Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. There were significant concerns about Minnesota’s centre position this year, especially after Marco Rossi was lost for the year. That made me nervous about Kevin Fiala‘s production, and those nerves were justified, as he had just 11 points in his first 20 games. In his last 28 games, he has 28 points, to go with over three shots per game. That is despite playing under 17 minutes a night and often with Ryan Hartman as his centre. What could he do next year with Rossi as his centre? Fiala is truly a special offensive talent and it’s nice to see him turn his season around. (may6)

2. With two assists on Friday, Filip Hronek snapped a six-game pointless drought. Hmmm, I could have used those assists last week before my team got eliminated in head-to-head. Anyway, with Detroit having mercifully played its last game of the season yesterday, Hronek finished as the team leader in scoring with 25 points, while no other active Red Wing had more than 20 points. Hronek led the Wings in scoring while finishing with a sub-40-point pace over a full season.

3. Someone suggested recently that I should move Joe Pavelski out of the Top 100 Roto Rankings because he was slowing down after an unexpectedly strong start. He wasn’t going to keep up with nine goals and 17 points over his first 12 games for sure. On Friday, Pavelski scored two goals and added two assists with a plus-5, giving him his third four-point game of the season and first since early February. Pavelski now has 24 goals and 50 points in 54 games, so he's not going anywhere. 

4. The main beneficiary of Alex Ovechkin‘s absence from the lineup (now about two weeks) has been Daniel Sprong, who now has six goals in his last seven games. Currently he’s on what should be considered the Capitals’ top scoring line with Nicklas Backstrom and Anthony Mantha. Sprong is also seeing time on PP1, which would have a lot to do with no Ovechkin or Evgeny Kuznetsov in the lineup.

5. In case you missed it, Anthony Beauvillier has 21 points in his last 24 games. A total of 13 of these points are goals, including five over his last six games. Remember that he scored nine goals in 22 playoff games last season, so he appears to be heating up at the right time for the Islanders. (may7)

6. In a season with a lot more negative than positive for the Canucks, Nils Hoglander has been one bright spot with his never-ending hustle. With 24 points in 48 games, the rookie would be on pace for 40 points over a full season.

7. Jeremy Swayman has looked nothing short of fantastic in his brief NHL time. In nine outings, Swayman has a 1.44 goals-against average and a 0.946 save percentage. Yet the Bruins will likely begin the playoffs with Tuukka Rask as starter and Jaroslav Halak backing up as per usual. (may7)

8. Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov are reportedly ready for the playoffs. Both players are currently out of the lineup, so they will provide a massive boost for the Lightning in their effort to repeat as Stanley Cup champions. Having no salary cap in the playoffs makes that all possible, of course. Kucherov might be forgotten about in playoff pools because he didn’t play all season, but draft him where you would normally pick a top-tier Lightning forward.

9. Fantasy owners always wonder whether a player is a product of his environment or his own talent. This year, Brayden Point has played zero minutes with Nikita Kucherov and only 222 of his 723 5-on-5 minutes (roughly 31 percent) with Steven Stamkos. Otherwise, Point has been carrying players like Palat, Johnson, and Barré-Boulet all season.

Despite the lack of star-power up front, Point has as many points as Patrice Bergeron and John Tavares. It is a far cry from the 92 points a couple years ago, but that he’d be on pace for 73 points in a full year with no Kucherov and very little Stamkos bodes very well for Point’s production floor moving forward. (may6)

10. Detroit’s top-6 could be very good next year. Joe Veleno is in the fold, Tyler Bertuzzi (who actually had back surgery a few days ago) will be healthy, a full year of Jakub Vrana, and even Lucas Raymond may make an appearance. Take those four, add Dylan Larkin and Filip Zadina, and there could be something there.

Now, Veleno has to pan out and Zadina has to show something and Raymond has to hit his upside and on and on… But the pieces are there, at least, for a reasonable top-6. That hasn’t been the case for five years. (may6)

11. Alex Newhook made his debut for the Avs last Wednesday, playing down the lineup. The Avs are deep enough that I don’t expect he’ll crack the regular playoff lineup without injury, but we’ll see how this shakes out. It is always nice having a bevy of options to turn to, and Newhook tore up the AHL with five goals and nine points in eight games. The 16^th overall pick from 2019 is a big part of their future, and it’s just nice seeing him with the big club for now. (may6)

12. Adam Gaudette had problems with his digestive system to the point where he couldn’t eat and would involuntarily vomit constantly. He says he’s finally been diagnosed and can finally look forward to a full offseason of training, and the ability to bulk up.

This is an interesting twist here. Gaudette has certainly shown flashes of offensive brilliance, but very inconsistently. It makes sense that he was very inconsistent. This is a name to keep in mind for next season. (may5)

13. I won’t wade into whether Tom Wilson did or didn’t deserve a suspension. All I will say is this: all the slashing, all the cross-checking, all the hits from behind – all of this garbage – is all condoned and sanctioned by both the league and its players. If they didn’t want this behaviour in the game, it wouldn’t be in the game. If players wanted slashing on the hands gone – like really wanted it out of the game – it wouldn’t exist. If players wanted cross-checks to the kidney out of the game, they wouldn’t exist. Players want this. Teams want this. The NHL as an entity wants this. We need to start from that premise. (may5)

14. In isolation, Pavel Buchnevich is deserving of his one-game suspension for smashing Anthony Mantha in the face. However, we all saw how violent that game was, and the Rangers were focused on retribution. I’m willing to bet the Buchnevich incident never would have happened had Wilson received proper discipline, but I guess the league wasn’t too concerned about what would happen next after not suspending Wilson. And no, a choke-slam is not a hockey play, even if Panarin confronted Wilson. (may7)

11. Let's go through some of my preseason predictions to figure out what went right, what went wrong, and how we can learn from some of these mistakes. To start the season’s recap, the place to start is probably our preseason Experts’ Panel. 

