Ramblings: Connor Finishes Strong, Hintz to Undergo Surgery, Roto Rankings Risers (May 15)

Ian Gooding

2021-05-15

The Leafs and Jets finished off their regular seasons on Friday, with the Jets coming out on top 4-2.

Kyle Connor led the Jets offensively, scoring twice. Connor now has goals in three consecutive games, with four goals, six points, and 11 shots over that span. He's found his form just in time for the playoffs following a slump in which he had not recorded a single point in seven games. In spite of what might seem like a down season, Connor led the Jets with 26 goals and finished second with 50 points.

Connor's linemates Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele assisted on both of Connor's goals.

Paul Stastny and Pierre-Luc Dubois both left this game, but it sounds like the Jets were just being extra cautious in trying to avoid injuries. According to Paul Maurice, both Stastny and Dubois will be in the lineup for the first game of the playoffs.

Pierre Engvall scored another goal for the Leafs, giving him four goals in his last five games. Engvall's linemate Ilya Mikheyev scored a goal of his own, breaking a seven-game pointless drought.

Auston Matthews did not score a goal, so he finishes the season with 41 goals. Unless Connor McDavid can score nine goals against the Canucks (which I wouldn't totally rule out), Matthews will be your Rocket Richard winner. That's exactly what all of our writers thought would happen in our Season Predictions, except for one particular writer who got cute with his prediction and thought Matthews would tie Alex Ovechkin. But I won't mention his name!

Jack Campbell got tagged with the loss, allowing three goals on 23 shots. I figure that Campbell will start Game 1 of the playoffs against Montreal, although Frederik Andersen's return certainly complicates things. Since Games 3 and 4 are back-to-backs, we may very well see both goalies in this series.

As expected, Roope Hintz is expected to undergo surgery next week for the groin tendon issue that bothered him for much of the season. Scoring 43 points in 41 games with this nagging issue is quite the feat, which is something to consider when valuing Hintz for next season. Hopefully the surgery will make him right going forward, so that you don't have to track every game to confirm he is playing. It's easy for guys like me to make light about how the whole "perpetual game-time decision" status is a nuisance, but this sounds bloody painful.

The good news for the Stars is that all of Hintz, Alexander Radulov, and Ben Bishop are expected to be ready for training camp.

With the Bruins and Capitals kicking off the playoffs tomorrow (after a completely meaningless Canucks/Oilers game), our writers and other experts through the Dobber Hockey website have provided their first-round picks as well as their early Stanley Cup predictions. Check them out here. I'm sticking with the Stanley Cup Final prediction that I made before the season (Colorado over Tampa Bay), which isn't something that I always do.

The Roto Rankings for the month of May will be published later today. To keep up with not only feedback but also happenings over the last month, I've made what I think are a ton of updates. As a result, you'll see a few players much higher or lower than before. To give you a sneak peek, here are three players who will be given a major uptick in value.

Tyson Barrie

Barrie will finish the season as the leading scorer among defensemen and among the league leaders in power-play points among defensemen. Compared to Toronto in 2019-20, Barrie has increased his point total while playing 15 fewer games. Much of his improvement in Edmonton has to do with the fact that he is averaging more than a minute more of power-play time than he did in Toronto, where he often had to split duties with Morgan Rielly.

If you're a Barrie keeper owner, you better hope he finds a way to somehow re-sign with the Oilers. That may not happen, as Barrie is expected to hit the free agent market seeking a five- or six-year contract (Oilers Nation). Where he lands and whether he has any competition for PP1 will factor into his long-term value.

Juuse Saros

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When a goalie posts a 3.47 GAA and .882 SV% over the first month of the season but a 1.88 GAA and .941 SV% after that, he's bound to see a massive jump in value. To put it another way, five of Saros' six really bad starts happened in the first half. If not for Saros' exceptional second-half play, the Predators wouldn't be in a playoff spot. How exceptional has Saros been? Since March 18, Saros has a 25.00 GSAA (goals saved above average). The next-highest goalie over that span has a 13.44 GSAA.

Saros has clearly been a second-half goalie over the last two seasons. These are his 2019-20 splits.

QtrGPWLOTLGAASV%QUALQUAL%GSAA
181413.670.882337.5-6.20
2134332.990.899646.2-3.85
3117302.430.924545.54.78
485201.680.951787.510.05

On a side note, that goalie with the 13.44 GSAA since March 18 is Thomas Greiss. I bet you looked away when you saw him on your waiver wire at some point this season. Yes, goaltending has been a guessing game this season.

Alex Nedeljkovic

The fact that two of the three players I've chosen here happen to be goalies shows how volatile this position is. We probably wouldn't have known how strong a goalie Nedeljkovic is if Petr Mrazek hadn't missed two months with a thumb injury. No goalie who played as many games as Nedeljkovic (23) had a lower GAA (1.90) or SV% (.932), yet he's still had to split starts with either Mrazek or James Reimer.

In last weekend's The Journey, Colton Pankiw ranks Ned third behind the more often discussed Kirill Kaprizov and Jason Robertson. I believe Ned deserves to be in the discussion, but I don't think he should surpass either forward because he's played less than half of his team's games. The best seems yet to come for Ned, though. With Mrazek and Reimer both UFAs after the season, Nedeljkovic could very well be the starter for one of the league's strongest teams as early as next season.

For more success stories during the fantasy season, have a listen to the Steve Laidlaw Podcast, where he discusses who should be included on a 2020-21 Fantasy Hockey All-Star Team along with our very own Alex MacLean.

Finally, if you're getting a late start on your playoff pool, there's still time to pick up your Playoff Draft List. The list is interactive, which means you can set it based on the teams you think will go to the final, or use Dobber's picks.

Also, join Dobber's Bracket Challenge. I'm there (Goods Fantasy Hockey), and you might find others that you know from the Dobber community.

For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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