Back when I wrote the Wild West column, I started a series based on Rick Roos and his research on unlikely playoff heroes. He looked at players who were performing better in the playoffs than in their previous regular season. He then attempted to figure out if it was predictive of future performance. I went the other way to look at if there was anything in the season data that we could use to predict which players might be poised to be this year's unlikely playoff hero. That way we could grab them ahead of time for our playoff pools. In most pools managers tend to go deep on a couple of teams and finding the diamond in the rough can certainly boost your potential. I have continued that tradition over the years and have used it to highlight some quality playoff potential.

The end result is a list of players to keep an eye on similar to what Tom has done with his Top 10 Playoff Surprises article so definitely check that out too. Oh and grab Dobber's Playoff Tool as well. It is a very helpful resource when planning your playoff draft.

This week: Unlikely 2021 Playoff Heroes

The below paragraph is an excerpt from that original article and basically sums up what all of the playoff heros had in common.

" An unlikely playoff hero should have played 60+ games in the regular season. The player should be averaging between .4 and .7 points per game, should be shooting around two shots a game, with a least a shoot percentage of 9%, be getting somewhere between 1:00 and 2:15 minutes on the power play, and skating between 13:00 and 17:00 minutes of total time on ice. The data points can fluctuate slightly depending on situation, and players might miss one point by a little, but this is the general target. Perhaps the single most important factor though is that they play for a team that is likely to get about 17 games during the playoffs."

The idea is that an unlikely hero is a player that is already doing something with the opportunity they are being given but has room for growth. That growth could be either in deployment (power play time, or total time on ice), or in favorable spikes of luck (team/personal shooting percentage, IPP etc.). A player who is already spiking a high shooting percentage or getting massive deployment isn't likely to see a sudden, unanticipated increase in value. The most important factor though is that the player plays for a team that at least reaches the conference finals.

First, a note on process. We will start by running the big board report for season long numbers and then filter by the criteria laid out above. We obviously won't have players who have played 60+ games so we will be adjusting that metric down to 40 games played. I typically set the filters just outside the parameters to catch those who are right on the edge too. That will be our starting list.

Without further ado here are our filtered 14 candidates sorted by current points per game.

Ok so what do we do with this list? At the end of the day, we are looking for players who have some space to grow into a role in the playoffs. These 'unlikely heroes' are players who typically see an increase somewhere. It might be intentional, coaches playing the lines a bit different to matchup an opponent, more total time on ice (because of overtimes etc.), a change in deployment because of an injury, or it could be a spike in shooting percentage or team shooting percentage that benefits a player for a certain time period.

That means, ideally, we would be looking for players who are already doing something in the points or shots category, but have some room to grow in either their deployment (particularly power-play), and shooting percentage.

The two players that stand out here are Sam Bennet and Craig Smith. Bennett has a giant asterisk next to his name because he is injured, because these are full season stats, and he has had a huge change in his deployment upon moving to Florida. That just means he might not really qualify to be on this list – but keep an eye on him anyway. Smith, on the other hand, fits the bill perfectly. He does have some big studs ahead of him taking all the prime deployment, but he has room to grow across the board. Even so, he is shooting and getting in some occasional points. He has also been playing with a rejuvenated Taylor Hall and David Krecji.

Jordan Kyrou and Anthony Beauvillier are names that pop out here, though both of their shooting percentages are a bit high. Their depth charts are a little less star studded than Craig Smith so they have a shot at increased deployment. I would definitely be hoping for more time on the power-play for them if I were grabbing them here.

In the next tier Frank Vatrano, and Erik Haula are all interesting too, but they have spent the year fairly buried on their respective teams and unfortunately it is showing in their current points per game numbers. Vatrano is the most appealing because of his shots, but with all of the new blood in Florida his spot is not secure.

Conversely there are definitely a few players I am avoiding, and Yanni Gourde tops the list. His .64 points per game comes with the highest total power-play time, highest total time on ice, and highest shooting percentage of all the players on this list. Avoid may be a strong word here – sure he may be able to maintain that .64 points per game, so if that is what you are looking for grab him, but I am not seeing a lot of real room for growth in any of these categories.

Josh Anderson is another. He also has high time on ice number, a high shooting percentage, and a quite low points per game number. He has been shooting relatively well compared to this group, but that seems mostly attributed to his higher time on ice. It seems like the opportunity is already there and even with some luck he isn't really taking advantage of it.

Not listed here, but just missed the cut is wild card Joe Thornton.His average point pace isn't great and his power-play time is relatively high. His total ice time is very low, and his shooting percentage is fine. He is a bit of a wild card though as he could get a spin on a top line or top power-play, which definitely makes him a high risk-high reward kind of option.

That is all for this week. Thanks for reading.

Stay safe out there.

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