I had Connor McDavid picked for both the Hart Trophy and Art Ross, and both of those look likely at this point. Quite frankly, I think picking anyone but him to win either of those two trophies for the foreseeable future is just a mistake. He should be the favourite every year. And, honestly, with Alex Ovechkin getting to the age he is – and all the players around him as well – it’s probably a bad idea to pick anyone but Auston Matthews for the near-term as well. The fact is both those guys are in their prime, those guys have already proven themselves to be in tiers of their own, and there is enough of a supporting cast around both of them to sustain elite production for years. (may4)

15. Next up: Cale Makar for the Norris. I still feel good about that one. He may not win, but I think he’ll get nominated: he was over a point per game as of last Monday afternoon (38 in 37 games), led all defencemen in WAR/60 per Evolving Hockey, and his team looks like an absolute juggernaut. What keeps him from winning, or perhaps getting nominated in the first place, is the fact he missed a dozen games. In a full year, that might not be enough to keep him from the top-3, but in a shortened year he missed basically 20 percent of the season. That might be too many games missed for some voters. I get that argument, but it’s clear Makar has been one of the best defencemen in hockey this year. Something to keep in mind going forward. (may4)

16. I had John Gibson for the Vezina and that’s my first big miss. My reasoning here was, before the season, I saw VGK-COL-STL as the top-3 teams in the West, leaving the fourth spot up for grabs for whichever team has the best season. It didn’t quite work out that way, though COL and VGK are clearly the top two teams in the division. Anaheim, conversely, was the first team in the division eliminated from playoff contention. Gibson has not had a good year by any measure. Early last week, his goals saved above expected was in the negatives while his high-danger save percentage (.812) was between Martin Jones (.813) and Matt Murray (.810). Not where you want to be.

Anaheim is making strides forward but I think I over-estimated where they were in their rebuild. It could be another year of pain coming up, which doesn’t bode well for Gibson’s fantasy value. I still think he’s elite, but the team is far from it, and that’ll make it hard for him to have a lot of said value. (may4)

17. My Calder Trophy pick was Kirill Kaprizov. In an interview in a hometown newspaper, I said I thought he could be a point-per-game player this year. While he won’t get to that level, a good run to finish the year will see him finish with more than 50 points, which is a phenomenal rookie year. Jason Robertson has made a huge push but unless he goes nuclear over the final stretch, it feels like it’s Kaprizov’s to lose.

One thing I wonder is where Igor Shesterkin sits in the Calder race if the Rangers hadn’t started the year with Jack Johnson and Tony DeAngelo on the same defence pair (I know they didn’t play every minute together). They started the year 2-4-2 with losses to New Jersey and Buffalo mixed in there. If they start 4-2-2, they’re still firmly in the playoff race. Alas. (may4)

18. Yesterday I wrote about our preseason Dobber’s Experts’ Panel, and my picks therein. Some were hits, some were misses. Today, I want to go through league award winners. I am going to do this by combing through each of the major awards, picking out who should win, and who will win. ‘Should’ is a subjective term here, as this is just my opinion. So, here are my thoughts for the Norris, you can click on the link ro read the others.

Norris Trophy:
– Who will win: Victor Hedman
– Who should win: Adam Fox

It really does seem that the Norris is turning into some sort of lifetime achievement award over the last half-dozen years or so. Roman Josi probably deserved it last year but you’d likely have to go back to 2014-15 to find a truly deserving winner (Mark Giordano was fine). For that reason, I find it hard to believe Adam Fox will win it this year. Going back to the 2013 lockout, it’s basically just P.K. Subban who showed out as a kid. than that, it’s all guys in their late-20s or 30s, or guys with several years in the league already. It has been really hard for a young guy with no track record to break into the Norris conversation, and I don’t see why that would stop this year.

Hedman is second in points in the league among blue liners, writers absolutely love him, and he has a long track record of excellence. He just hasn’t been as good as Fox this year. Relative to his team, Fox is top-5 in the league by expected goal share while Hedman is at -4 percent. That is a drastic difference in performance. I suspect that if we trade the teams of these two players, and even their ages, some writers would view them differently.

Two guys I think should get consideration are Charlie McAvoy and Cale Makar. Both missed time this year, the latter more than the former, and that probably hurts their cases. But Makar has been arguably the best defenceman in hockey (just with not enough games) and McAvoy has been a top-5 number-1 defenceman. They are both in the mix for me. (may5)

19. Who is Michael Houser? Glad you asked. He has two AHL games in five years, playing almost exclusively in the ECHL, is 28 years old, wasn’t drafted and there he was getting a start in the NHL last Monday. In a hellish season for Buffalo, cool things like this can still happen. The Sabres won that game 4-2 thanks to 34 saves on 36 shots from Houser. Just an incredible story. (may4)

20. After months of rehab from his hip surgery, Tyler Seguin made his season’s debut for the Stars last Monday night. I am not sure there is much fantasy value here for the rest of the year but just to see him on the ice is a great thing. There was a good article over at The Athletic written by Saad Yousuf about Seguin’s road to recovery. It is pretty gnarly but very thorough. For those with subscriptions, I highly recommend it. (may4)

21. I’ll admit I thought Bryan Rust would turn into a pumpkin after a point-per-game pace (56 points in 55 games) last season. That has happened with his assist total, but he has hit 20 goals for the second consecutive season in spite of playing no more than 56 games in either season. (may2)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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