move to a better team… or if the Wings take a huge leap forward next season.
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There were some worries that Mark Scheifele was battling an injury, but it turned out that he was benched for most of the second period on Saturday. Scheifele ended up with 17 minutes of icetime in this game, which is a low total for him. Scheifele entered this game with 16 points in his last 15 games, so this was another case of a coach (Paul Maurice) being unhappy with a player's defensive play and compete level. Or to put it another way, the coach doesn't care about your fantasy team because he's worrying about other aspects of the team's game. Nothing to worry about fantasy-wise, though.
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The Ottawa goalie situation was a bit difficult to follow on Saturday. Anton Forsberg was supposed to start, but he was pulled at the last minute because of a lower-body injury. So Matt Murray was summoned into action, but he left the game with some kind of injury after taking a tripping penalty. So in came Marcus Hogberg, who dressed as the backup at the very last minute. Murray, who posted a 31-save shutout in his last full start and entered the game with three consecutive wins, should be considered day-to-day. Had Hogberg been injured as well, the Sens wouldn’t have gone to a Zamboni driver or local university hockey goalie as their emergency backup. Instead, they reportedly had Artem Anisimov as the EBUG! Anisimov was a healthy scratch for this game, so the Sens would not have lost a forward if he had to suit up.
Braden Holtby is now 3-0 since the Canucks returned from COVID, posting quality starts in all three games. Thatcher Demko appeared tired after his start on Thursday, and he is believed to still be battling the aftereffects of COVID. With Holtby playing so well, there may now be an unexpected goalie controversy for the team that has the most games left to play. The Canucks have five back-to-backs remaining, so Holtby seems to be worth a pickup no matter how the goaltending situation plays out.
Despite the win, there's some potential bad news for the Canucks. According to Chris Johnston, Elias Pettersson is doubtful to return this season. This might take a leap of faith, but single-season owners who can't store Petey on IR are probably safe to drop him at this point.
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I've got a new strategy that I'm hoping will help make your player decisions easier. I've spent hours on this with multiple regressions, spreadsheets, charts, graphs, and… wait, who am I kidding? I've done none of that here. But based on my experience, take my word that this works.
Have you ever heard of that test-taking strategy that suggested that your first answer on a multiple-choice question is the answer that you should stick with? Use that strategy when you're picking between two or more players. Anecdotally, when I've switched players at the last moment, I've noticed that more often than not I've kissed potential points goodbye.
The situation has to do with the Coyotes/Kings game. Darcy Kuemper was in my starting lineup. Cal Petersen was on my bench because Petersen had started the night before and I figured Jonathan Quick would start. But just minutes before 7 pm PT, I noticed that the Kings announced Petersen as the starter for the second consecutive game – news that's worth mentioning here. The Kings are playing at home, but they're on the second of back-to-backs. Since I have only one goalie slot remaining, do I make the switch?
I decided to stick with my first choice, and my inaction paid off. Kuemper posted a 26-save shutout, which was his second shutout of the season. I had much higher hopes for Kuemper that he has delivered this season, as he has missed time due to injury and his ratios are worse than last season's. It was also his first quality start in his last three games, as he had lost back-to-back games to Minnesota previously. Kuemper is a solid play early next week when the Coyotes face San Jose, but Vegas will be a tougher test later in the week.
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The Carolina/Florida showdown featured some scoring among blueliners.
Dougie Hamilton scored a pair of goals, giving him eight goals and 39 points on the season. He's a top-5 scoring defenseman who leads all blueliners with 153 shots.
MacKenzie Weegar had quite the multicategory league day. Not only did he score a goal to go with three assists, but he was also a plus-3 with four shots, seven hits, and seven blocked shots! The only category that was missing was the power-play goals, and that's because he receives virtually no power-play time (just five seconds in this game). Even with Aaron Ekblad out of the lineup, as newly acquired Brandon Montour has picked up the second-unit minutes.
Speaking of power-play time, Sam Bennett is on the Panthers first-unit power play. Even though he doesn't have any power-play points as a member of the Panthers, he has six points in five games since making the move from Calgary to Florida. It's still quite early, but maybe all he needed was a change of scenery. He's already getting scooped up in a lot of leagues (44% in Yahoo leagues now), which makes sense now because he has tremendous upside in bangers formats.
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I mentioned Kirill Kaprizov yesterday, and he was at it again on Saturday. He scored again on Saturday, giving him goals in five consecutive games. Over his last four games, Kaprizov has taken at least four shots. The Wild, who have now clinched a playoff spot in the West Division, no longer seem like that dull trap team that they've become known for, now that they have one of the league's most exciting players.
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Just when you think Tyler Toffoli will finally regress, he scores again. Toffoli scored again on Saturday, giving him goals in three consecutive games and 24 on the season (tied for fifth in the NHL) in just 43 games. As I've said, that number will probably fall next season, as a 40+ goal pace seems like quite an outlier for him.
With Carey Price on the shelf and Jake Allen in need of a rest on back-to-backs, Cayden Primeau started his first game of the season. He allowed four goals on 33 shots.
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Frozen Tools streamers that you may want to consider for Sunday:
Jeremy Swayman is expected to start in net for the Bruins. The Penguins will be a tough matchup, but Swayman has five quality starts in his last six games. You could do worse if you need a goalie in a pinch.
Sam Reinhart is still rostered in fewer than half of Yahoo leagues. He's coming off a hat trick on Friday, so add him if he's somehow still available.
Alex Killorn has five points in his last five games. He can be a bit hot and cold, but he seems to be going at the moment.
Also see Ceci, Matheson, and Sharangovich above.
For help planning for next week, see our Looking Ahead article. Or message me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding and I'll try to get back to you.